Handout // April 11, 2000

17.423

The Cold War and Korea

I. What caused the Cold War? Who caused the Cold War? Six explanations:

1.) Communist totalitarian expansionism: "The totalitarian Soviets were the aggressor, the democratic West the defender. Soviet aggression sprang from the aggressiveness of the Communist political systems. Communist governments are aggressive because they are a.) inherently messianic­preaching the ideology of the need for Communist global conquest; b.) frail­they need enemies to legitimate totalitarian rule."
  Variant #1: Soviet expansion into Eastern Europe threatened western security.

Variant #2: Soviet expansion into Eastern Europe was opposed for domestic political/cultural/ideological reasons.

Variant #3: Western softness early in the Cold war made things war­appeasement led the Soviets forward. (Hence insufficient western toughness caused the Cold War.)
 

 2.) Communist totalitarian cruelty and barbarism: "The west opposed the USSR because the USSR was aggressive and tyrannical­the Cold War was a Western human rights crusade."

3.) Capitalist expansionism? "The US led capitalist West was the aggressor­the socialist Soviet union was the defender."

4.) Revolutionary v. Oligarchic states? "Both sides were aggressors: revolutionary states are messianic and frightened; their neighbors are defensively aggressive, and polluted by émigrés."

5.) The unshaped postwar Order/Collapse of German Empire? "The lack of clear Soviet-American wartime agreements on the postwar partition of the German empire caused a collision of the two major allied powers in a zone of uncertainty. If spheres of influence had been more clear, the Cold war would have been milder or avoided."

6.) International System: Bipolarity and the Security Dilemma? The world’s strongest states never get along well, as each is the main threat to the other. They will always compete for security. The Cold war was inevitable because of the anarchic system.

A real contest or a misperceived contest?

Did the Cold War spiral?

 

 II. How the Cold War Erupted: A. Poland and Eastern Europe: 1. Warsaw Uprising, August 1-October 2, 1944. For 63 days the Polish non-communists attempt to take Warsaw from the Germans. Stalin’s army, within eyesight, sits inertly by as the Poles get slaughtered by the Germans.

2. Stalin (kind of) promises at Yalta (Feb. 1945) to allow democracy in Poland; then he imposes communism instead.
 

 B. Iran 1946: Stalin won’t leave northern Iran until he is pressured.

C. Turkey 1946: Stalin wants some Turkish territory; instead Truman sends the Missouri to the Mediterranean (a threatening show of force.)

D. Greece 1947: the West thought Stalin was instigating the Communist revolt in Greece (he wasn’t­aid and inspiration were coming from Communists outside of Greece, but Yugoslavia’s Tito government was the source.)
 

Truman Doctrine: to support "free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or outside pressures."
  E. Berlin Crisis of 1948-1949­an outgrowth of the struggle for Germany.

F. Military aspects:
 

1. The illusion of Soviet military superiority. American intelligence and the Western Press depicted a vast Soviet conventional superiority in Europe, and downplayed the implications of the American atomic monopoly. Hence a Soviet threat that was largely political (the Soviets had some capacity and desire to disrupt and subvert Western Europe) was also (even primarily) perceived as a military threat.

2. The Soviet atomic bomb explodes, Sept. 1949. Now the West is really scared. What if Stalin isn’t deterrable?
 

 What were the major Western moves? The Marshall Plan (1947) [major justification: "If Europe becomes communist, the American way of life would be imperiled."]; the Berlin airlift (1948-1949); the formation of NATO (1949); and a vast military buildup (1950-1953)­triggering a Soviet counter-buildup. And away we go.
  III. An Outline of the Cold War, 1947 —1991: A. 1950’s­US nuclear superiority; Soviets mainly pursue a WWII-type conventional build-up.

B. 1962­Cuban Missile crisis. Soviets attempt to redress their inferiority/vulnerability. A close call!

C. Late 1960s­MAD recognized (but always resisted!)

D. Early 1970s­US and China become friends. Détente between US and USSR.

E. 1980s­Détente fully rejected by Reagan­a massive US buildup pursued.

F. 1985­Gorbachev comes to power­soon pursues Glasnost and Perestroika.

G. November 9, 1989­Berlin wall is opened. Sept.-Dec.--Eastern European nations leave Soviet bloc.

H. August 1991­Coup attempt against Gorbachev fails­Gorbachev resigns in Dec.; USSR breaks up into six independent republics: Armenia, Belorussia, Kazakhstan; Kirghizia, Ukraine and Russia.
 

 IV. Korean War, 1950: What Happened: A. The partition of Korea, 1945.

B. The US pulls all US troops out of Korea, 1949. A US blunder.

C. Communist victory in China --> "Who lost China" debate in USA.

D. Dean Acheson’s January 1950 speech delineating the "American defense perimeter in Asia." He omitted South Korea! (Another American blunder, of sorts.)

E. North Korea attacks South Korea, June 25, 1950. Why? Kim Il Sung and Stalin expect the US will not intervene; or that the North can crush the South before the US can intervene effectively. A huge miscalculation.

F. Truman decides to intervene. Reasons:
 

1. To preserve US credibility. (But was it engaged in Korea?)

2. Domestic politics­1950 was a bad year to lose another Asian country to Communism.
 

 G. U.S. landing at Inchon, Sept. 15, 1950: US routs North Korean army from South Korea; Truman decides to cross 38th parallel & conquer North Korea, September. (An American mega-blunder.)

H. Oct. 3, 1950 (& again on Oct. 9): China warns the Truman administration "don’t cross the 38th parallel or it is war with us!" Truman and Acheson don’t listen; troops cross the 38th parallel Oct. 7.  Why?
 

1. The warning came via an Indian diplomat, not trusted by Truman.

2. The Chinese did not explain the reasoning behind their warning, or include Congressional republicans among those who received it.

3. The Administration had already decided to cross the parallel; backtracking is painful.

4. Truman feared attacks from Republican hawks if he stayed south.

5. American contempt for Chinese military capability.
 

 I. US encounters small Chinese forces in Korea, Oct. 26, 1950; MacArthur thinks, "if this is all they can do, they’ll be a pushover." And orders an advance to the Yalu. (another mega-blunder.)

J. Massive Chinese surprise attack on US forces in North Korea, Nov. 26, 1950­routing US army &driving it from North Korea. The worst defeat in US army history!

K. A long and bloody war ensues, Dec. 1950-summer 1953, ending in a tie. China tries and fails to drive the US from Korea. (Note: This war included a long-hidden Soviet-American air war!)
 

 V. Korean War, US-China War: What caused them? A. Background misperceptions:
  1. American self sugar-coating: "We’ve always been nice to China (so China has nothing to fear from us!")

2. Chinese myths about US: "America helped Japanese aggressors in the 1930s! America is plotting to rebuild and unleash Japan in Asia against China." Marxist-Leninist dogma shapes Chinese thought.
 

 B. Non-strategy: By the USA? No­the problem was that Acheson did state US strategy, misstated it. A misstated strategy is worse than none. By China? Yes. China told the US in late Sept. that it wouldn’t intervene and then changed its mind­but too late.

C. Absence of Sino-American diplomatic relations (another mega-blunder by both sides!)

D. McCarthyism in the US? A very powerful force­what caused it?

E. First-strike advantage. This is the likely reason why China never issued a clear ultimatum, but instead tried to convince the US of China’s weakness.

F. US window after Inchon --> too-hasty diplomacy, Sept. 15-oct. 7.

G. Optimistic miscalculation­by everyone.

H. Security Dilemma: security was the basic goal pursued by both the US and China. Was it a case of misperceived insecurity by both sides?
 

--Did the US need to defend South Korea for its security?

--Did China need to defend North Korea for its security?
 

 I. War --> War
  1. US aims widened due to the war itself: "We must conquer the North to punish the aggressor!"

2. Chinese aims widen also: Mao inferred malign US intent from the interposition of the US fleet off Taiwan, and the US invasion of North Korea; he responded by expanding China’s aims, to include expelling the US from South Korea.

(Question: Was it a US blunder to put the fleet off Taiwan?)
 

 VI. Cold War and Korea­Big Lessons: A. Bipolarity was new and unresolved­real insecurities needed to be worked out?

B. A spiral of misperceptions caused the Cold War and Korea?

C. Democracy v. Totalitarian Communism: ideology and the nature of the states drove the Cold War (and Korea!)
 

 VII. Questions:

>Did MAD end the Cold War once the great powers internalized it?

>Did Capitalism triumph over Communism as the superior ideology?

> Is there any real danger of the world reverting back to a militarized/polarized/tense situation?