Handout // March 16
The Origins of World War I: Part 3
Some Lessons . . .

I. Many, Many Lessons:

A. WWI has many lessons, how do we determine the most important ones? II. Misperceptions as Root Causes? A. "Militarism" (+ Nationalist mythmaking) è cult of the offensive è military-related causes of the war 1) "First move advantages" -- "need" of preemption (first mobilization advantages, etc.)

2) "Windows" of opportunity and vulnerability:

a.) German fear of Russian military reform.

b.) Balkan crisis viewed as a strategic window by Germany.

 3) "False optimism" of a quick war (cheap war? Or at least easy)

4) Cumulative resources (need to expand; can’t afford to lose Serbia)

5) Fait accompli tactics (ultimatum to Serbia, declaring war on Serbia, invading Belgium)

6) Tight alliances

7) Increased secrecy

8) Intense arms racing
 

 B. The Spiral Model? 1) Germany believed "big stick" ideas, tried to intimidate Britain with its fleet, tried to break the Entente with "crises," but the situation spiraled and Germany became "self-encircled."
  C. The Deterrence Model? 1) Britain failed to deter Germany­failed to perceive German intentions. If Britain had been more firm it could have deterred Germany?
  D. Non-evaluation: the flip-side of rampant "militarism" and "nationalist myths" is that nobody was auditing these ideas­critics were marginalized and even scorned. There was no tolerance of dissent. Scholars were silent. Peace movements were off the mark. Could it have been different?

E. Non-strategy: British indecision needs to be noted. Britain believed a non-strategy might help restrain Russia/France­but it definitely led to German false optimism­what should Britain have done?

 III. Using theories to explain cases, and using cases to test theories.