NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF STATE-PRICE DENSITIES IMPLICIT IN FINANCIAL ASSET PRICES

Journal of Finance 52(1998), 499-548.

Yacine Ait-Sahalia and Andrew W. Lo

Implicit in the prices of traded financial assets are Arrow-Debreu state prices or, in the continuous-state case, the state-price density [SPD]. We construct an estimator for the SPD implicit in option prices and derive an asymptotic sampling theory for this estimator to gauge its accuracy. The SPD estimator provides an arbitrage-free method of pricing new, more complex, or less liquid securities while capturing those features of the data that are most relevant from an asset-pricing perspective, e.g., negative skewness and excess kurtosis for asset returns, volatility ``smiles'' for option prices. We perform Monte Carlo simulation experiments to show that the SPD estimator can be successfully extracted from option prices and we present an empirical application using S&P 500 index options.

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