17.423 / Causes & Prevention of War / May 12, 1998
Van Evera & Mendeloff


                     THE FUTURE OF WAR & SOLUTIONS TO WAR


I.  TESTING THEORIES: CAN WE TEST THEORIES OF THE CAUSES OF WAR WITH THE CASES 
COVERED IN THIS COURSE?
    Evaluate the cross-time, cross-space, and within-case predictions of:
    A.  Offense-defense theory:
        1.  Cross-time: when should we find wars?
        2.  Cross-space: who should start wars?  Insecure states like ... 
            Germany!  Other continental powers.
    B.  Militarism theory.  What to make of a theory that passes some tests and 
        flunks others?

    Questions:
    --  Does the application of hard science methods to the war problem (as done 
        in this class) produce useful results?  If not, what should we do 
        instead?
    --  Can political science ever offer better answers, achieve knowledge     
        cumulation, etc.?

II.  WAR'S FUTURE: THE KAYSEN PUZZLE
    A.  The current picture: the world is in flames, but today's 37 wars (which 
        killed several hundred thousand people last year) are all civil!
    B.  The shortterm picture:  
        1.  Western Europe looks safe.
        2.  Conflicts on many short lists:
            a.  Russia follows in Serbia's footsteps, uses force to recover 
                Russian diaspora in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Estonia.
            b.  China-Taiwan.
            c.  North-South Korea.
            d.  Inter-Arab (some variant on the 1991 Gulf War.)
            e.  China-U.S. Cold War: the world's top two states again 
                clash for global power.
    C.  The longterm picture:  Kaysen v. "Factor 'X'"  Reasons for war are 
        declining, but war itself may not be.  Why is this?


III.  SOME SOLUTIONS TO WAR
    A.  World Government?  An old-time favorite solution.  Are you for it?
    B.  Collective Security?  Another popular solution.  Would it work?  (It's 
        already been tried, cf., League of Nations 1919-1939.  Why did it fail?)
    C.  Disarmament? A popular solution with serious shortcomings.  (We've 
        talked about them--see early classes on arms and war.)
    D.  Hegemonic America--the USA polices the world.  Good idea?
        1.  Would it work?  Would the USA prevent more wars than it caused?
            a.  Does the US have the needed power?
            b.  Does the US have the needed wisdom?
        2.  Would such policing serve US interests?  (Do faraway wars do much 
            injury to the US?)
        3.  Will the US in fact be willing to play this role in the future?
    E.  Nuclear proliferation?  (End the security dilemma with a technical     
        fix...)
    F.  National Perceptual Engineering?  E.g. Track II diplomacy--organized
        contacts between elites, hoping to cure their myths about each other?
        "Amnesia International"--replicate globally the work of the Eckert 
        Institute (a.k.a. Brunswick Schoolbook Institute).  Or, regarding other 
        bad ideas, imitate the efforts of the B'nai B'rith anti-defamation 
        league; create institutions that track and oppose war-causing ideas, and 
        that contend with the sources of these ideas.  Is this too crazy to 
        consider?
    G.  Global values engineering?  Can war someday be delegitimated, perhaps by 
        the work of religious institutions, much as slavery and duelling have 
        now been delegitimated worldwide?
    H.  Be Evaluative Units Yourselves!  You can be part of the answer.