Andrea Gabbitas, Guest Lecturer

A.  5^th Level: International System

1.  Multipolarity

• several powers, two revisionist powers, two theaters
• allows Japanese miscalculation over the likelihood that the U.S. will enter into war in the Pacific
• causes incentives for the attack on Pearl Harbor

2.  Security Dilemma

• Japanese vulnerability: leads to "defensive" expansion
• U.S. sees Japanese moves as aggressive
• Japan believes U.S. responses are aggressive
• Japan’s two front war problem

3.  Offense Dominance

• Japan sees the world as offense dominant
• belief that it is easy to expand/gain territory
• change in naval technology

4.  Windows — Alas! Windows, windows, everywhere

• potential increase in the strength of the Chinese
• U.S. buildup of naval forces
• War in Europe
• U.S. oil embargo

5.  First Move Advantage — surprise attack on Pearl Harbor

6.  Cumulativity of resources

7.  Economic Interdependence — a test of the theory
 

B.  4^th Level: Dyadic Interaction

1.  Spiral/Deterrence Model — deterrence attempts by both Japan and the U.S. end in greater hostility
 

C.  3^rd Level: State Level

1.  Militarism

• lack of civilian control since the late 1900s
• military unchecked and out of control

2.  Belligerent Nationalism — total mobilization
 

D.  2^nd Level: Small-Group Interactions

1.  Domestic Politics

a.  Japan

• seeing the necessary as possible, exaggeration of security fears
• logrolling: the use of two war plans

b.  The United States

• unwillingness to back down and show weakness
• lack of bureaucratic restraints on Acheson

2.  Non-evaluation, non-strategy

a.  Japan

• thought expansion wouldn’t provoke outside intervention
• attacks U.S. despite knowing that the U.S. was the stronger power
• civilian leaders aren’t informed about plans for Pearl Harbor
• conflicting Japanese war plans
• conflicting views about offense dominance
• beliefs about the superiority of Japan — heavy nationalism reduces criticism

b.  The United States

• non-evaluation of global strategic goals — who’s the threat??
• Sees the necessary as possible — defense of the Philippines

E.  1^st Level: Individuals

1.  Did Dean Acheson cause the war? Heinrichs/Utley Debate
 

F.  Other: Misperceptions/Beliefs

1.  Japan thinks the U.S. doesn’t care about the Far East

2.  Attribution Theory: Japan and the U.S. both see their own moves as defensive and the enemy’s reactions as aggressive

3.  Belief that war is inevitable

4.  Racism

5.  Deliberate misperceptions and continuing mythmaking: Denial of the Rape of Nanking and Japanese dislike of Ienaga
 

A.  No single cause of wars — This war is overdetermined.

B.  No simple lessons — many of these causes would have been tough fixes

1.  Identifying whether you’re in the spiral or deterrence model

2.  Militarism — how do you know when the military has too much power?? U.S. recent history; Pakistan today.

3.  Non-evaluation — How do you make states better evaluators?

C.  Common themes

1.  Windows

2.  Economic Vulnerability

3.  Crazy states: exaggerated insecurity and non-evaluation