Research

Climate Change

My research focuses on using General Circulation Models (GCMs) to investigate the future climate change based on uncertainty in climate parameters (climate sensitivity, net aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate) and emissions scenarios. For this work, I use the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework (IGSM) coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3).

Conducting probabilistic climate projections with a particular GCM requires the ability to vary its climate parameters, such as its climate sensitivity. Several studies have been carried out recently to change the climate sensitivity of different AOGCMs using a perturbed physics approach. However, the ranges of climate sensitivities generated in most of these studies do not cover the ranges obtained based on the climate changes observed over 20th century, and the values tend to cluster around the climate sensitivity of the unperturbed version of the given model. I have been involved in modidying the climate sensitivity of CAM3 using a cloud radiative adjustment method in which the cloud feedback is artificially changed by modifying the cloud cover used in the radiation calculations. This approach has some advantages compared to the perturbed physics approach. In particular, the cloud radiative adjustment approach allows varying the model sensitivity of the model over a very wide range, covering the range of climate sensitivity obtained based on the climate changes observed over the 20th century.

For more information:

Monier, E., A.P. Sokolov, J. Scott, C.A. Schlosser and C.E. Forest. "Studying regional climate change based on uncertainty in climate parameters using CAM3". Oral presentation. AMS 23rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change, Seattle, Washington, January 23-27 2011.
Sokolov, A.P. and E. Monier, 2011: Changing the Climate Sensitivity of an Atmospheric General Circulation Model through Cloud Radiative Adjustment, Journal of Climate, submitted.
Reilly, J., S. Paltsev, K. Strzepek, N.E. Selin, Y. Cai, K.M. Nam, E. Monier, S. Dutkiewicz, J. Scott, M. Webster and A. Sokolov, 2011: Valuing Climate Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models: The MIT IGSM, Climatic Change, submitted.

Tropical Variability

My research in this area involves gaining insight in the mechanisms behing modes of intraseasonal and interannual variability in the Tropics (such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Nino/Southern Oscillation) using various modeling tools. In particular, I am focusing on understanding the role of wind-convection coupling and moisture processes in controling the speed of propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). For that I use the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model (known as MM5). Also, I am investigating the role of the atmospheric component of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Atmospheric General Circulation Model CAM3 coupled to a Mixed Layer Ocean, and the impact of the increasing radiative forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

For more information:

Monier, E., B.C. Weare and W.I. Gustafson, Jr, 2010: The Madden-Julian Oscillation Wind-Convection Coupling and the Role of Moisture Processes in the MM5 Model. Climate Dynamics 35(2-3):435-447, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0626-4.
Monier, E. and A.P. Sokolov. "Experiments on the Southern Oscillation with CAM3 coupled to a Mixed Layer Ocean". Oral presentation. 2010 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, California, December 13-17 2010.

Stratospheric Dynamics

My research on the stratosphere includes analyzing the long-term changes in the wave forcing of the stratospheric zonal-mean flow based on the calculation of the momentum budget using the Transformed Eulerian-Mean (TEM) framework and the ECMWF ERA-40 re-analysis. I am also investigating the role of dynamical transport processes in the decrease in stratospheric ozone over Earth's polar regions. The findings outline the considerable contribution of ozone eddy transport to the Antarctica ozone hole recovery and, in particular, large trends in the ozone mixing balancing equally large trends in the chemical destruction of ozone in October and November. My work has also been addressing the impact of ENSO on the stratospheric dynamics.

For more information:

Monier, E. and B.C. Weare, 2011: Climatology and trends in the forcing of the stratospheric zonal-mean flow, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11, 12751-12771, doi:10.5194/acp-11-12751-2011.
Monier, E. and B.C. Weare, 2011: Climatology and trends in the forcing of the stratospheric ozone transport, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11, 6311-6323, doi:10.5194/acp-11-6311-2011.