Causes and Prevention of War, 17.423 —
Cramer, Gabbitas, and Goldstone
March 30, 2000

Andrea Gabbitas, Guest Lecturer

The Pacific War — Background & History

I. Introduction

II. The Early Road to War

    A.  Background
      1.  "Open Door" policy in China (initiated in 1899) - Japanese sees a threat to its sphere of influence
      2.  Lessons Japan drew from WWI — beliefs about future wars
       
        • belief in the importance of "total mobilization"
        • mobilizing the public for war — propaganda and education as tools
        • need for a large resource base that would allow Japan to survive a protracted war of attrition
        • expansion for resources
        • Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere
         
      3.  Japanese internal politics — factions and logrolling

      4.  Lack of civilian control over the Japanese military

      5.  Russia as Japan's main enemy
       

    B.  The Manchurian Crisis (1931-1932) & the ceasefire with China (1933)
     
      1.  Japan’s interest in Manchuria: raw materials, investment, forward defenses

      2.  Mukden incident (18 September 1931) & the Kwantung Army - Japan fabricates a conflict

      3.  U.S. response is weak - isolationism at home, depression, conflicts in the Americas

      4.  Japan heads to Shanghai

      5.  Japan’s take-away lesson

III. Japan seeks a "New Order" in Asia
 
A.  Japan drops the Washington Treaty (signed 1922)
1.  The history of the Treaty

2.  Japan becomes dissatisfied - Japan no longer seeks to preserve the status quo & the U.S. builds up its forces

B.  Continued Pressure for Expansion
1.  Divisions within Japan - war is coming, but with whom?
a.  civilian divisions - organizational interests
b.  military divisions - organizational interests and strategic debate
2.  Japan’s increasing isolation
C. Resumption of war with China (1937) 1.  The rape of Nanking (Nanjing)

2.  The U.S. seeks a "Quarantine"

 D. Diplomatic Realignments
1. The Nazi-Soviet Pact
2. The Tripartite Pact
E. The Japanese don’t want war with the U.S., but they see only 2 options at this point:
  1.  Cooperate with the U.S. and Britain, lose conquests, and be a 3rd rate power

2. Gain as much territory as possible and fight, even though they probably won’t win
 

 IV. The slipknot tightens
A. U.S. and Japan on a collision course
1.  Japan plans to expand southward to capture critical resources

2.  U.S. increases cooperation with Britain & China, begins economic sanctions

3.  Japan expands into French Indochina

4.  Early predictions by Grew are right

5.  Japanese strategic debate - go north or south?

• windows in both directions
• poor evaluation
V. Japan goes to war
A.  Attempts to negotiate a settlement — conflicting demands, no room for agreement
1.  U.S. proposes the "four points"

2.  U.S. thinks Japan is bluffing

B.  War plans and deadline for decision 1.  Last-minute diplomacy fails
  C.  Over the brink - Japan decides to attack Pearl Harbor

1.  Voices of the Japanese military
2.  Damage to U.S. forces
3.  Japan’s quick grab of the islands to the south
4.  Was this a reasonable strategic decision for Japan?

 VI. The world responds
A. Britain is relieved

B. The U.S. rallies for war - America volunteers in droves

C. German miscalculation - the declaration of war

VII. An explosive aftermath — the atomic bomb
A. U.S. demands "unconditional surrender"

B. Russia plans to enter the war August 15th

C. Did we need to drop the bomb?

1. Invasion of Japan?
2. Military surrender?
D. Last move of the Pacific War or first move of the Cold War?