Laura M. Robinson *
he world can never be at peace unless people have security in their daily lives. Future conflicts may often be within nations rather than between them—with their origins buried deep in growing socio-economic deprivation and disparities. The search for security in such a milieu lies in development, not in arms." This statement begins the 1994 Human Development Report, prepared by an independent team of economists for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and published by Oxford Press.
The Report highlights the Human Development Index (HDI), a yardstick in the Report that ranks 173 countries by combining life expectancy, educational level, and basic purchasing power (see Figure 1). The Human Development Index, although only 5 years old, has had a far reaching impact on national and international dialogue. One of the advantages of the index is that it provides a more sophisticated measure of development beyond per-capita gross national product.
The HDI has raised healthy political debate on comparative country rankings as well as on internal disparities. In 1993, the Report noted the widening gaps between whites and African-Americans and Hispanics in the US. It also drew attention to the disparities in Mexico between the people of Chiapas and those in more affluent parts of the country. This early warning report was published seven months before the predominantly Mayan field workers in Chiapas took up arms against the government in January 1994.
"In many ways, a desegregated Human Development Index holds a mirror up to society, forcing policy makers to take note of disturbing disparities between various regions, various ethnic groups, and various income classes. Timely action can forestall the gathering storm," says Mahbub ul Haq, Special Advisor to the Administrator of UNDP and chief architect of the annual Human Development Report.
As South Africa advances in a new post-apartheid era, it must cope with a wide black-white gap in human development. As one country, South Africa ranks 93 on the Human Development Index. Measured separately, white South Africans would rank 24th in the world, after Spain, while black South Africans would rank 123, just above Congo.
The major challenge for policy makers will be to promote social integration without instigating unrest between the disparate groups. For comparison, South Africa's black-white HDI gap is four times that between blacks and whites in the USA, where racial violence remains a serious threat.
Although the ethnic and racial disparities may not be as evident in developed countries, there is still a pattern of inequity inside national borders. Canada ranks number one on the global Human Development Index, but the Inuits of the northern territories and other indigenous people live an average of 5.6 years less than other Canadians. The Inuits also earn one-third less income.
The gaps within and among developing countries remain the focus in the Report. On average, a Brazilian from the northeast part of the country will die 17 years earlier, will lag 33 percentage points behind in literacy, and will earn 40 percent less than his or her southern counterpart. Brazil ranks 63rd in the world; southern Brazil would rank 42nd, but the northeast would rank 111—69 country-ranks lower.
Nigeria faces some of the worst regional disparities in the world. One of the states, Bendel, would rank above that of progressive Sri Lanka (HDI=90), while the state of Borno has an HDI far lower than the last ranking in the world, Guinea (HDI = 173). Average life expectancy in Borno is only 40 years, and adult literacy is at 12%, less than one-quarter of the national average. The Report warns that these disparities contain the potential for major social, economic, and political unrest, and the situation warrants the urgent attention of policy makers.
The new index shows that Malaysia (HDI=57) and Botswana (HDI=87) have made the most progress in human development since 1960. All countries, even the least developed ones, made substantial gains. The Report highlights the positive experience of Malaysia in overcoming disparities among racial groups after the 1969 racial riots. Malaysia implemented a successful strategy for social integration by increasing human development levels of all classes of society. Between 1970 and 1991, the HDI of the less advantaged ethnic Malays increased one and a half times as fast as that of the more advantaged ethnic Chinese.
Over the last three decades, there has been major progress in the human development status of the world's population. Top performers other than Malaysia and Botswana include, in descending order, the Republic of Korea, Tunisia, Thailand, Syria, Turkey, China, Portugal, and Iran. In 1960, about 73% of the world's population was ranked "low" in terms of human development. In 1990, that figure decreased to 35%. In 1960, about 11% of the global population was in the "medium" range. In 1990, that figure increased to 42%. "The world has seen unprecedented human progress during the last three decades," says Dr. Haq. "Unfortunately, it has been accompanied by large pockets of human deprivation."
James Gustave Speth, Administrator of UNDP, states that "sustainable human development not only generates economic growth, but distributes its benefits equitably. It regenerates the environment rather than destroying it and empowers people rather than marginalizing them, while giving priority to the poor. It is pro-jobs, pro-nature, and pro-women." The Human Development Index has shown how the poorest countries can afford to launch programs for human development. With technical assistance from UNDP, over 20 countries have initiated human development strategies and plans.
The Report states that while countries around the world are spending billions in arms for territorial security, "human" security is getting worse. In the US, which spends more than any other country on arms ($290 billion in 1991):
• Real earnings fell by 3% in the 1980s, and nearly 15% of people live below the poverty line.
• Real benefit spending per old age pensioner declined by 40% between 1987 and 1990.
• In 1992, 14 million reported crimes cost the US economy $425 billion. Two million workers were physically attacked, and 20 children a day die from gunshot wounds.
• Consumer spending on narcotics is estimated to exceed the combined incomes (GDPs) of more than 80 developing countries.
• The unemployment rate for African Americans is twice that for white Americans.
The Report says that widespread human insecurity is a universal problem. While the concern for human security is a global one, the wealthy nations are more concerned with drugs and crime, while the poorer ones are concerned with hunger and disease. The spending to protect borders is still greater than that to protect individuals within borders. Although the end of the Cold War brought a decline in global military spending of 3.6% a year between the peak spending years of 1987 and 1991, the resulting peace dividend of $935 billion has not been used to provide human security. Another $460 billion would be available as a peace dividend over the next five years if global military spending continued to decline by 3% a year.
To date, the record on spending allocations has not been encouraging. Several poor nations spend much more on arms than on education and health. The largest conventional arms buyer in the developing world is India. India's order of 20 MiG-29 fighter aircraft was done at a cost that could have educated 15 million girls. Nigeria bought 80 battle tanks from the UK at a cost that would have immunized 2 million children and provided family planning services to 17 million couples. The Republic of Korea ordered 28 missiles from the US for a cost that would have immunized all of its 120,000 unimmunized children and provided safe water to 3.5 million people. Whether the military spending brought increased security to the average citizens of these countries remains doubtful.
Unfortunately, the five permanent members of the Security Council of the United Nations export 86% of the conventional weapons to the developing countries. The former Soviet Union, the US, France, China, and the UK, all charged with global security policy, are exporting arms to countries that need these funds to advance human security. According to Dr. Haq, concerns for human security are more globalized than trade today.
The Report details warning signs in Afghanistan, Angola, Haiti, Iraq, Mozambique, Myanmar, Sudan, and Zaire. Early warning signs include deteriorating food consumption, high unemployment and declining wages, human rights violations, widening regional disparities, and an over-emphasis on military spending. An early warning system could forecast Somalia-like "national breakdowns." For example, in Myanmar, the Report cites as warning signs severe child malnutrition, "gross and persistent human rights abuses," and a sharply rising military budget that now accounts for 35% of total government spending.
The Report calls for preventative measures for human development. The UN operation in Somalia cost more than $2 billion in 1993. A similar socio-economic investment 10 years ago might have averted the current crisis. "Soldiers in blue berets are no substitute for socio-economic reform. Nor can short-term humanitarian assistance replace long-term development support." The Report urges that the Social Summit endorse the concept of human security "as the key challenge for the 21st century."
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* Laura M. Robinson is a Contributing Editor of ATF.