MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

SLOAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT

15.933 ADVANCED STRATEGIC MANAGMENT

Fall, 1997 Prof. Louis Thomas

Office Hours: TBA E52-536

E-mail : Lathomas@mit.edu

253-3781

ADMINISTRATIVE ISSUES

Course Overview

This is an advanced course in strategic management. This course will have a particular strong emphasis on competitive strategy and will apply some basic tools from economics to examine the strategic decisions that managers make. We will examine those decisions concerning pricing, capacity investment, advertising, new product introductions, research and development, and organizational design. The course will integrate traditional economic models with case study materials.

Course Materials

Bulk Pack

Class Handouts

Evaluation

Grades will be based on two exams, case analyses, and class participation. The relative

weights of the components are as follows:

First exam 35%

Second exam 35%

Case analysis and 30%

class participation

I. Course Introduction

Session 1 - Introduction

Readings

A New Tool to Help Managers

The Right Game: Use Game theory to Shape Strategy

Understanding Rivalry: Game Theory

II. Competitive Strategy

A. Price Competition

In this section we will examine the strategies incumbent firms can use to maintain their

position in the product market. We will examine the use of price and advertising as

barriers to entry.

Session 2- Entry Barriers A and B

Readings

Case: Entry Barriers (A)- (B) (9-190-101,9-101-102)

Fall For Philip Morris

Questions for the Readings

(A) case

1. As a potential entrant into the industry how do you assess the possible reaction of the incumbent firm to your entry? Do you expect to be accommodated?

** Assume that the entrant must show a profit by/in quarter 12**

(B) Case

1. In the absence of a law limiting the use of advertising, how many firms do you expect to see in the market and how much will they spend on advertising?

2. Suppose there is currently a sole incumbent firm in the industry? Should it lobby for the proposed law limiting the use of advertising?

Session 3: Pricing to Deter Entry

Readings

Entry-Deterring Strategies

Dynamic Pricing Rivalry

The Coffee Wars

Can Anyone win the Coffee War?

How to Escape a Price War

Questions for Coffee Industry

1. Evaluate General Food's Strategy to deter P&G in the 1970's. In light of the models discuss the results of this strategy.

2. There are only two or three major competitors in this industry. Generally, one would think that few players implies greater profitability. Why isn't this true for the coffee industry?

Session 4: Fog of Business

Readings:

Case: The Fog of Business (9-793-098)

Questions:

1. Should player E1 enter market 1?

2. In answering 1, above, what assumptions are you making as to what E1 believes- about the players' rationality, about what the players believe about one another's rationality, and so on?

Session 5: Signalling Costs

Readings

Case: Signalling Costs (9-793-125)

Reputation and Corporate Strategy: A Review of recent Theory and Applications

Questions:

1. Might player A want to try to signal its cots position to player B?

2. Is there a way for it to do so? In answering, pay particular attention to the question of the credibility of any signal that A might send B.

Session 6: War of Attrition

Readings:

Hold or Fold? The War of Attrition (9-794-092)

Questions:

1. For how long would you advise player A to fight?

B. Strategies to Lessen Competition

Session 7: Toy Game

Readings:

The Toy Game (9-795-121)

Questions:

1. First suppose that neither Matchbox nor Hot Wheels gives out rebate coupons. What price or prices do you expect Matchbox and Hot Wheels cars to fetch?

2. Next suppose that Matchbox, but not Ht Wheels, gives out rebate coupons. What price or prices do you expect Matchbox and Hot Wheels cars to fetch now?

3. Next suppose that both Matchbox and Hot Wheels give out rebate coupons. What price or prices do you expect Matchbox and Hot Wheels to fetch now?

Session 8: Contracts with customers

Readings:

Practices that Credibly Facilitate Oligopoly Coordination

American Airlines Value Pricing (A) and (B) (9-594-001, 9-594-019)

Questions:

1. Evaluate American Airlines value pricing scheme? Under what conditions will it work?

Session 9: Promotional Pricing

Readings:

Mixed Strategies

II. Industry Analysis

A. Commitment and Competitive Strategy

Session 10- Taxonomy of Business Strategies

Readings

Commitment: How Narrowing Options Can Improve Competitive Positions

Session 11- Commitment and Competitive Strategy

Readings

Case: Nucor at a Crossroads (9-793-039)

Questions:

  1. Why has Nucor performed so well in the past?
  2. How attractive do the economics of thin-slab casting look?
  3. Is thin-slab casting likely to afford Nucor a sustainable competitive advantage?
  4. How should Nucor think about the uncertainties surrounding thin-slab casting?

B. Sunk Costs and Market Structure

Session 12- Sunk Costs and Market Structure: Five Forces Reconsidered

Readings

Sunk Costs and Market Structure

Advertising Sunk Costs and Credible Spatial Preemption

Session 13: Advertising Sunk Costs

Readings:

Case: Gillette launch of sensor (9-792-028)

Questions

  1. What sort of competitive game has been played out historically in the wet shaving industry?
  2. How well did Gillette respond to BIC's attack in disposables?
  3. Should FLAG have been introduces as a disposable or as a cartridge razor?
  4. Do the economics for Sensor appear attractive?
  5. How aggressively should Symons launch Sensor?
  6. When should a company cannibalize its own products?

Session 14: Advertising Sunk Costs Continued

Readings:

Case: Coors (9-388-014)

Questions

  1. Why did the brewing industry consolidate?
  2. What factors accounted for Coors's advantage in the mid-70's?
  3. Why has Coors's performance since then deteriorated?


Session 15: In Class Midterm Examination

III. Technology Competition

A. Imitation

Session 16- Innovation and quick imitation

Readings

Case: Minnetonka (N9-795-163)

Innovation and Imitation (9-187-160)

Questions

1. What was Minnetonka's strategy prior to the launch of Softsoap?

2. Compare Minnetonka's experiences in the soap and toothpaste business. How do you explain the differences?

  1. Why did Minnetonka shift from "mass to class" in the mid-1980's?

Questions for Innovation and Imitation

1. You are the strategic manager at firm A. You decide to spend $C on new product advertising. You realize that managers at firm B will probably copy your product and follow you into the market. You believe that managers at B will also spend $c on advertising. For various levels of advertising dollars, predict the response of B's managers. Given these beliefs, what should you do?

2. Suppose that marketing research has predicted that $9.5 million must be spent on new product advertising. What strategic choice would you make?

3. The probability of success has now increased to 90%. Would this change in beliefs affect your optimal strategy given in question 2?

B. Patent Races

Session 17-Races for New Technology

Readings

An R&D Race (9-190-108)

The Incentive to Innovate

Tinkers versus dreamers

Pentium pretenders

Questions for R&D Race

Firm A is a monopolist in an industry currently earning flow profits of $5 per period.

Entry into the industry is difficult because A holds a patent on the existing technology.

However, the possibility of an alternative new technology has become apparent. If

successful, the new technology will supersede and completely replace the old one. A

monopolist operating with the new technology would earn flow profits of $10 per period.

Suppose that firm B is a potential entrant and that A and B are engaged in a race to

develop the new process. Whichever firm succeeds in getting the patent will acquire the

status of a monopolist.

Suppose that the R&D technology is the same as in a single stage of "An R&D race"

5. Do you expect the incumbent firm to survive? Why?

6. First, consider an industry where there is no threat of entry. What are the incentives to engage in R&D of a monopolist in this industry? Now suppose the industry consists of a duopoly. How do the incentives of the two duopolists compare with those of a monopolist?

7. Next, suppose that the industry faces the threat of entry. How do the incentives to innovate facing (a) an incumbent monopolist and (b) a potential entrant, compare?

Is rapid innovation necessarily associated with rapid changes in incumbency?

C. New Product Competition

Session 18: Power Play

Readings:

Power Play (B): Sega in 16-bit Video Games (9-795-103)

Power Play (C ): 3DO in 32-bit Video Games (9-795-104)

Sega Leaps Ahead by Shipping New Player Early

  1. Evaluate NEC's and Sega's strategies for challenging Nintendo in the video game business.

  1. Why did Nintendo delay introducing a 16-bit video game system?

3. Evaluate Trip Hawkins' strategy for changing the video-game game.


IV. Corporate Strategy

A. Diversification and Market Entry

Session 19- Entry Choices

Readings

Case: Judo and the art of entry (9-794-103)

Questions

1. Suppose that: (a) each buyer has a willingness-to-pay of $200 for one unit of either the incumbent's or the entrant's product; and (b) both incumbent and entrant have a $100 unit cost of serving buyers. Formulate a strategy for the entrant. How much money can the entrant make?

2. Now suppose that: (a) each buyer has a willingness-to-pay of $200 for one unit of the incumbent's product and $160 for one unit of the entrant's product, and (b) the incumbent has a $100 unit cost and the entrant a $120 unit cots. Formulate a strategy for the entrant. How much money can the entrant make?

3. Finally, suppose that: (a) each buyer has a willingness-to-pay of $200 for one unit of either the incumbent's or the entrant's product; and (b) the incumbent has a $120 unit cost and the entrant an $80 unit cost. Formulate a strategy for the entrant. How much money can the entrant make this time?

4. How much value does the entrant add in each of the games described in 1,2,and 3 above? How does the amount of value that the entrant adds in each game compare with the amount of money it can make in the game? Explain the differences (if any) between the two quantities.

Session 20: Multimarket Contact

Readings

Multimarket contact and long term competition (9-190-144)

Multiple Point Competition

Questions:

1. Your consulting firm is asked to analyze the markets by one of the players. One suggestion to increase performance would be for the four firms to merge into two separate conglomerates, each of which operated in both markets. Comment on this strategy; specifically if and formed conglomerate A, and and formed conglomerate B.

2. Suppose an additional firm (C) operates in one of the markets. Hence, market I has three firms (A,B,C) and market II has two firms (A,B). Even if costs are zero, firm C would seemingly have an advantage over A and B since if the firms charge the same price, C's market share would be 50% and A and B would split the rest. Now, what are the implications of firms and forming a single firm? What are the implications for the two B firms forming into a single firm?

3. Suppose the markets have four firms (2 firms in A and 2 in B). However, the individual firms have different cost functions. Specifically, the unit costs of product are:


So, firm A has a cost advantage over firm B in market 1, and B has a cost advantage over A in market 2. How would these differences in cost structures affect the optimality of the merger strategy considered above?

Session 21: Diversification through new product entry

Readings

Case: Competition and Product variety (9-190-100)

Economics of product variety (9-191-099)

NBC Takes Aim at Tuesday Nights

Questions

1. Which product types will managers at firms A and B decide to manufacture? State the logic underlying your beliefs?

2. Assume that firm A enters the market first. If A's managers wish to deter entry by B, which products should they produce and why?

3. Assume A has a monopoly position. What products should A's managers produce and why? Do A's managers want to serve the entire market?

4. Suppose the marginal "psychic costs" of consumers increase. Will this affect the choice of products that the firms produce and why? Will the resulting profits remain the same, or will they change?

hint: Remember that the model is symmetric since demand is uniform. That is the prices

and profits are the same if one product is at 0 and the other at 1 as if one product were at

4 and the other at 3.

Session 22: Credible Spatial Preemption

Readings

Case: The Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry in 1994 (9-795-191,9-796-122)

Product proliferation and preemption (9-190-117)

Effects of Diversification on Entry and Exit Decisions

Questions

1. Why has RTE cereals been such a profitable business? What changes have led to the current industry "crisis?

2. Why have private labels been able to enter this industry successfully? How do the cost structures of private label and branded cereal manufacturers differ?

3. What does General Mills hope to accomplish with its April 1994 reduction in trade promotions and prices?

4. What are the risks associated with these actions? How do you expect General Mills' competitors to respond?

5. What should General Mills do?

Questions for Product proliferation and preemption

1. Suppose firm A is a monopolist and anticipates no near-future entry. If you were the strategic manager at A, how many products would you introduce (and why?), and how would you position the products?

2. Assume you are the strategic planner at firm B, a potential market entrant. Given your choice of strategic action (for A), would you enter the market, and if yes, how would you position your product?

Session 23 - Capacity Preemption

Readings

Case: Du Pont's Titanium Dioxide Business (A) (9-390-112)

Questions

1. What are the major cost drivers in this industry and what is their impact on Du Pont's Competitive position?

2. Should Du Pont pre-empt?

Session 24 - Capacity Preemption

Du Pont's Titanium Dioxide Business continued

B. Strategies in Declining Industries

Session 25- Exit

Readings

Case: The Ethyl Corporation in 1979 (9-388-075)

C. Vertical Contracting

Session 26- Vertical Contracting

Readings

Vertical Restrictions

Federal Investigation of Appliance Makers Involves Advertising

US Investigating No-Haggle Car Pricing

Is General Nutrition Headed for Civil War?

Big Three's Methods of Selling Vehicles to Rental Firms Being Probed by US