MIT: Independent Activities Period: IAP

IAP 2017 Activities by Sponsor - MIT China Program

Dynamics of Real Estate Development in China: Theory and Education

Xin Zhang, PhD candidate

Enrollment: Limited: First come, first served (no advance sign-up)
Limited to 50 participants
Attendance: Participants welcome at individual sessions

The lecture focuses on real estate market discussion from three perspectives: “Uncertainty” (Quantifying Future Value Uncertainty in Development Projects), “Flexibility” (Flexibility in Design in Large Scale Real Estate Projects), and “Methodology” (System Dynamics Analysis on Chinese Urban Housing Market). Each section will take 1.5 Hours. Lunch will be provided at noon time and coffee will be provided in the afternoon.

Sponsor(s): Urban Studies and Planning, Center for Real Estate Development, MIT China Program
Contact: Xin Zhang, (202) 281-4718,

Quantifying Future Value Uncertainty

Jan/17 Tue 10:30AM-12:00PM 9-354

Introduce the concept of real estate system, identify the sources of asset value uncertainty and its variation over time, discuss empirically the evidence about such uncertainty, and modeling in Excel.

Prof David Geltner

Flexibility in Design

Jan/17 Tue 01:00PM-02:30PM 9-354

Introduce the typology of large scale real estate development flexibility options with case studies, including delay option, phasing option, expansion option, etc. 

Prof Richard de Neufville, Xin Zhang - PhD candidate

Potential Housing Bubble in China

Jan/17 Tue 03:00PM-04:30PM 9-354

This session analyzes the potential housing bubble in Chinese urban housing market through the lens of a System Dynamics model. The goal is to demonstrate in casuality structure how non-economic features under certain conditions can become bubble self-feeding mechanisms and lead to escalating price behavior. 

Xin Zhang - PhD candidate