WxChallenge Forecasting

Forecasts are due at 8pm (0z) for Portland, OR (KPDX).
Enter your actual forecasts on the WxChallenge submission page.

Data Collection

Current Conditions

Portland Observations

Current ConditionsPast Tendencies / Trends
Temperature (F)Max
Min
Dew Point (F)
Pressure (mb) Steady
Rising
Falling
Wind Direction
N
E
S
W
NW
NE
SW
SE
Wind Speed (mph) Steady
Increasing
Decreasing
Cloud Cover
Precipitation

US Weather

Surface - Unisys/PAOC | Forecast surface - WPC
Satellite - PSU | GOES-16 - College of DuPage
Radar - WSI/Intellicast


Forecast Models

NWP Time Series

NCEP Model Output* - Brian Tang
USL Hourly Point Forecast

ModelRun TimeMaxT/MinT/Wind/Prec
NAM
GFS
USL

Model Statistical Guidance

Weather Interface - choose "model data" option #5 for all MOS output.


ModelRun TimeTmax/Tmin/Wind/Prec
NAMMOS
GFSMOS

Model Biases

NCEP Model Diagnostic Discussion

Probabalistic Guidance

SREF - Maps | Plumes
NCAR Ensemble - Maps | Plumes
GEFS [warning: underdispersive] - Plumes

When viewing plumes, be sure to click the correct station (usually on a map) to get time series data for that station.

Short-Range/High-Resolution Guidance

Real-Time HRRR Maps - Philippe P. Papin
Experimental HRRR ensemble - NOAA/ESRL

Experimental Statistical Stuff

Temperature* | Precip - Vince Agard

NWS Forecaster Guidance

National Weather Service Forecast

TimeMaxT/MinT/Wind/PrecPrecip Prob
Tonight (low)
Tomorrow (high)
Tomorrow night (low)


Your Forecast

Enter your actual forecasts on the WxChallenge submission page.
The variables you forecast are the maximum and minimum temperatures to the nearest degree Fahrenheit, maximum 2-minute averaged wind speed in knots, and precipitation (liquid equivalent if snow) to the nearest hundredth of an inch in a 24-hour period (06Z - 06Z).

Max T (F):
Min T (F):
Wind speed (kts):
Precipitation (.01s"):

WxChallenge scoring:
Temperature: One error point for every degree difference between your forecasted max and min temperatures and what actually occurs.

Wind: One half error point for every knot wind speed difference.

Precipitation:
0.4 error points for each 0.01" error from 0.00-0.10", inclusive.
0.3 error points for each 0.01" error from 0.11-0.25", inclusive.
0.2 error points for each 0.01" error from 0.26-0.50", inclusive.
0.1 error points for each 0.01" error over 0.50".

Example: You put 45F, 29F, 15kts, 0.05". It is actually 47F, 30F, 17kts, 0.51". You get 2+1+1+11.6=15.6 points.

Results

Actual weather verifications from NOAA:
Temperature and Precipitation
Wind (from Daily Climate Report) | Alternate link

Official WxChallenge Standings


* Fully or partially restricted