System Dynamics `96

Conference Schedule

Mon 9:00

Plenary - Resources and the environment

Dyner, Isaac, Derek W. Bunn

Development of a Systems Simulation Platform to Analyse Market Liberalisation

and Integrated Energy Conservation in Colombia

Jordao, Luis, M.P. Antunes, R.F. Santos

Reactive vs. Proactive Corporate Environmental Management: A System Dynamics

Learning Environment

Moxnes, Erling

Crisis Management of a Renewable Resource

Mon 11:00

Business applications

Antunes, Maria Paula, Rui Santos, Nuno Videira

The Impact of Environmental Policy on a Firm's Behavior - a System Dynamics


Cloutier, L. Martin, Steven T. Sonka, Randall E. Westgren

Linking the Firm to Its Environment: A System Dynamics Approach

Kallenberg, Robert, Charles H. Fine

Analysis of Business Cycles in the U.S. Machine Tool Industry

Maliapen, Mahendran, Ram Ramasehan, M. Quaddus

System Dynamics Approach to Market Modeling in the Airline Industry

Mon 11:00


Lao, Hong Mou

Energy Capacity Management for the Industrial Sector of Zhejiang Province in

China: a System Dynamics Model

Smith , Ricardo, Santiago Montoya, Carlos Jaime Franco, Isaac Dyner

Assessing the Dynamics of Energy Markets Under Liberalisation Process

Tasrif, Muhammad

The Implications of Environmental Considerations in Energy Development to the

General Economic Welfare and Development of Indonesia

Garcia-Ochoa, Fernando Gascon

Reputation in Banking and Deposit Insurance: the Dynamics of Borrowing and

Lending under Regulation

Homer, Jack, Fred Nichols

Enterprise Modeling at ETS: Highways and Biways

Qu, Weishuang, Gerald O. Barney, Jos Verbeek

RMSM-X in Vensim: Refining the Financial Sector of the Threshold 21 National

Development Model

Mon 11:00


Diehl, Ernst

Proactive Maintenance and Reactive Repair

Lehmann, Frank

A Systems View of the Design of Modern Manufacturing Systems

Wang, Wanlong, Jerry Fuh, X Yongnian

Dynamic Analysis of Manufacturing Systems

Willey, Phillip C.T., Amil K. Bajpai

A Systems Dynamic Model of Manufacturing Quality Costs and Benefits

Mon 11:00

System dynamics in the Schools

Guthrie, Scott, Diana Fisher

Systems Thinking and System Dynamics in the CC-STADUS High School Project

Joy, Timothy

Crime and Astonishment

Smith, Andrew, Allen Boorstein

A Systemic Approach to System Dynamics Education: a Status Report

Mon 1:30


Mandal, Purnendu, Amrik S. Sohal

Modeling Quality Improvement Processes

Smits, Cyprian A., E. J. Verroen

A System Dynamics Model for Long Term Travel Demand Forecasting and Policy


Xu, Qingrui, Jie Han, Bin Guo, Jin Chen

Hi-tech Impulse: A New Coordinative Development Pattern of

Social-Economy-Technology-Education System

Zamudio-Ramirez, Pavel, Andrew Spicer, John Sterman, Steve Eppinger

Economics of Automobile Recycling

Mon 1:30

Competitive dynamics

Coyle , R. G. , C. J. Miller

The Strategic Dynamics of Counter-Insurgency Warfare

Drew, Stephen A., Peter A. Smith

Competitive Advantage Through Knowledge Management: a System Dynamics Approach

Hines, James H., Dewey Johnson

Competitive Dynamics: Context, Model, Outcome, and Ongoing Use

Morita, Michiya, Nobuhide Tanaka, Yutaka Takahashi, Toru Higuchi

Linkage Structure and Trade-offs of Competitive Measures

Sterman, John D., Rebecca Henderson, Eric Beinhocker, Lee I. Newman

A Behavioral Analysis of Learning Curve Strategy

Mon 1:30

Learning labs research

Cavaleri, Steven A., James A. Thompson

Assessing the Efficency of Microworlds for Promoting Systems Thinking

Maier, Frank, Juergen Strohhecker

Do Management Flight Simulators Really Enhance Decision Effectiveness?

Yang, Jenshou

Facilitating Learning Through Goal Setting in a Learning Laboratory

Mon 1:30


Andrade Sosa, Hugo Hernando, Alvaro Ramirez Garcia, Jose Daniel Cabrera Cruz

Re-building Knowledge by Assumption of Complexity with System Dynamics - A Case

Example in Polymerization Process Engineering

Benassi, Mario, Roberto Berchi

Modularization of the Enterprise and System Dynamics Models: An Application to

the Explication of Suggestions from the Shops

Crespo Marquez, Adolfo, Rafael Ruiz Usano, Jose Manuel Framian Torres,

Ricardo Zubiria de Castro

The Pull Control Systems: A System Dynamics Perspective

Mandal, Purnendu, Amrik S. Sohal

Understanding Long Term Interactions in Fabricated Metal Manufacturing

Industry: A Case

Mon 1:30

Strategic planning

Maier, Frank

Substitution Among Successive Product Generations - An Almost Neglected Problem

in Innovation Diffusion Models

Mollona, Eduardo

The Dynamics of Organizational Heuristics and Biases in Corporate Strategy

Morecroft, John

A Behavioural Model of Diversification and Performance in a Mature Industry

Mon 1:30

Urban and regional dynamics

Alfeld, Louis Edward

Dynamic Simulation of Rural Social and Economic Interaction

Despotakis, Vassilios K., Maria Giaoutzi

Spatial Modeling of Urban Dynamics

Zagonel dos Santos, Aldo A.

A Dynamic Model for Analyzing Urban Growth in a Planned City

Mon 3:30

Plenary - Methodology

Lyneis, James M., Alexander L. Pugh III

Automated vs. `Hand' Callibration of System Dynamics Models: An Experiment

With a Simple Project Model

MacDonald, Roderick H.

Discrete Versus Continuous Formulation: A Case Study Using Coyle's Aircraft

Carrier Survivability Model

Kampmann, Christian E.

Feedback Loop Gains and System Behavior

Tues 9:00

Plenary - Assessment

Akkermans, Henk, Jac Vennix

Clients' Opinions on Group Model-Building: An Exploratory Study

Huz, Steven, David F. Andersen, George P. Richardson, Roger Boothroyd

Evaluating Group Model Building in Mental Health Vocational Services

Langley, Paul, John Morecroft

Learning from Microworlds Environments: a Summary of the Research Issues

Young, Showing H., Sy-Feng Wang

Measuring the Learning of Systems Thinking: Theory and Method

Tues 11:00

Business process reengineering

Georgantzas, Nicholas C.

Reengineering Business Process Reengineering with System Dynamics

Mayberry, Matt, Kent Hoxsey, Kerry McCracken, Carl Rendell

Using Systems Thinking and Dynamic Simulations to Reengineer Manufacturing

Processes at Silicon Graphics

Mojtahedzadeh, Mohammad, David F. Andersen

Assessing the System-wide Impacts of Automated Voice Response Customer Service


Yu, Lijuan

Guided by Learning Organization to Practice a Process Reengineering for an

Enterprise Business

Tues 11:00

Dynamic decision making

Doyle, James K., Michael J. Radzicki, W. Scott Trees

Measuring the Effect of Systems Thinking Interventions on Mental Models

Elg, Fredrik

An Approach for Understanding Learning and Decision Making in Complex Dynamic


Park, Hun-Joon, Jinwoo Kim, Kuen S. Yi, Kiho Jun

Enhancing the Performance in Dynamic Decison Making: The Adaptive Model

Reconstruction Using Feedforward vs. Feedback Decision Strategy

Young, Showing H., Chia Ping Chen

Entrapping Landmine Structure in Microworlds Formed with Uncontrollable

Positive Feedback Loops

Tues 11:00

Management and organizations

Barton, John

A Framework for Addressing Contemporary Management Problems

Koenig, Ulli H.

Use of Simulation in Management and Management Education - Speeding up the

Wheel of Learning?

Sastry, Anjali, Thomas Fiddaman

Madness in the Method? Reexamining an Influential Model of Organizational

Learning and Adaptation

Sotaquir G., Ricardo, Hugo Andrade, Lilia Nayibe Gelvez

Organizational Design with System Dynamics and Radical Change Approach

Tues 11:00

Modeling process

Aronson, Daniel

Walking Through the Minefield: How Systems Thinkers Avoid Fallacies of

Perception and Action

Gary, Shane, Chris Charyk

Using Groupware Technology to Facilitate Team Model Building and Learning

Karsky, Michel, Stephane Copin, Sonia Pitrach

The Implementation of a Large System Dynamics Model of Human Behavior

Rouwette, Etienne, Jac Vennix

The Influence of Group Model Building on Policy Intentions

Tues 11:00

System dynamics field

Grcic, Branko, Ante Munitic

System Dynamics Approach to Validation

Lane, David

Can We Have Confidence In Generic Structures?

Oliva, Rogelio

Empirical Validation of a Dynamic Hypothesis

Ryan, Thomas

A Peircian Framework for Using System Dynamics Modeling as an Inquiry System

Sedehi, Habib

SYDIC - System Dynamics - Italian Chapter

Tues 1:30

Business applications

Farris, Paul W., William J. Verbeke, Peter R. Dickson

Modeling Evolutionary Effects of Path Dependencies in Markets

Hall, Roger, M. P. Gupta

Using a Corporate System Model of a Firm to Investigate the Feedback Dynamics

Leading to Growth, Decline, and Bankruptcy

Jambekar, Anil B.

A System View of Design Engineering Capacity: Continuous Improvement Policy


Santoni, Marco

A Simulation Model for the Behaviour of Innovative Companies

Tues 1:30

Dynamic decision making

Haslett, Tim, Charles Osborne

Local Decision Rules: Complexity or Chaos?

Kim, Doa Hoon, Dong-Hwan Kim

How Heuristic are Heuristic Decision Rules in a Dynamic Game?

Trees, W. Scott, Jame K. Doyle, Micheal J. Radizcki

Using Cognitive Styles Typology to Explain Dynamic Decision Making in a

Computer Simulation Game Environment

Wyatt, Ray

Strategic Planning Using Neural Network-based, Delphi Workshop Software

Tues 1:30


Bernstein, Dan S.

Global Change Education: The Use of System Dynamics Concepts for Science and

Policy Interface

Sahara, Kanji, Kinya Machida, Nobuyuki Suzuki, A. Uchino

Environmental Model of Atmosphere - from Japan Model to East Asian Countries

Sturtevant, Rochelle

The Effect of Nutrient Recycling on Ecosystem Stability

Tues 1:30

Management and organizations

Colemann-Kammula, Seetha

A Study of the Manpower System of a Shell R&D Laboratory

Hines, James

Modeling the Evolution of Organizations

Larsen, Erik R., Alessandro Lomi

The Dynamics of Organizational Inertia, Survival and Change

Moizer, Jonathan D.

Safety Knowledge and its Influence over Accidents in the Workplace

Tues 1:30

Natural resources

Barton, John, Purnandu Mandel

A Policy Model for a Retail Water Company in Australia

Shawwash, Ziad K., S.O. Dennis Russell

Use of System Dynamics for Managing Water in Jordan

Sunaryo, Prasetyo, Tusy A. Adbroto, Hary Budiarto, Ervan Maksum

Application of System Dynamics on Watershed Management on Java Island,


Tues 1:30

System dynamics in the Schools

Madwed, Albert

Systems Thinking for K-12 Teachers: a New Course at the Graduate School of

Education and Allied Professions, Fairfield University

Root, Gus, Grant McGiffin

They will Learn What They See Others Doing

Zaraza, Ronald, Diana Fisher

Experiences in Developing Single-Discipline and Cross-Curricular Models for

Classroom Use

Tues 3:30

Business applications

Alfeld, Louis Edward, Robert M. Sholtes

The Industrial Base Analysis Model (IBAM)

Barlas, Yaman, Ayse Aksogan

Product Diversification and Quick Response Order Strategies in Supply Chain


Georgantzas, Nicholas C., Stephen H. Brovarone

Globalizing High Sulfur Fuel Oil Marketing

Sedehi, Habib, Carmine Bianchi

A Winery Dynamic Model for "Product Portfolio" Management

Tues 3:30


Parayno, Phares P.

Poverty-Environment Links in the Philippines

Sitompul, Rislima F., Muhammad Tasrif

A System Dynamics View of the Rural Community Development in Indonesia

Suksawang, Orasa

System Dynamics Approach to Managing Community Development

Wang, Qifan

A System Dynamics Study of the Coordinated Development of Regional


Tues 3:30

Model-based teaching

Bianchi, Carmine, Alfredo Moscardini

Budget Formulation, Unpredictability and the Use of System Dynamics as a

Coordinating and Learning Mechanism in Regional Government Management

Fukuda, Atsushi, Yoshio Hanzawa, Ryoichi Ebisawa

Traffic Engineering Class for Technical College Students using STELLA

Haslett, Tim

Three Simulations for Teaching Systems Thinking

Tues 3:30

Natural resources

Bave, Eric

Recycling of Building Materials

Duncan, Richard C.

The Mexican Petroleum `Play' in Two `Acts': Taking Hold of Oil Production Data

Stave , Krystyna A.

Redefining Resources: A Systems Perpective on the Watershed Protection Conflict

Between New York City and the Catskill Mountain Region

Tues 3:30

Systems thinking applications

Alanne , Prikka-Matti P., Anil B. Jambekar

Putting Systems Thinking to Use: A Case Study

Deweese, Michael R.

Decision Making in a Small School District: A Case Study Employing Principles

of Systems Thinking and iThinkreg.

Jonas, Wolfgang

Systems Thinking in Industrial Design

Rothman, Joanna

Applying Systems Thinking to the Issues of Software Product Development

Wed 9:00

Plenary - Project management

Ford, David N., J. D. Sterman

Dynamic Modeling of Product Development Processes

Rodrigues, Alexandre J.G., Terry Williams

System Dynamics in Project Management: Assessing the Impacts of Client

Behavior in Project Management

Wed 11:00

Management flight simulators

Barlas, Yaman, Vedat G. Diker

Decision Support for Strategic University Management: A Dynamic Interactive


Bridgeland, David, Dorothy Yu, Mitesh Suckak

A Management Flight Simulator for Strategy Communication and Organizational


Herrmann, John F., John L. DeOlden

A Flight Simulator for University Department Planning

Wed 11:00

Software project management

Bell, Gary A., J. O. Jenkins

A Proposed Project Management Cost Modelling Taxonomy

Madachy, Raymond

Modeling Software Processes with System Dynamics: Current Developments

Rodrigues, Alexandre J.G., Terry Williams

System Dynamics in Software Project Management: Towards the Development of a

Formal Integrated Framework

Roos, Egbert

System Dynamics Modeling: A Case Study from the Software Industry

Sycamore, Douglas

Improving Software Project Management Through System Dynamics Modeling

Wed 11:00

System dynamics teaching

Barton, John

A Contemporary Masters Program in Systems Thinking and System Dynamics

Eberlein, Robert L., James H. Hines

Molecules for Modelers

Shafto, Sylvia A., CJ Kalin, Michael G. Shafto

Cognitive and Instructional Issues in System Modeling

Tosteson, Joshua

System Dynamics and Earth Systems Science: Bridging the Gaps Between Research

and Education

Wed 11:00

Technical methodology

Arthur, William B., Robert L. Eberlein

Sensitivity Simulations

Higuchi, Tohru

Parameter Estimation Involved to System Dynamics Model by Multi-Objective

Optimization Technique

Moxnes, Erling

Stochastic Optimization in Policy Space Using Simulation Models

Reichelt, Kimberly S., James M. Lyneis, Carl G. Bespolka

Calibration Statistics: Selecting a Statistic and Setting a Standard

Wed 11:00

Technology in business

Anderson, E. G., N.R. Joglekar

Modeling the Dynamics of Technological Ramp-up within Firms

Bickle, Bruce, Bernard McGarvey

Application of Dynamic Modeling to a Solvent Recovery Area at a Pharmaceutical

Manufacturing Plant

Cole, Vera J., M. K. Hughes

Using System Dynamics to Determine the Return on Investment in Engineering

Information Technology

Grossman, M.

Designing Strategies to Achieve Sustainable Growth for Biotechnology Companies

Xiang, Gang, Li u Linhong

A System Dynamics Model for an Enterprise's Sustainable Innovation Process

Wed 1:30


Alexander, William

Efficiency in Sustainability - The Efficient Life Styles of Kerala

de Kok, Jean-Luc, H. G. Wind

System Dynamics as a Methodology for Sustainable Coastal-Zone Management

Hsiao, Naiyi

Evaluating the Policy of Stratospheric Ozone Protection - a System Dynamics

Modeling Approach

Krahmer, Elizabeth M., Scott Rockart

Carbon Sequestration and Emission Management: A Costa Rican Case Study

Wed 1:30

Management flight simulators

Andrade Sosa, Hugo Hernando, Jaime Daniel Meja Castro, Ricardo Vicente Jaime

Vivas, Jose Alberto Pinto Mantilla

Microworlds: A System Dynamics Application in Learning Keynesian


Genta, Peter J., Neville Sokol

A Microworld of Exploration and Development: Creating a Learning Laboratory for

the Oil & Gas Industry

Milling, Peter

A Management Simulator to Support Group Decision Making in a Corporate Gaming


Wed 1:30

Modeling process

Piatelli, Mauro, Nicola Bianchi, Luca Minna

Note on Conceptual Distance in Simulation using the Polis Model as a Basis for


Rios, Josez, Markus Schwaninger

Integrative Systems Modelling: Leveraging Complementarities of Qualitative

and Quantitative Methodologies

Ruiz Usano, Rafael, Jose Manuel Framian Torres, Adolfo Crespo Marquez,

Ricardo Zubiria de Castro

System Dynamics and Discrete Simulation in a Constant Work-in-Process System:

A Comparative Study

Wed 1:30

Public policy

Ackere, Ann van, Peter Smith

Analysing National Health Service Waiting Times

Benigno, Edwin

A Model of the Rice Postharvest System in the Philippines

Forrester, Nathan B.

A Hard Look At Social Security

Wolstenholme, Eric

Community Care for the Elderly in the UK

Wed 1:30

Technical methodology

Guerra, Juan Hernandez

Studies of a Model of Entrainment Between Economic Cycles

Ruth , Matthias

Exploring Spatio-Temporal Dynamics in Economic Exchange: A Dynamic Modeling


Sridharan, Sanjeev

Can Vector-Autoregression Methodology Help in an Understanding of the Causal

Dynamics of the Unemployment-Crime Relationships?

Thur 9:00


Mashayekhi, Ali N.

Oscillation in Preventitive Maintenance Programs

Moon, Tae Hoon, Deuk Jong Bae, Doa Hoon Kim, Dong Whan Kim

Comparing Strategies for Building Korean Information Infrastructure Using a

System Dynamics Model

Roberts, James C.

The Structure of Structural Violence

Sturges, Stephen, Graham Winch

Computer Attack: The Role of Modeling in Developing an Integrated Security


Thur 9:00

Learning labs

Carena, Augusto, Dharma Srl

Mass Learning: An Application of System Dynamics

Kunsberg, Philip

An Interactive Simulation of a Manufacturing Enterprise: Preliminary


Stefano, Julia M. Di

Edutaining, Engaging the Learner, and System Dynamics...

Young, Showing H., Shih-Hui Lo

Experiences in Designing Board-type Simulation Games for Center-Satellite

Industrial System

Thur 9:00

Networks and communication

Barron, Antonio, Silvio Martinez, Jose Maria Lopez

A Simulation Model for Telecommunications Services Partially Substituting

Groessler, Andreas

Providing Simulation Models on the Internet

Kim, Dong-Hwan, Jae-Ho Juhn

Dynamics of Networks: System Dynamics Model for Network Externality and

Critical Mass

Thur 9:00

Neural nets, fuzzy logic, and automata

Koerstein, Ralf, Bernd Viehweger

Evaluation of Neural Networks via Generic Modelling using System Dynamics

Macedo, Julio, Rafael Ruiz Usano

An Intelligent System Dynamics Based controller for Fuzzy Managerial Systems

Thiel, Daniel

Instabilities and Deterministic Chaos in Just-In-Time Production Systems:

Comparison between Neural Networks Simulation and Continuous Simulation

Thur 9:00


Drew, Donald R., Allan D. Chasey, Jesus M. de la Garza, Wonkyu Kim

System Dynamics Model of a State Highway Management System

Fukuda, Atsushi, Hironori Suzuki, Takahiro Kojima, Shigeru Koyama

Demand Forecasting System for Suburban Railway Project Using System Dynamics

and Geographical Information System

Khalil, Yehia F., Michael Radzicki

The Dynamics of the Zero-Emission Vehicle Industry

Wile , Kristina, David Smilonich

Using Dynamic Simulation for Resource Management Policy Design at the Minnesota

Department of Transportation

Thur 11:00

Plenary - Dynamics of quality improvement programs

Jones, Andrew, Elizabeth Krahmer, Rogelio Oliva, Nelson Repenning

Comparing Improvement Programs for Product Development and Manufacturing:

Results from Field Studies

Repenning, Nelson

Modeling the Failure of Productivity Improvement Programs

Sterman, John, Nelson Repenning, Rogelio Oliva, Elizabeth Krahmer

The Improvement Paradox: Designing Sustainable Quality Improvement Programs