DUSP Courses 1998

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11.482J Regional Socioeconomic Impact Analyses and Modeling

MIT 11.482 J/1.285J

Fall 1999

Karen R. Polenske

Jinevra R. Howard

REGIONAL SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS AND MODELING

Department of Urban Studies and Planning

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Room: 9-536

Time: 4:00-6:30 p.m.*

First class: Tuesday, September 14, 1999

Credit units: 3-0-9

Prerequisites: MIT 11.481 or Permission of Instructor

*Note that for some weeks, an extra hour of the class will be held to work on the computer modeling issues. Exact time and location will be determined the week previous.

SEMINAR DESCRIPTION

The seminar is designed to provide advanced graduate students with a thorough understanding of selected regional economic theories and techniques and with experience in using alternative socioeconomic impact assessment models and related regional techniques on microcomputers. Discussions will be held on particular theoretical modeling and economic issues; linkages among theories, accounts, and policies; relationships between national and regional economic structures; and methods of adjusting and estimating regional input-output accounts and tables. Examples from the Boston area and other U.S. cities/regions will be used to illustrate points throughout the seminar. New material on analyzing regional development issues will be covered.

Two state-of-the-art regional microcomputer packages will be provided for students to test and evaluate. These include PC I-O, by Benjamin Stevens; and Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI), by George Treyz. These are packages being extensively used by regional analysts in this region and elsewhere in the United States.

Three problem sets will be assigned. During the first five weeks of the seminar, appropriate data will be provided to analyze and evaluate the Massachusetts regional economy and to test the computer software packages. During the last part of the semester, students will extend their initial analysis to assess socioeconomic impacts of development policies proposed by the Boston Redevelopment Authority (BRA). Students will give a formal presentation to the BRA research staff at the end of the semester.

SEMINAR SCHEDULE

September 14 Introduction

September 21 Overview of Selected Theoretical, Regional Modeling, and Policy Issues

September 28 Modeling Regional Economies

October 5 Alternative Regional Input-Output Models and Multipliers, Part I

Guest Speaker: Glen Weisbrod, President, Economic Development Research Group, Boston, Massachusetts.

October 12 Alternative Types of Regional Input-Output Models and

Multipliers, Part II [class will be rescheduled for later in week]

October 19 Modeling Assumptions

October 26 Regional Econometric Modeling, Part I

November 2 Regional Econometric Modeling, Part II

Guest Speaker: Greg Perkins, Research Manager, Boston Redevelopment Authority

November 9 Model Comparisons

November 16 Massachusetts Economy, Case Study

November 23 Formulating and Applying Dynamic Economic Models

November 30 Use of Regional Models in Policy Analyses

December 7 Review of Regional Modeling Issues

December 14 Organization and Preparation of Seminar for Client

TBA Seminar for Client: Socioeconomic Impact Evaluation

OFFICE HOURS

Karen R. Polenske Room 9-535 Ext. 3-6881 W 10:00-12:00am krp@

Jinevra R. Howard Room 9-542 Ext. 3-1878 TBA jrhoward@

In cases where needed, appointments can be arranged at times other than the scheduled hours.

September 14. INTRODUCTION

September 21. OVERVIEW OF SELECTED THEORETICAL, REGIONAL MODELING AND POLICY ISSUES

A.S. Bailly, W.J. Coffey, L.J. Gibson. 1996. "Regional Science: Back to the Future." The Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 30, No. 2, pp. 153-163.

Edwin S. Mills. 1993. "What Makes Metropolitan Areas Grow?" In Urban Change in the United States and Western Europe, edited by Anita Summers, Paul C. Cheshire, and Lanfranco Senn. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press, pp. 193-216.

September 28. MODELING REGIONAL ECONOMIES

*Ronald E. Miller. 1998. "Regional and Interregional Input-Output Analysis." In Methods of Interregional and Regional Analysis, by Walter Isard, Iwan J. Azis, Matthew P. Drennan, Ronald E. Miller, Sidney Salzman, and Erik Thorbecke. Aldershot, England: Ashgate, pp. 41-124.

M. Tavakoli, S. Roper, and A. Schofield. 1988. "Some Issues in the Modelling of Small Regions." In Recent Advances in Regional Economic Modeling, edited by F. Harrigan and P.G. McGregor. London: Pion Publications, pp. 83-99.

October 5. ALTERNATIVE REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS AND MULTIPLIERS, PART I

Guest Speaker: Glen Weisbrod, President, Economic Development Research Group, Boston, Massachusetts.

Karen R. Polenske. 1995. "Leontief's Spatial Economic Analyses." Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Vol. 6, No, 3, pp. 309-318.

* Ronald E. Miller and Peter D. Blair. 1985. "Input-Output Models at the Regional Level." In Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, Inc., pp. 45-99 (Appendices are optional).

* Ronald E. Miller and Peter D. Blair. 1985. "Multipliers in the Input-Output Model." In Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, Inc., pp. 100-148 (Appendices are optional).

Karen R. Polenske and Petros Sivitanides. 1990. "Linkages in the Construction Sector." The Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 24., No. 2, pp. 147-161.

Regional Science Research Institute. 1993. PC I-O User's Manual. Highstown, NJ.

October 12. ALTERNATIVE REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS AND MULTIPLIERS, PART II

Benjamin Stevens and Michael Lahr. 1988. "Regional Economic Multipliers: Definition, Measurement and Application." In Economic Development Quarterly, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 88-96.

* George I. Treyz. 1993. Regional Economic Modeling: A Systematic Approach to Economic Forecasting and Policy Analysis. Chapter 2. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 7-71.

Karen R. Polenske. 1997. "Current Uses of the RAS Technique: A Critical Review." In Price, Growth, and Cycles, edited by Andras Simonovits and Albert Steenge. London: The Macmillan Press Ltd., pp. 58-88.

Benjamin H. Stevens, George I. Treyz, and Michael L. Lahr. 1989. "On the Comparative Accuracy of RPC Estimating Techniques." In Frontiers of Input-Output Analysis, edited by Ronald E. Miller, Karen R. Polenske, and Adam Z. Rose. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 245-257.

R.C. Jensen and G.R. West. 1980. "The Effect of Relative Coefficient Size on Input-Output Multipliers." Environment and Planning A. Vol. 12, No. 8 (August), pp. 927-936.

October 19. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS

* Paul Krugman. 1991. "Center and Periphery." Geography and Trade. Belgium: Leuven University Press, pp. 1-34.

*Paul Krugman. 1995. "Geography Lost and Found" and "Appendix." Development, Geography, and Economic Theory. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, pp. 31-65, and 89-08. (Appendix is optional.)

Ake Anderson and David F. Batten. 1988. "Creative Nodes, Logistical Networks, and the Future of the Metropolis." Transportation. Vol. 14, pp. 281-293.

Michael E. Porter. 1998. "Clusters and Competition: New Agendas for Companies, Governments, and Institutions." Working Paper 98-080. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School (March 25).

October 26. REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC MODELING, PART I

* George I. Treyz. 1993. Regional Economic Modeling: A Systematic Approach to Economic Forecasting and Policy Analysis. Chapter 2. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 7-71.

Rena Sivitanidou and Karen R. Polenske. 1989. "Assessing Regional Economic Impacts with Microcomputers." In A Planner's Review of PC Software and Technology, edited by Richard E. Klosterman. Chicago, IL: American Planning Association, pp. 83-90.

Glen Weisbrod and Burton Weisbrod. 1997, "Measuring Economic Impacts of Projects and Programs." Economic Development Research Group, 10 High Street, Suite 620, Boston, MA 02110.

November 2. REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC MODELING, PART II

Guest Speaker: Greg Perkins, Research Manager, Boston Redevelopment Authority

* George I. Treyz. 1993. Regional Economic Modeling: A Systematic Approach to Economic Forecasting and Policy Analysis. Chapters 6, 7, and 8. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 263-288; 291-327; 331-401.

Alvaro E. Pereira. 1998. "Economic Development of the Boston Harbor: Informing the Process." The Boston Conference Harbor Town Meeting (May 11).

Michael E. Porter. 1996. "Competitive Advantage, Agglomeration Economies, and Regional Policy." International Regional Science Review, Vol. 19, Nos 1-2, pp. 85-94 (including comments by Ann Markusen and Porter's response)

November 9. MODEL COMPARISONS

D.S. Rickman and R.K. Schwer. 1995. "A Comparison of the Multipliers of IMPLAN, REMI, and RIMS II: Benchmarking Ready-Made Models for Comparison." The Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 29, No. 4, pp. 363-374.

Philip J. Bourque. 1990. "Regional Multipliers: WAIO vs. RIMS." International Regional Science Review. Vol. 13, Nos. 1, 2, pp. 87-98.

Randall W. Jackson and Jonathan C. Comer. 1993. "An Alternative to Aggregated Base Tables in Input-Output Table Regionalization." Growth and Change. Vol. 24 (Spring).

November 16. MASSACHUSETTS ECONOMY: Case Study

Bennett Harrison and Jean Kluver. 1989. "Deindustrialization and Regional Restructuring in Massachusetts." In Deindustrialization and Regional Economic Transformation: The Experience of the United States, edited by Lloyd Rodwin and Hidehiko Sasanami. Boston, MA: Unwin Hyman, pp. 104-131.

Porter, Michael E., Rebecca E. Wayland, and C. Jeffrey Grogan. 1992. "Toward A

Shared Economic Vision for Massachusetts" (November 5) [in collaboration with Challenge to Leadership].

Readings related to the client's interests will be made available during the semester.

November 23. FORMULATING AND APPLYING DYNAMIC ECONOMIC MODELS

Alvaro E. Pereira and Karen R. Polenske. 1996. "Transportation Policy Implications of the 1990 Clean Air Act." In New Urban Strategies in Advanced Regional Economies, edited by R.D. Norton. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, Inc., pp. 111-138.

Glen E. Weisbrod and James Beckwith. 1992. "Measuring Economic Development Benefits for Highway Decision-making: The Wisconsin Case." Transportation Quarterly, Vol. 46, No. 1, pp. 57-79.

Cynthia Horan and Andrew E.G. Jonas. 1998. "Governing Massachusetts: Uneven Development and Politics in Metropolitan Boston." Economic Geography (Extra Issue), pp. 83-95.

Readings related to the client's interests will be made available during the semester

November 30. USE OF REGIONAL MODELS IN POLICY ANALYSES

Rolf H. Funck. 1990. "Reflections on Regional Development Policy and the Concept of Region." In New Frontiers in Regional Science: Essays in Honor of Walter Isard, Vol. 1, edited by Manas Chatterji and Robert E. Kuenne. Washington Square, NY: New York University Press.

Walter Isard and Christine Smith. 1990. "Policy Analysis Using an Integrated Multiregional Model." In Practical Methods of Regional Science and Empirical Applications: Selected Papers of Walter Isard, Vol. 2. Washington Square, NY: New York University Press.

* George I. Treyz. 1993. Regional Economic Modeling: A Systematic Approach to Economic Forecasting and Policy Analysis. Chapters 10, 11. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 431-450; 453-456.

December 7. REVIEW OF REGIONAL ANALYSIS AND MODELING ISSUES

Bennett Harrison, Amy Glasmeier, and Karen R. Polenske, 1995. "National, Regional, and Local Economic Development: New Thinking About Old Ideas." Economic Development Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, December 5.

December 14. Organization and Preparation of Presentation for Seminar to Client

TBA Seminar for research staff: Socioeconomic Impact Evaluation.

* Book is on reserve and can be purchased from the MIT Coop.

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This syllabus may have been updated. To ensure that you're looking at the most recent version, please hit "Reload."
11.482J Regional Socioeconomic Impact Analyses and Modeling
MIT 11.482 J/1.285J Fall 1999 Karen R. Polenske Jinevra R. Howard REGIONAL SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS AND MODELING Department of Urban Studies and Planning Massachusetts Institute of Technology Room: 9-536 Time: 4:00-6:30 p.m.* First class: Tuesday, September 14, 1999 Credit units: 3-0-9 Prerequisites: MIT 11.481 or Permission of Instructor Note that for some weeks, an extra hour of the class will be held to work on the computer modeling issues. Exact time and location will be determined the week previous. SEMINAR DESCRIPTION* The seminar is designed to provide advanced graduate students with a thorough understanding of selected regional economic theories and techniques and with experience in using alternative socioeconomic impact assessment models and related regional techniques on microcomputers. Discussions will be held on particular theoretical modeling and economic issues; linkages among theories, accounts, and policies; relationships between national and regional economic structures; and methods of adjusting and estimating regional input-output accounts and tables. Examples from the Boston area and other U.S. cities/regions will be used to illustrate points throughout the seminar. New material on analyzing regional development issues will be covered. Two state-of-the-art regional microcomputer packages will be provided for students to test and evaluate. These include PC I-O, by Benjamin Stevens; and Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI), by George Treyz. These are packages being extensively used by regional analysts in this region and elsewhere in the United States. Three problem sets will be assigned. During the first five weeks of the seminar, appropriate data will be provided to analyze and evaluate the Massachusetts regional economy and to test the computer software packages. During the last part of the semester, students will extend their initial analysis to assess socioeconomic impacts of development policies proposed by the Boston Redevelopment Authority (BRA). Students will give a formal presentation to the BRA research staff at the end of the semester. SEMINAR SCHEDULE September 14 Introduction September 21 Overview of Selected Theoretical, Regional Modeling, and Policy Issues September 28 Modeling Regional Economies October 5 Alternative Regional Input-Output Models and Multipliers, Part I Guest Speaker: Glen Weisbrod, President, Economic Development Research Group, Boston, Massachusetts. October 12 Alternative Types of Regional Input-Output Models and Multipliers, Part II [class will be rescheduled for later in week] October 19 Modeling Assumptions October 26 Regional Econometric Modeling, Part I November 2 Regional Econometric Modeling, Part II Guest Speaker: Greg Perkins, Research Manager, Boston Redevelopment Authority November 9 Model Comparisons November 16 Massachusetts Economy, Case Study November 23 Formulating and Applying Dynamic Economic Models November 30 Use of Regional Models in Policy Analyses December 7 Review of Regional Modeling Issues December 14 Organization and Preparation of Seminar for Client TBA Seminar for Client: Socioeconomic Impact Evaluation OFFICE HOURS Karen R. Polenske Room 9-535 Ext. 3-6881 W 10:00-12:00am krp@ Jinevra R. Howard Room 9-542 Ext. 3-1878 TBA jrhoward@ In cases where needed, appointments can be arranged at times other than the scheduled hours. September 14. INTRODUCTION September 21. OVERVIEW OF SELECTED THEORETICAL, REGIONAL MODELING AND POLICY ISSUES A.S. Bailly, W.J. Coffey, L.J. Gibson. 1996. "Regional Science: Back to the Future." The Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 30, No. 2, pp. 153-163. Edwin S. Mills. 1993. "What Makes Metropolitan Areas Grow?" In Urban Change in the United States and Western Europe, edited by Anita Summers, Paul C. Cheshire, and Lanfranco Senn. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press, pp. 193-216. September 28. MODELING REGIONAL ECONOMIES Ronald E. Miller. 1998. "Regional and Interregional Input-Output Analysis." In Methods of Interregional and Regional Analysis, by Walter Isard, Iwan J. Azis, Matthew P. Drennan, Ronald E. Miller, Sidney Salzman, and Erik Thorbecke. Aldershot, England: Ashgate, pp. 41-124. M. Tavakoli, S. Roper, and A. Schofield. 1988. "Some Issues in the Modelling of Small Regions." In Recent Advances in Regional Economic Modeling, edited by F. Harrigan and P.G. McGregor. London: Pion Publications, pp. 83-99. October 5. ALTERNATIVE REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS AND MULTIPLIERS, PART I Guest Speaker: Glen Weisbrod, President, Economic Development Research Group, Boston, Massachusetts. Karen R. Polenske. 1995. "Leontief's Spatial Economic Analyses." Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Vol. 6, No, 3, pp. 309-318. Ronald E. Miller and Peter D. Blair. 1985. "Input-Output Models at the Regional Level." In Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, Inc., pp. 45-99 (Appendices are optional). * Ronald E. Miller and Peter D. Blair. 1985. "Multipliers in the Input-Output Model." In Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, Inc., pp. 100-148 (Appendices are optional). Karen R. Polenske and Petros Sivitanides. 1990. "Linkages in the Construction Sector." The Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 24., No. 2, pp. 147-161. Regional Science Research Institute. 1993. PC I-O User's Manual. Highstown, NJ. October 12. ALTERNATIVE REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS AND MULTIPLIERS, PART II Benjamin Stevens and Michael Lahr. 1988. "Regional Economic Multipliers: Definition, Measurement and Application." In Economic Development Quarterly, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 88-96. * George I. Treyz. 1993. Regional Economic Modeling: A Systematic Approach to Economic Forecasting and Policy Analysis. Chapter 2. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 7-71. Karen R. Polenske. 1997. "Current Uses of the RAS Technique: A Critical Review." In Price, Growth, and Cycles, edited by Andras Simonovits and Albert Steenge. London: The Macmillan Press Ltd., pp. 58-88. Benjamin H. Stevens, George I. Treyz, and Michael L. Lahr. 1989. "On the Comparative Accuracy of RPC Estimating Techniques." In Frontiers of Input-Output Analysis, edited by Ronald E. Miller, Karen R. Polenske, and Adam Z. Rose. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 245-257. R.C. Jensen and G.R. West. 1980. "The Effect of Relative Coefficient Size on Input-Output Multipliers." Environment and Planning A. Vol. 12, No. 8 (August), pp. 927-936. October 19. MODELING ASSUMPTIONS * Paul Krugman. 1991. "Center and Periphery." Geography and Trade. Belgium: Leuven University Press, pp. 1-34. Paul Krugman. 1995. "Geography Lost and Found" and "Appendix." Development, Geography, and Economic Theory. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, pp. 31-65, and 89-08. (Appendix is optional.) Ake Anderson and David F. Batten. 1988. "Creative Nodes, Logistical Networks, and the Future of the Metropolis." Transportation. Vol. 14, pp. 281-293. Michael E. Porter. 1998. "Clusters and Competition: New Agendas for Companies, Governments, and Institutions." Working Paper 98-080. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School (March 25). October 26. REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC MODELING, PART I George I. Treyz. 1993. Regional Economic Modeling: A Systematic Approach to Economic Forecasting and Policy Analysis. Chapter 2. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 7-71. Rena Sivitanidou and Karen R. Polenske. 1989. "Assessing Regional Economic Impacts with Microcomputers." In A Planner's Review of PC Software and Technology, edited by Richard E. Klosterman. Chicago, IL: American Planning Association, pp. 83-90. Glen Weisbrod and Burton Weisbrod. 1997, "Measuring Economic Impacts of Projects and Programs." Economic Development Research Group, 10 High Street, Suite 620, Boston, MA 02110. November 2. REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC MODELING, PART II Guest Speaker: Greg Perkins, Research Manager, Boston Redevelopment Authority * George I. Treyz. 1993. Regional Economic Modeling: A Systematic Approach to Economic Forecasting and Policy Analysis. Chapters 6, 7, and 8. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 263-288; 291-327; 331-401. Alvaro E. Pereira. 1998. "Economic Development of the Boston Harbor: Informing the Process." The Boston Conference Harbor Town Meeting (May 11). Michael E. Porter. 1996. "Competitive Advantage, Agglomeration Economies, and Regional Policy." International Regional Science Review, Vol. 19, Nos 1-2, pp. 85-94 (including comments by Ann Markusen and Porter's response) November 9. MODEL COMPARISONS D.S. Rickman and R.K. Schwer. 1995. "A Comparison of the Multipliers of IMPLAN, REMI, and RIMS II: Benchmarking Ready-Made Models for Comparison." The Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 29, No. 4, pp. 363-374. Philip J. Bourque. 1990. "Regional Multipliers: WAIO vs. RIMS." International Regional Science Review. Vol. 13, Nos. 1, 2, pp. 87-98. Randall W. Jackson and Jonathan C. Comer. 1993. "An Alternative to Aggregated Base Tables in Input-Output Table Regionalization." Growth and Change. Vol. 24 (Spring). November 16. MASSACHUSETTS ECONOMY: Case Study Bennett Harrison and Jean Kluver. 1989. "Deindustrialization and Regional Restructuring in Massachusetts." In Deindustrialization and Regional Economic Transformation: The Experience of the United States, edited by Lloyd Rodwin and Hidehiko Sasanami. Boston, MA: Unwin Hyman, pp. 104-131. Porter, Michael E., Rebecca E. Wayland, and C. Jeffrey Grogan. 1992. "Toward A Shared Economic Vision for Massachusetts" (November 5) [in collaboration with Challenge to Leadership]. Readings related to the client's interests will be made available during the semester. November 23. FORMULATING AND APPLYING DYNAMIC ECONOMIC MODELS Alvaro E. Pereira and Karen R. Polenske. 1996. "Transportation Policy Implications of the 1990 Clean Air Act." In New Urban Strategies in Advanced Regional Economies, edited by R.D. Norton. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, Inc., pp. 111-138. Glen E. Weisbrod and James Beckwith. 1992. "Measuring Economic Development Benefits for Highway Decision-making: The Wisconsin Case." Transportation Quarterly, Vol. 46, No. 1, pp. 57-79. Cynthia Horan and Andrew E.G. Jonas. 1998. "Governing Massachusetts: Uneven Development and Politics in Metropolitan Boston." Economic Geography (Extra Issue), pp. 83-95. Readings related to the client's interests will be made available during the semester November 30. USE OF REGIONAL MODELS IN POLICY ANALYSES Rolf H. Funck. 1990. "Reflections on Regional Development Policy and the Concept of Region." In New Frontiers in Regional Science: Essays in Honor of Walter Isard, Vol. 1, edited by Manas Chatterji and Robert E. Kuenne. Washington Square, NY: New York University Press. Walter Isard and Christine Smith. 1990. "Policy Analysis Using an Integrated Multiregional Model." In Practical Methods of Regional Science and Empirical Applications: Selected Papers of Walter Isard, Vol. 2. Washington Square, NY: New York University Press. * George I. Treyz. 1993. Regional Economic Modeling: A Systematic Approach to Economic Forecasting and Policy Analysis. Chapters 10, 11. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 431-450; 453-456. December 7. REVIEW OF REGIONAL ANALYSIS AND MODELING ISSUES Bennett Harrison, Amy Glasmeier, and Karen R. Polenske, 1995. "National, Regional, and Local Economic Development: New Thinking About Old Ideas." Economic Development Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, December 5. December 14. Organization and Preparation of Presentation for Seminar to Client TBA Seminar for research staff: Socioeconomic Impact Evaluation. * Book is on reserve and can be purchased from the MIT Coop.