WxChallenge Forecasting

Forecasts are due at 8pm (0z) for Macon, GA (KMCN).
Enter your actual forecasts on the WxChallenge submission page.

Data Collection

Current Conditions

Macon Observations

Current ConditionsPast Tendencies / Trends
Temperature (F)Max
Min
Dew Point (F)
Pressure (mb) Steady
Rising
Falling
Wind Direction
N
E
S
W
NW
NE
SW
SE
Wind Speed (mph) Steady
Increasing
Decreasing
Cloud Cover
Precipitation

US Weather

Surface - Unisys/PAOC | Forecast surface - WPC
Satellite - PSU | GOES-16 - College of DuPage
Radar - WSI/Intellicast


Forecast Models

NWP Time Series

NCEP Model Output* - Brian Tang
USL Hourly Point Forecast

ModelRun TimeMaxT/MinT/Wind/Prec
NAM
GFS
USL

Model Statistical Guidance

Weather Interface - choose "model data" option #5 for all MOS output.


ModelRun TimeTmax/Tmin/Wind/Prec
NAMMOS
GFSMOS

Model Biases

NCEP Model Diagnostic Discussion

Probabalistic Guidance

SREF - Maps | Plumes
NCAR Ensemble - Maps | Plumes
GEFS [warning: underdispersive] - Plumes

When viewing plumes, be sure to click the correct station (usually on a map) to get time series data for that station.

Short-Range/High-Resolution Guidance

Real-Time HRRR Maps - Philippe P. Papin
Experimental HRRR ensemble - NOAA/ESRL

Experimental Statistical Stuff

Temperature* | Precip - Vince Agard

NWS Forecaster Guidance

National Weather Service Forecast

TimeMaxT/MinT/Wind/PrecPrecip Prob
Tonight (low)
Tomorrow (high)
Tomorrow night (low)


Your Forecast

Enter your actual forecasts on the WxChallenge submission page and/or the National Forecaster submission page.
The variables you forecast are the maximum and minimum temperatures to the nearest degree Fahrenheit, maximum 2-minute averaged wind speed in knots, and precipitation (liquid equivalent if snow) to the nearest hundredth of an inch in a 24-hour period (06Z - 06Z).

MinMaxWxC
Max T (F):
Min T (F):
Wind speed (kts):
Precipitation (.01s"):

WxChallenge scoring:
Temperature: One error point for every degree difference between your forecasted max and min temperatures and what actually occurs.

Wind: One half error point for every knot wind speed difference.

Precipitation:
0.4 error points for each 0.01" error from 0.00-0.10", inclusive.
0.3 error points for each 0.01" error from 0.11-0.25", inclusive.
0.2 error points for each 0.01" error from 0.26-0.50", inclusive.
0.1 error points for each 0.01" error over 0.50".

Example: You put 45F, 29F, 15kts, 0.05". It is actually 47F, 30F, 17kts, 0.51". You get 2+1+1+11.6=15.6 points.

National Forecaster scoring:
Points (which in this case are good) are awarded for each variable according to the formula
,
with α = 0.5 for temperature and α = 10 for precipitation.


Results

Actual weather verifications from NOAA:
Temperature and Precipitation
Wind (from Daily Climate Report) | Alternate link

Official WxChallenge Standings


* Fully or partially restricted