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The Year 2000 Team
"Recently a lot of people who once scorned predictions have taken to wondering anxiously about our immediate future. . . . Like children leaning forward to watch the odometer roll up zeros, we brace ourselves for the big change and possible doomsday."[ from "You Can't Keep a Good Prophet Down" in the April '99 issue of Smithsonian Magazine.]
"Even the briefest tour of the [Y2K] subject on the World Wide Web leaves the scroller dizzied by the expected hailstorm of catastrophes, fiends, demons and avenging angels disguised as flying saucers, all coming to a world near you." observed Smithsonian Magazine author Barbara Holland in a recent article.
The prophets of doom have been very active! There is even a "doomsday calculator" <http://www.y2knewswire.com/Y2Kengine.htm> on the Web. So, perhaps it’s no wonder a common question about Y2K is, "What do you really think will happen?" Here are some points to consider.
The first point is ". . .the human future, as opposed to some aspects of the natural future, is ‘fact-free’. . . in the area of so new, powerful, pervasive, and . . . . mysterious a world as that of computers, the potential impact of these problems is simply not calculable. Thus, despite its purely secular, technical properties, the issue shares with some religious phenomena the dynamics of a particular kind of religious time – the apocalyptic belief that soon some dramatic event will occur that will radically change our lives, for better or worse," says Richard Landes of the Center for Millennial Studies, <http://www.mille.org/>.
An impressive Y2K concern about technology is: how might a minor failure, within the vast interdependencies that have evolved from technology, affect other connected enterprises? Direct deposits tie employers to financial institutions. Just-in-time deliveries tie manufacturing processes to freight carriers and remote suppliers. The full impact of a minor failure is unknown. Doomsday prophets capitalize on these unknowns, though the issues have been recognized, and hundreds of millions of dollars and countless staff hours have been invested to mitigate the associated risks.
The second point to consider is that many of the anticipated Y2K technology failures have already occurred. According to a recent survey [Cap Gemini is a computer consulting firm. Details about the survey can be found at: <http://www.usa.capgemini.com/.>] 72 percent of the major U.S. corporations and government agencies responding said they had experienced a Y2K-related failure through the first quarter of 1999, up from 55 percent at the end of December." Of the companies experiencing Y2K failures: 82 percent reported data-processing disruptions; 93 percent reported financial miscalculations; 38 percent reported logistical or supply-chain difficulties.
In this context, the what-and-when of any Y2K-initiated "dramatic event" is challenged. We have no reason to expect a sudden onslaught of events on December 31, 1999. In fact, experts have long predicted that Y2K technology failures would begin in early 1999, and extend well into the New Year 2000 with a peak during the transition weekend.
The third point is that Year 2000 concerns have best been described as "management issues with technological solutions." A significant amount of the work associated with Y2K-preparedness does not fall into the "mysterious" domain of computer programmers. It is both possible and important for administrators to know how IT affects their day-to-day operations. Management can determine which systems are critical to normal operations, which suppliers are essential, how dates are used in normal work processes and how staff is expected to respond if a Y2K failure does occur. This work does require scheduling, allocation of staff resources and up-to-date information – but it is manageable, and reliable information is available.
Given the enormous amount of work being done to avert Y2K-related failures, the evening of December 31,1999 may prove the doomsday prophets wrong. One thing is certain: if the transition to the Year 2000 does not present dramatic events, it won’t be because Y2K wasn’t an issue in the first place. Year 2000 computer and microchip issues are very real. The realization of MIT’s stated goal of "no Y2K-driven material failures or disruptions at the Institute" will be the result of the timely completion of Y2K readiness and testing, and the implementation of reasonable precautions.
In addition to Y2K-readiness efforts, the Institute’s existing contingency and business continuity plans are being expanded to encompass Y2K-related concerns. Here, it is important to make a distinction between "prediction" and "precaution." This planning should not be viewed as a prediction of dramatic events. MIT has a comprehensive set of plans in place to address issues that could affect the campus at any time <http://web.mit.edu/security/www/isorecov.htm>. These precautions are in place so that if an event occurs, appropriate actions will have been predetermined, and key staff will know how to respond to the event.
Updated Y2K information is regularly posted to the Y2K Team’s Web site at <http://web.mit.edu/mity2k/>. Additional assistance may be obtained by sending email to: <y2k-help@mit.edu>. The team can also offer assistance in sorting out what's "hype" and what's not.
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