Massachusetts Institute of Technology    massachusetts institute of technology

Mission 2009


Evacuation Planning in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM)



Summary
Mission 2009 focuses on the prevention and response to tsunamis, specifically in the South Pacific country of the Federated States of Micronesia and in the South American country of Peru.  As a member of Team 7 (Evacuation Planning), I was assigned to research evacuation of the Federated States of Micronesia.  The sources below pertain to many aspects of evacuation and the geography of FSM.


References

Aeromedical evacuation.(2000). Air Power History, 47(2), 38.

        This article discusses the structure and capability of the large-scale medical evacuations that occurred during the Korean War.  Because this was the time period where air evacuation became a routine procedure instead of strictly emergency protocol, there is information concerning the type of aircraft used and evacuation potential.

Aregheore, E. M. (2002). Grassland and pasture crops: Country pasture/ forage resource profiles. Retrieved 9/18, 2005 from http://www.fao.org/WAICENT/FAOINFO/AGRICULT/AGP/AGPC/doc/Counprof/southpacific/micronesia.htm

        This website contains very specific topographical information on each of the four major islands: Kosrae, Yap, Chuuk, and Pohnpei.  It also describes typical climatic cycles throughout the year and the soil types of different regions of the islands, which could potentially affect the impact a tsunami would have on the land.

Atwater, B. F., Cisternas, M., Bourgeois, J., Dudley, W. C., Hendley II, James W., & Stauffer, P. H. (1999). Surviving a tsunami: Lessons from Chile, Hawaii, and Japan (Online Report No. 1187) U.S. Geological Survey. (Tsunamis) 9/20.

        Atwater et. al. have compiled a collection of true stories from around the Pacific Ocean regarding a tsunami that occurred off the coast of Chile in 1960 as the result of an earthquake generated by a fault rupture.  These stories highlight important lessons for people who live near tsunamis, and explain what to do and what not to do to survive specific situations.

Bureau of Public Affairs, U.S. Department of State. (2005). U.S. department of state. Retrieved 9/18, 2005 from http://www.state.gov/

        This website gives a very thorough general overview of Federated States of Micronesia.  Information includes geography, U.S. relations, government, economy and population facts and statistics.  This is a good place to get the big picture.

Central Intelligence Agency, U.S. (2005). The world factbook. Retrieved 09/17, 2005 from http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html

        This is another compilation of general information regarding Micronesia, but it contains much more specific information about transportation, population (composition), government, and economy.  The transportation section is especially useful for considering evacuation design.

Geological Survey (U.S.). (2000). In Coordinating Committee for Coastal and Offshore Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia (Ed.), Western Pacific Islands (East Asia geographic map series ed.). Reston, VA: Geological Survey.

        This map series contains a map specifically of the Federated States of Micronesia, with elevations represented by contour lines.  The series allows for easy comparison of FSM with its neighboring nations in size and elevation.

Hewitt, K. (1997). The 'geographicalness' of disaster. Regions of risk: A geographical introduction to disasters (pp. 40). Harlow, England: Addison Wesley Longman Limited.

        This chapter deals with generalized human reactions to geological disasters and explains in detail and with examples the psychology of geographic shock and people’s ties to their own land, thus pointing out necessary steps for moving large groups of people from home to elsewhere in the aftermath of the disaster.

Imamura, F., Sato, H. (., Nakabayashi, I. (., Shimazaki, K. (., & Tanabe, H. (. (2001). Extensive damage caused by tsunami; prediction and countermeasure; destructive earthquake; forecast and disaster prevention measures. Chigaku Zasshi = Journal of Geography, 110(6), 828-837.

        This article describes in part the computer simulation that has been developed in Japan for the prediction of tsunamis based on seismic information.  The program also takes into account historical accounts of other tsunamis to try and predict other factors that influence tsunami propagation and effect.

Johnson, C. E., & Koyanagi, R. Y. (1987). Earthquake hazards of Hawaii; evaluation, monitoring, and risk assessment; Geological Society of America, Cordilleran Section, 83rd Annual Meeting with the Paleontological Society of America, Pacific Coast Section. Abstracts with Programs - Geological Society of America, 19(6), 392.

        Johnson and Koyanagi consider the contributions of geography, specifically volcanoes, and the historical record in generating an overall assessment of earthquake risk in Hawaii.  They also take into account the generation of tsunamis from local earthquakes as sources.

Kobbeltvedt, T., Brun, W., & Laberg, J. C. (2005). Cognitive processes in planning and judgements under sleep deprivation and time pressure. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 98(1), 1.

        This article examined through experimentation the effect of several factors like sleep deprivation, quality of plans, confidence level, and time on the planning of cadet rescue operations.  By considering human limitations, it is possible to more accurately predict the actual carrying out of the evacuation plan and foresee possible issues.

McGuire, B. (2005). Tackling the tectonic threat. Surviving Armageddon (pp. 104). New York: Oxford University Press.

        McGuire gives an easily understandable explanation of the connection between plate tectonics and tsunami generating earthquakes, providing specific examples of active faults and natural disasters that have resulted along those faults.

Mould, G. I. (2001). Assessing systems for offshore emergency evacuation. The Journal of the Operational Research Society, 52(4), 401.

        Mould discusses different methods of evacuating ships at sea during “adverse weather conditions” or other emergency situations that might arise from instability in boat structure.  Among the methods examined are helicopter (not weather sensitive) and lifeboat (more immediate).  These are probably not practical for evacuation of a large number of ships in the way of tsunami, but it does give interesting data on reaction time, successful completion, and the effect of high waves on evacuation.

Murphy, R. R. (2004). Rescue robotics for homeland security. Association for Computing Machinery.Communications of the ACM, 47(3), 66.

        This article examines the use of robots during the September 11, 2001 attack on the World Trade Center.  These robots were used to examine structural integrity and to search for victims, and while the robots did not operate as independently as desired, robots with rescue capability are an expanding field of research that could have a potential application in evacuation and rescue pre-, during, and post tsunami.

Murty, T. S. (1977). Global tsunamis. In J. C. Stevenson (Ed.), Seismic sea waves: Tsunamis (pp. 215). Ottawa, Canada: D. W. Friesen & Sons Ltd.

        Murty has generated a thorough tsunami history worldwide with earthquake epicenters diagramed on maps of the various countries subject to earthquakes and tsunamis.  It gives brief descriptions and statistics of each tsunami.  Micronesia is not mentioned, but Peru is included in the South and North American chapter section.

Nichols, C. R., Porter, D. L., & Williams, R. G. (2003). Oceanography today. Recent advances and issues in oceanography (pp. 1-137). Westport, Connecticut: Greenwood Press.

        This chapter discusses tsunamis and earthquakes from the perspective of what occurs on the seafloor.  It gives a solid scientific overview of the causes of tsunamis and describes briefly warning systems in place.

Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. (2005). The national tsunami hazard mitigation program. Retrieved 9/18, 2005 from http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tsunami-hazard/

        This page contains plans for reducing the damage done by tsunamis by improving evacuation and prediction.  It contains links to the Tsunami Research Program, which has current information about tsunami and earthquake prediction models.

Parfit, M. (2003). Islands of the pacific. National Geographic, 203(3), 107.

        This article, like many National Geographic articles, gives a snapshot of the ecosystems and biology present on Pacific Islands, including Micronesia.  This information could be useful, not for evacuation, but for environment recovery.

Rasid, H., Haider, W., & Hunt, L. (2000). Post-flood assessment of emergency evacuation policies in the red river basin, southern manitoba. Canadian Geographer, 44(4), 369.

        Rasid, Haider, and Hunt examine public preferences about evacuation in the Red River Basin area after the 1997 flood, where a mandatory evacuation was ordered.  They also examine motivation for leaving or staying and the nature of “risk-taking behavior”, such as staying at home to protect property.  This concerns the social side of emergency evacuation.

Sakakibara, H., Kajitani, Y., & Okada, N. (2004). Road network robustness for avoiding functional isolation in disasters. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 130(5), 560.

        Sakakibara, Kajitani, and Okada have generated a Topological Index (TI) to describe and assign a number to the concentration and density of road networks in a wide region with different populations.  This index holds applications for the use of road networks in evacuations and emergencies, when certain blocks of roads might become isolated or broken up.

Smith, D. (2005). Tsunami; a research perspective. Geology Today, 21(2), 64-68.

        This article gives a general overview about current tsunami research including the tsunami intensity scale generated by Papadopoulos and Imamura and it also defines basic terminology used when describing tsunamis, like basic quantitative terms used to indicate size.


Website created and maintained by Dawn Song
contact: tsunami7@mit.edu

Last updated: September 23, 2005