Application of Risk Assessment to non-Nuclear Systems
Risk-informed Decision Making. One critical objective of the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) is to provide effective systems for radiological screening at America’s shipping ports and border crossings which it currently does with simple plastic scintillators. In September of 2005, DNDO initiated a solicitation process for new detection systems that use passive gamma-ray spectroscopy to replace the outdated systems. In attempting to decide between different system designs and deployment options, DNDO has performed a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) that includes value judgments on the relative importance of the goals of the program such as minimizing cost, maximizing detection capability, and minimizing the impact on stream of commerce among others. The results of the CBA have been questioned because several critical inputs to the analysis are very difficult to quantify in terms of dollars and require broad assumptions.
The objective of this work is to propose the use of the analytic-deliberative process (ADP) as an alternative to CBA for selecting and deploying radiation portal monitors at shipping ports and border crossings. The two decision frameworks yielded similar final decision option preferences. The greatest strength of the ADP revealed by this research was the effectiveness of the deliberation following the completion of the analysis. Five major points of disagreement among the stakeholders were easily identified and discussed. Four of the disagreements were the results of misunderstandings between the stakeholders about facts regarding the case study. The deliberation allowed these misunderstandings to be identified quickly and remedied, which led to good agreement between stakeholders who disagreed initially.
