MODULE 2 > Forming Teams

2.5aii Time Estimating

Are the goals appropriate for the time available is a question that has to be answered before all the tasks are broken down into weekly activities. The hardest part of the time management task is assigning the time estimate to the activity. When estimating time you might want to add time to the amount of time you think it will take the team to complete the goal. To keep the team on track reviewing the time management system your team has in place at your weekly team meeting is mandatory. . In the beginning you will probably find that there will be discrepancy between the number of hours the team expected to use in certain tasks and the actual number of hours the team spent. If the team finds that more time is spent in one area than calculated, and less in another, the weekly summary of time use clearly indicates which activities to reduce to find the extra time you want for that neglected area.

Tool - Estimating Activity Time (EAT)

You have some historical data to draw upon. You know how long it has taken each of you individually to prepare for some of the tasks. Establishing how much time it will take to collaborate and write a paper and support the oral presentation, run experiments in the laboratory, etc. estimates must rely upon assumptions. These assumptions include, the optimistic completion time, the pessimistic completion time, and the most likely completion time.

Optimistic Completion Times are predicated upon the assumption that all will go according to your action plans. According to Kerzner (1999) this occurs about 1% of the time.

Pessimistic Completion Times are predicated upon the assumption that everything will go wrong. This also occurs about 1% of the time.

Most Likely Completion Time using historical evidence, team members committed time schedules, and your strategic management skills to predict the time. This the time that you feel would most often occur.

Before combining these three times into a single value for expected time, two assumptions must be made. The first assumption is that the standard deviation is one sixth of the time requirement range. Predicated upon probability theory, we assume that the end points of a curve are three standard deviations from the mean. The second assumption requires that the probability distribution of time required for an activity be expressible as a beta distribution (Hiller & Lieberman, 1967). The expected time to do the task can be calculated as:

te = (a + 4m + b) / 6

t = expected time

a = optimistic time

b = pessimistic time

m = most likely

Example if

a = 3

b = 7

m = 5 weeks

t = 5 weeks

Adapted from Kerzner H., 1998. Project Management A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Control.