Broadcast TV - Dead Man Walking
For the 4th straight year, cable ad-supported TV is projected to outpace broadcast TV and the gap is expanding. The estimates from Turner based on Nielsen Research data is 55.3% for cable versus 41.5% share for broadcast (based on data up until 12/4/05).
I personally love this topic. There are so many ideas one can extrapolate from these facts. One of my favorites is the long-range viability of programming. Cable stations are more focused on a theme than the broadcast stations and hence have more of an identity. Programmers hence have a more narrow mandate on what to air and viewers have a better idea of what they will get. Is it really clear what differentiates NBC from CBS from ABC? And what is there sustainable advantage to viewers other than their current shows? If I create a great new cartoon, I likely want to go to the Cartoon Network. If I create a great new sitcom, is it really true that NBC is better than CBS or ABC? And will today's choice always be the best?
In my opinion, broadcast TV is a dead-man walking. They have way too much money to die but in 20 years, they will be unrecognizable from today.
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