12.000
Mission 2010
Team 2

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What is Mission 2010?



Begg, G. (2001). The values and benefits of wetlands. National Centre for Tropical Wetland Research.
This report highlights the many useful properties of wetlands, stessing the importance of protecting them. The explanations of how wetlands benefit the earth may serve as a guideline for must be done in terms of wetland protection in the face of global warming, as rising sea levels will disrupt and destroy many wetlands.

Church, J. A. (2001). How fast are sea levels rising? Science, 294(5543), 802.
This brief article discusses the idea that thermal expansion of the ocean accounts for most of the sea level rise, and justifies this conclusion by drawing on another study. The article asserts the importance of reconciling different models and observations of sea level rise in order to make accurate predictions for the future, and maintains that the central question is to determine how good the spatial pattern of ocean thermal expansion is.

Church, J. A., & White, N. J. (2006). A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(1), 01602.
This brief article presents evidence for acceleration of sea level rise during the 20th century using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) from satellite altimeter data. The study finds that the acceleration of sea level rise for the 20th century, about 0.008 + 0.008 mm/yr2, is smaller than the acceleration from 1870 to 2001, about 0.013 + 0.006 mm/yr2. It predicts that if the same acceleration is maintained through the 21st century, the sea level in 2100 will be 310 + 30 mm higher than in 1990.

Church, J. A., White, N. J., Coleman, R., Lambeck, K., & Mitrovica, J. X. (2004). Estimates of the regional distribution of sea level rise over the 1950-2000 period. Journal of Climate, 17(13), 2609-2625.
This study attemps to improve understanding of sea level rise by combining the benefits of satellite imagery with those of a tide gauge dataset. It includes an in-depth look at the datasets and methodology used to determine the rates of sea level rise for the period from 1993-2000 and from 1950-2000. A major conclusion of the study is the value of the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) tide gauge network, which was used in determining the global averaged mean sea level rise, which was found to be 1.8 + 0.3 mm/yr.

Dean, C. (2006, September 9, 2006). Time to move the Mississippi, experts say. [Electronic version]. The New York Times, Retrieved November 10, 2006, from nytimes.com database.
This article emphasizes the fact that many scientists now agree that a diversion of the Mississippi River is essential to preserving the Gulf Coast. It outlines a specific plan for moving the river, along with potential pitfalls. This information could be very useful if the class decides to incorporate a diversion of the river into the final plan.

Donn, W. L., & Shaw, D. M. (1963). Sea level and climate of the past century. Science, 142(3596), 1166-1167.
This very brief article provides an overview of sea level trends during the past century based on tide gauge data from different stations around the United States. The purpose of the study is to establish a correlation between sea level trends and global climate change. It is found that the average rate of sea level rise for the western coast of the US is about half of that for the eastern coast, showing that regional data cannot be considered typical of global sea level rise.

Emery, K. O. (1980). Relative sea levels from tide-gauge records. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 77(12, [Part 1: Physical Sciences]), 6968-6972.
This study provides both short-term and long-term global sea level rise predictions by compiling monthly and annual mean sea level data from a previous study and supplementing it with data from six stations in the People's Republic of China. The results predict a long term sea level rise of anywhere between 0-5 mm/yr for low and middle latitudes, and up to 14 mm/yr around the Gulf of Mexico. Short term predictions are in the range of 1-1.5 mm/yr. Overall, the results show a relative rate of sea level rise that is 2-3 times the rate found in similar studies prior to the 1970s. 

Gornitz, V., Lebedeff, S., & Hansen, J. (1982). Global sea level trend in the past century. Science, 215(4540), 1611-1614.
This study uses tide-gauge measurements to estimate sea level rise over the previous century.  A trend of about 1 mm/yr is found, and this is related to the trend in global surface air temperature. It is concluded that a large part of the sea level rise is due to thermal expansion of the upper ocean, and a small part to some melting of the ice sheets. The study also predicts a continued rise in sea level, approximately 20-30 cm over a period of 70 years due to thermal expansion of seawater.

Gumbel, A. (2006, September 20, 2006 Wednesday). Mississippi turning. The Independent (London), pp. 26.
This article discusses the problem of land loss in southern Louisiana and presents a radical plan to solve it. The plan, developed by the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, involves shifting the course of the lower Mississippi in order to allow wetlands to rebuild themselves. The article discusses previous interactions between humans and the river and presents the pros and cons of putting the new plan into action.

Hay, John & Mimura, Nobuo. (2005). Sea-level rise: Implications for water resources management. Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 10(4), 717-737.
This study observes the impacts that an increasing sea level will have on different areas of water resources management. It points out various impacts that sea level rise will have, including an increase in wetland erosion, inundation and flooding, reach of storm surges, seawater intrustion into surface waters and coastal aquifers, and encroachment of seawater into estuaries and river systems. For each of these hazards, it goes into detail to explain and quantifity each and make suggestions of what can be done to lessen the impact. The study concludes that solutions should try to prevent and anticipate as much as possible and incorporate autonomous adaptation.

Liu, S. K. (1997). Using coastal models to estimate effects of sea level rise. Ocean & Coastal Management, 37(1), 85.
 This study uses a numerical model of the China Sea to  observe effects of sea level rise.  Sea level was increased by 1 meter to make comparisons with the current conditions, and two different cases were considered: one in which the model was driven only by astronomical tides, and one involving a typhoon moving toward the coast. It was found that rising sea levels brought breaking waves further inland, leading to increased flood damage and beach erosion, and in the second case, surge height increased by about 20% during the passage of the storm.

Louisiana Wetland Protection Panel. (1987). Saving louisiana's coastal wetlands: The need for a long-term plan of action No. EPA-230-02-87-026). Grand Terre Island, LA: United States Environmental Protection Agency.
This report expresses the need for a long-term method of preserving the coastal wetlands of Louisiana, and is very in-depth in outlining and explaining the various strategies of doing so. The information in this report could be infinitely useful to the team as it examines each method of wetland protection in detail, explaining which methods are most effective and why.

Marmer, H. A. (1948). Is the Atlantic coast sinking? The evidence from the tide. Geographical Review, 38(4), 652-657.
This study compares sea level data from several different locations. It notes that all stations showed yearly variations in sea level. The observations prove that the Atlantic coast has been subsiding at a rate of 0.02 ft/yr since 1930, but it is unclear whether this subsidence is absolute or relative. 

Meehl, G. A., Washington, W. M., Collins, W. D., Arblaster, J. M., Hu, A., & Buja, L. E., et al. (2005). How much more global warming and sea level rise? Science, 307(5716), 1769-1772.
This article explains how, even if greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere had been stabilized in 2000, we would still be committed to an additional 0.4 to 0.6 degrees Celsius rise in global temperature by 2100. It uses two models, the Parallel Climate Model and the Community Climate System Model version 3, to justify these conclusions and predict sea level rise for the next century, using three different scenarios: a low-estimate scenario, a medium-range scenario, and a high-estimate scenario.

Michener, W. K., Blood, E. R., Bildstein, K. L., Brinson, M. M., & Gardner, L. R. (1997). Climate change, hurricanes and tropical storms, and rising sea level in coastal wetlands. Ecological Applications, 7(3), 770-801.
This in-depth study provides a background of the earth's wetlands and attempts to assess all possible effects, both positive and negative, that global warming and sea level rise could have on them. The paper looks at the possible ecological responses of wetlands to sea level rise, hurricanes and tropical storms, and assesses the vulnerability of wetlands to these conditions. In the colnclusion, it suggests actions that should be taken to increase understanding of climate change and how it will impact wetlands.

Nicholls, R. J., Marchand, M., & Hoozemans, F. M. J. (1999). Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: Regional and global analyses. Global Environmental Change Part A: Human & Policy Dimensions, 9(4), S69.
This article examines data from the Fast Track Programme in great depth in analyzing the potential impacts of sea level rise on both coastal flooding due to storm surges and loss of coastal wetlands. It adjusts the model used by a previous study for observing coastal flooding and develops a dynamic, non-linear model for wetland losses. The paper presents many details of this methodology before presenting the results gained for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, both globally and regionally.

Pelley, S. (2005). New orleans is sinking; some questioning whether or not New Orleans should be rebuilt. 60 Minutes.
This presentation of 60 Minutes provides conflicting opinions as to whether or not New Orleans should be rebuilt and gives reasoning for each argument. The main argument against rebuilding is the prediction that by the end of the century, the city will be completely offshore. It is argued that the only way to stop this from happening is to reverse the constant land loss on the Mississippi delta by a massive restoration of wetlands.

Shennan, I. (1993). Sea-level changes and the threat of coastal inundation. The Geographical Journal, 159(2), 148-156.
This article attempts to determine the severity of the threat of inundation to the coastal lowlands of Great Britain due to sea level rise. The study looks at the history of Great Britain's coastal lowlands in order to further understand their future and what must be done to preserve them.  It notes that the predicted sea level rise until 2050 is much greater than any changes experienced in the past 700 years, and if the sea level rises to the point that protection by beach, dune and marsh systems is decreased, the potential for inundation will rise substantially. 

Shuang-Ye Wu, Yarnal, B., & Fisher, A. (2002). Vulnerability of coastal communities to sea-level rise: A case study of Cape May County, New Jersey, USA. Climate Research, 22(3), 255.
This study uses Cape May County, NJ, as a case study to examine the potential effects of sea level rise on coastal communities. It begins by explaining the meaning of vulnerability and describing the area studied. It then looks into the various aspects of vulnerability, including the risk of flooding due to storm surges, damage to ecosystems, and social vulnerability. A major conclusion is that sea level rise will increase the amount of land exposed to high flood risk, increasing the overall vulnerability of Cape May County and exposing an increased number of vulnerable subgroups to the risk of flooding.

Sullivan, B. (2006). Impact of Katrina exodus felt far and wide. MSNBC.  This article describes the migration of refugees in the aftermath of Katrina. It examines St. Tammany's Parish most closely, which relates to Team 2's proposed solution of moving many New Orleans residents to the North Shore. The article examines how the influx of refugees boosted the North Shore's economy, providing support for the proposed plan.

Thomson, D. M., Shaffer, G. P., & McCorquodale, J. A. (2001/12). A potential interaction between sea-level rise and global warming: Implications for coastal stability on the Mississippi River deltaic plain. Global and Planetary Change, 32(1), 49-59.

Titus, J. G., Kuo, C. Y., Gibbs, M. J., LaRoche, T. B., & Webb, M. K. (1987). Greenhouse effect, sea level rise, and coastal drainage systems. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management (ASCE) JWRMD5, Vol.113.
This article examines the impact of sea level rise on coastal drainage systems and provides solutions for keeping drainage systems functioning as sea levels continue rising. This information may be particularly useful for the city planning team, which must take into account New Orleans' drainage systems when planning for rebuilding the city.

Titus, J. G., & Narayanan, V. K. (1995). Probability of sea level rise. United States.
This paper goes very in-depth in determining the probability and magnitude of sea level rise over various periods of time, up to 2200. The paper takes into account all known possible contributions to sea level rise and through complex methodology provides a formula for projecting sea level rise. Values of estimated sea level rise are given for different time frames and different probabilities. 

Walsh, K. J. E., Betts, H., Church, J., Pittock, A. b., McInnes, K. L., & Jackett, D. R., et al. (2004). Using sea level rise projections for urban planning in Australia. Journal of Coastal Research, 20(2), 586-598.
This article divides projected sea level rise into several main components and discusses each in detail, for both global and regional sea level rise. It then uses data from global climate models (GCMs) to estimate future global and regional temperature changes and sea level rise, and incorporates these data into planning for future sea level rise in Australia. It notes the importance of using both global and regional data in site-specific planning and also points out that a problem remains for future planning in the wide range of estimates available.

Woodworth, P. L., & Blackman, D. L. (2004). Evidence for systematic changes in extreme high waters since the mid-1970s. Journal of Climate, 17(6), 1190-1197.
This article focuses on studying sea level changes of the past century and predictions for the future by looking at changes in extreme high waters rather than mean sea level (MSL), using the percentile time series analysis. It is found that there is significant evidence for increases in extreme high water levels since 1975, as well as a correlation between these changes and changes in regional climate. 

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Last updated 11/28/06