Summary of Work for 10/04/2003 ~ 10/07/2003 with Suggestions

Name: Kyungmin Kim
Date: 10/07/2003

- Brief Summary of Work Procedure
     
     My objective for this week was to compare petroleum resource assessments of the ANWR made in the past and evaluate reliability of each assessment method so that our team could determine the amount and distribution of oil in the ANWR by taking together those previous researches. So, I searched some databases for relevant information and found three reports and some articles.
     One of those three reports is USGS Open File Report 98-34. This is a comprehensive survey of oil resource in the ANWR published in 1998. The other two reports were published by State of Alaska Division of Oil and Gas and Energy Information Administration, but they are of little help because both of them were written based on the USGS report. The articles did not provide the kind of information our team is looking for because they did not have comprehensive quantitative information.


1. Result of Work

     I concluded that our team should base our future work on USGS Open File Report 98-34. It is the most recently published report – also, it is the only one published in the last five years – and contains very thorough information on the amount and distribution of oil reservoirs. This report can be found on http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/OF98-34/.
     I went through some parts of the report, and the main idea of the report is to identify plays and calculate the amount of oil in each play using Monte Carlo method. 
     
* Play: a region of earth which yields oil. A play is characterized by uniform geologic property related to oil produce.


2. Suggestion on team cooperation.

     I think that we should discuss team coordination soon. Our mission cannot be accomplished by one individual team. My idea on team cooperation is as follows:
     
 * Mission 1: Design most environmentally correct strategy for oil exploration and extraction.
- Team 1 provides necessary information on expected amount and distribution of oil to team 2-3.
- Team 2-3 designs exploration and extraction strategy based on the information given by team 1. Team 2-3 cooperates with team 5, 6, 7 for environmental issues.
* Mission 2: Perform Cost-benefit Analysis.
- As a result of work on mission 1, team 8 is provided information on expected production, and can analyze economic impact of oil production in the ANWR based on this information.
- Team 9 and 10 make prediction on sociological and political impact of oil production in the ANWR using the same information.
- Final decision should be made regarding all these effects on the society.


3. Suggestion on our team’s work
     
     I think that at first, we should provide the information on the amount and distribution of oil in the ANWR to team 2-3 in the form team 2-3 demands as soon as possible. I think that we’d better base our work on USGS Open File Report 98-34. 
     
     I think that after then, we should consider the reliability of that report in various ways: We can contact experts, study other previous reports (there are a few researches conducted in 1990s), or make our own modification.