MIT Haystack 

Statistical Analysis of Solar Geomagnetic Storm Occurrences


 

About Us
 
 
 
 
 

Background
 
 
 
 
 

Results
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

     Several questions were directed to Seth before the start of his project.  He was faced with finding patterns in geomagnetic storms.  It was believed that geomagnetic storms occurred most frequently during March and April.  However it was also known that storms seem to occur during the equinox of each year (March 22nd and September 22nd).  So with this knowledge Seth set out to analyze the data.  The data Seth used was taken from the Madrigal Database created by the Millstone Hill observatory.  This database contains data from 1950 to 2002.  We used the Kp (planetary) index to study geomagnetic storms.  Also Seth used F10.7 cm Solar X-Ray Flux to study the solar activity cycle.
     During Seth's first experiments with the data he found that Kp had a double peak.  Every 11 years the solar cycle hits maximum, however Kp seems to have two maximums.  One maximum is found during the years prior to absolute solar maximum, and the other is found during the years after absolute solar maximum.  Several studies have been done on the phenomena and there are two proposed predictions.  One states that the second Kp peak will occur four to five years after solar maximum, the other states that the second peak will occur only 18-24 month after solar maximum.  Our data shows that the second Kp peak is closer to the 18-24 month prediction.


The next set of experiments we ran were designed to confirm the maximum at equinox.  By graphing the data of an entire year we found that there were clear maximums within a few days of equinox.  The graph to the left shows a histogram of the number of Kp storms greater than 6.  By analyzing this graph we found that the equinox were definitely the maximums.  However we wanted to check other levels of Kp.  In doing this you can see the graph below.

  This graph shows a histogram of Kp elements greater than 8.  These storms are very large and are fairly rare.  As you can see by the graph there seems to be a third peak in between the maximums in September and March.  This peak is in July.  In doing some reading we came to the conclusion that this maximum has only briefly been talked about in the scientific community.  It has only been mentioned a few times and no one has attempted to explain it.  The peak in July was an incredibly interesting discovery and the main focus on our work after the discovery.


We found a large maximum in July.  This maximum rivaled the maximums seen during equinox.  The July maximum is seen about every solar cycle.  This result will be one of my main focuses when I write my paper.  By doing some research Seth and Larisa concluded that to their understanding this evades all physical knowledge. 


A large number of graphs were made breaking down the data into different time frames.  One of the most interesting ones is the graph done on BHM or universal time.  This graph clearly shows a maximum between 18 UT and 3 UT.  It also shows a clear minimum around 9 UT.  This variation is most interesting because Kp is a planetary index.  So it may be night time for some of the magnetometers but it may be day time for others.  We believe there must be a physical mechanism at work here.

Download Seth's Power Point Presentations Here:      Haystack Presentation      School Presentation
Haystack Home Page       Contact Us       Links      Project Home Page