Look at the graphical model outputs of the following models: GFS and ETA (Note: start with the GFS only). Inspect the loop of 850mb Temp, MSLP, 6hr Pcpn.
1. Describe what you expect to happen over the forecast area: explain where the models predict the highs and lows to move and check for precip.
2. Briefly describe any major differences between the models (in terms of precip, pressure, etc.) (Advanced)
The variables you are supposed to forecast are the max, min temperatures and the precipitation category in a 24-hour period (06Z - 06Z)
Max T (F):
Min T (F):
Precipitation categories (Note: If there is a trace of precipitation, 0 and 1 both verify.)
0: no precipitation or a trace
1: trace to 0.05" of liquid, inclusive
2: 0.06 to 0.24", inclusive
3: 0.25 to 0.49", inclusive
4: 0.50 to 0.99", inclusive
5: 1.00" or greater
Scoring: 1 point for each degree of error on Tmax and Tmin.
4 points for each precipitation category error.
Example: You put 34, 21, cat 3. It is actually 36, 20, cat 2. You get 7 points.
Lowest cumulative score wins!
An inaccurate, though well thought out, forecast will not hurt your grade in the class -- it will only hurt your standings in the competition.