Handout // March 7
National Missile Defense: Current Politics Update

I. National Missile Defense: The Proposed System

A. First Phase (C1) with 100 interceptors : $33 billion for 20 years.­planned for 2005. System planned for 2010-2011 (C3), no cost estimate yet.

B. Will it work?

1. Yes, can hit a bullet with a bullet.

2. Many doubts we could ever overcome even cheap/easy countermeasures.

 II. Russia, China and Allies Protest. Why?
A. Russia and China promise to begin to build to overcome it.
B. Allies protest vehemently­why if it will target Rogue states?
III. Are Rogue States the Threat NMD addresses? A. Intelligence Agencies report: most likely threat from Rogue States is: trucks, ships, airplanes, and cruise missiles. 1. Less expensive.

2. Possibly covert.

3. More reliable.
 

 B. Is best strategy deterrence? Why would deterrence not work?
  1. It worked against Stalin and Mao.

2. It has been working against North Korea, protecting US troops in South Korea for many years.

3. Shouldn’t it work better against "blackmail" threats when Rogues do not have a second strike capability?
 

 C. Boost-phase defense is available­cheaper and more reliable­why not use it? IV. Threat of Accidental or Unauthorized Launch from Russia or China A. But most likely Russian launch is too big for this system. (This system handles ~ 24 warheads/ Russian packages of missiles are 60-1000 warheads.)

B. China is basically no threat now­few missiles, all de-alerted. Promises to alert and increase numbers if US builds NMD!!!!

C. Both Russia and China promise to build up in response to this system­wouldn’t cooperation to reduce the threat, as US is pursuing now­fix this problem much better?

 V. NMD struggle: Arms control and international cooperation v. U.S. dominance. A. Conservative movement does not trust arms control. Wants U.S. to preserve its "freedom of action." = U.S. dominance. The key to U.S. dominance is NMD.

B. Democrats and moderates prefer arms control, international cooperation, etc.­deploying NMD kills ABM Treaty which is cornerstone of arms control. Killing ABM Treaty begins arms races, at least to some degree­depends how far US goes and how far others go to counter US (whether they believe US defenses work, etc.).

C. Big problem: The NMD system the US has chosen to build is indistinguishable from a system that achieves dominance, even though US claims it does not want dominance. US has other options, is not being open and honest with others about that, and they know it, what should others believe?

 VI. Parallels with World War I: A. In 1890, the world was a nice peaceful place, with few people imagining war as possible. One power adopted an offensive strategy, and quickly became "self-encircled"…..arms races broke out….states adopted reckless foreign policies.

B. "Military technology should have made the European strategic balance in July 1914 a model of stability, but offensive military strategies defied those technological realities, trapping European statesmen in a war-causing spiral of insecurity and instability." (Jack Snyder)

 VII. How is the World Different Today? A. US could be dominant, no one could catch up for many decades. Maybe others can be convinced the US is benign­a nice world policeman­and we would all be safer? Think about the security dilemma, spirals and deterrence­what is possible? What is likely? Would Windows be a big problem? Is the US misperceiving itself?