Feb. 3, 2000 // 17.423 // Cramer, Gabbitas, & Goldstone
THEORIES OF THE CAUSES OF WAR: "Levels of Analysis"
I. Defining Terms:
A. Laws, theories, hypotheses, independent variables, dependent variables
B. Arrow diagrams
II. Testing Social Science Theories:
A. Observation v. experimentation
B. Large-n v. Case study
III. The War Mystery is only Partly Solved
A. Existing literature is messy and incomplete
B. Data is difficult to handle and interpret
C. Is each situation unique? Is there "learning" by the actors so they can defy history?
IV. Levels of Analysis
A. Man, State and International System
B. In between levels: okay, it is not SO neat!!
V. The level of the Individual: Man (or woman?)
A. The nature of Man:
i. All people are genetically aggressive: war caused by human nature
ii. Men naturally have high levels of testosterone–put women in charge!!!!
B. The nurture of Man:
i. Survival of the fittest requires teaching aggression; but peaceful societies are possible.
ii. Boys are socialized or taught to be aggressive.
C. Psychological Explanations for War
i. Individuals are different: when does it matter?
ii. Personality types: dogmatic, authoritarian, domineering . . .
iii. Stress causes war?
iv. Cognitive errors v. motivational "errors": analogies and career advancement!!!
v. Groupthink
vi. Mistakes, bungles, boo-boos . . . could we do better?
VI. Governmental Decision Making
A. Organization theory
B. Bureaucratic Politics Model