WxChallenge Forecast Preparation

Forecasts are due by 8pm (0z)

Email Address: (to keep a copy)
Name:

Time Forecast Prepared (YYMMDD/HHz):
Forecast Period (YYMMDD/HHz): to (YYMMDD/HHz):

Data Collection

Station Weather

Station Observations (opens in a new window)

Category	Current Conditions	Past Tendencies / Trends
Temperature (F)		Max Min
Dew Point (F)
Pressure (mb)		Steady Rising Falling
Wind Direction	N E S W NW NE SW SE
Wind Speed (knots)		Steady Increasing Decreasing
Cloud Cover
Precipitation

US Weather

Satellite/Surface/Radar(Unisys) (opens in a new window)


Examine the satellite maps. Locate regions of clouds and fronts:



MIT maps loop (opens in a new window)

Examine the US surface and satellite maps over the previous few days. Note movement of the highs and lows, fronts and clouds (satellite)):



Upper Air (opens in a new window)

Describe the direction and strength of the upper air flow (the "jet") over the US.


Synoptic Weather Discussion:
Write a brief statement that describes your interpretation of the present synoptic situation. Speculate if there are any significant systems approaching the forecast station area.

CLIMO

Max/min T daily and climo (opens in a new window)
Compare current weather to the climate records.

Forecast Models

Graphical Output

NCEP 'map' view (opens in a new window)

Look at the graphical model outputs of the following models: GFS and ETA (Note: start with the GFS only). Inspect the loop of 850mb Temp, MSLP, 6hr Pcpn.

Model Discussion:
1. Describe what you expect to happen over the forecast area: explain where the models predict the highs and lows to move and check for precip.
2. Briefly describe any major differences between the models (in terms of precip, pressure, etc.) (Advanced)

Model Numerical Output at station location

Time-height cross section (B. Tang) " (opens in a new window): Inspect graphs from (NEAR) SURFACE TIME-SERIES:

Model	Run Time	2mTmax	2mTmin	MOSTmax	MOSTmin
NAM
GFS

Model	Run Time	windmax(stochastic)(knts)
NAM
GFS

Model	Run Time	precip (24hrs accumulated) in (in)
NAM
GFS

NWS Forecaster Guidance

Weather Service Forecast

Time	Temp	Precip Prob
Tonight (low)
Tomorrow (high)
Tomorrow night (low)

Your Forecast The variables you are supposed to forecast are the max, min temperatures, wind max and the precipitation amount in a 24-hour period (06Z - 06Z) Max T (F): Min T (F): Wind max (knts): Precip (inch): To submit your forecast go to: WxChallenge Entry page

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