12.310 Forecast Submission

Forecasts are due by 7pm (0z)

Email Address: (You will be cc'ed)
Name:

Time Forecast Prepared (YYMMDD/HHz):
Forecast Period (YYMMDD/HHz): to (YYMMDD/HHz):

Data Collection

Boston Weather

Boston Observations (opens in a new window)

Category	Current Conditions	Past Tendencies / Trends
Temperature (F)		Max Min
Dew Point (F)
Pressure (mb)		Steady Rising Falling
Wind Direction	N E S W NW NE SW SE
Wind Speed (knots)		Steady Increasing Decreasing
Cloud Cover
Precipitation

US Weather

Surface (opens in a new window)
Satellite (opens in a new window)
Radar (opens in a new window)


Examine the US surface maps. Locate the highs and lows and relate them to the locations of fronts, clouds (satellite), and precipitation (radar):



Upper Air (opens in a new window)

US 500 mb Map:
Describe the direction and strength of the upper air flow (the "jet") over the US.


Synoptic Weather Discussion:
Write a brief statement that describes your interpretation of the present synoptic situation. Speculate if there are any significant systems approaching Boston.

Forecast Models

Graphical Output

Forecasts/US (opens in a new window)

Look at the graphical model outputs of the following models: GFS and ETA at the surface, 850mb, and 500mb.

Model Discussion:
Briefly describe any major differences between the models (in terms of precip, pressure, etc.). Also, explain where the models predict the highs and lows to move. Describe what you expect to happen in the Northeast?

Model Numerical Output

Weather Interface (choose "Model Data" #9 and #12 for gridded interpolation)

Model	Run Time	Total Precip
ETA
GFS

Model Statistical Guidance

MOS Forecasts (opens in a new window)

Model	Run Time	T max	T min	Precip Cat
ETAMOS
GFSMOS
NGMMOS

NWS Forecaster Guidance

Weather Service Forecast (opens in a new window)

Time	T	Precip Prob
Tonight (low)
Tomorrow (high)
Tomorrow night (low)

Your Forecast The variables you are supposed to forecast are the max, min temperatures and the precipitation category in a 24-hour period (06Z - 06Z) Max T (F): Min T (F): Precipitation categories (Note: If there is a trace of precipitation, 0 and 1 both verify.) 0: no precipitation or a trace 1: trace to 0.05" of liquid, inclusive 2: 0.06 to 0.24", inclusive 3: 0.25 to 0.49", inclusive 4: 0.50 to 0.99", inclusive 5: 1.00" or greater Scoring: 1 point for each degree of error on Tmax and Tmin. 4 points for each precipitation category error. Example: You put 34, 21, cat 3. It is actually 36, 20, cat 2. You get 7 points. Lowest cumulative score wins! An inaccurate, though well thought out, forecast will not hurt your grade in the class -- it will only hurt your standings in the competition. Not only will Professor Illari and the TAs submit forecasts, but forecasts from each of the guidance models will also be included. Your goal is to beat the models.

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