WxChallenge ForecastingForecasts are due at 8pm (0z) for Macon, GA (KMCN).
Enter your actual forecasts on the WxChallenge submission page.
Current ConditionsMacon Observations
|Current Conditions||Past Tendencies / Trends|
|Temperature (F)||Max |
|Dew Point (F)|
|Pressure (mb)|| Steady|
|Wind Speed (mph)|| Steady|
US WeatherSurface - Unisys/PAOC | Forecast surface - WPC
Satellite - PSU | GOES-16 - College of DuPage
Radar - WSI/Intellicast
NWP Time SeriesNCEP Model Output* - Brian Tang
USL Hourly Point Forecast
Model Statistical GuidanceWeather Interface - choose "model data" option #5 for all MOS output.
Model BiasesNCEP Model Diagnostic Discussion
Probabalistic GuidanceSREF - Maps | Plumes
NCAR Ensemble - Maps | Plumes
GEFS [warning: underdispersive] - Plumes
When viewing plumes, be sure to click the correct station (usually on a map) to get time series data for that station.
Short-Range/High-Resolution GuidanceReal-Time HRRR Maps - Philippe P. Papin
Experimental HRRR ensemble - NOAA/ESRL
Experimental Statistical StuffTemperature* | Precip - Vince Agard
NWS Forecaster GuidanceNational Weather Service Forecast
|Tomorrow night (low)|
Your ForecastEnter your actual forecasts on the WxChallenge submission page and/or the National Forecaster submission page.
The variables you forecast are the maximum and minimum temperatures to the nearest degree Fahrenheit, maximum 2-minute averaged wind speed in knots, and precipitation (liquid equivalent if snow) to the nearest hundredth of an inch in a 24-hour period (06Z - 06Z).
|Max T (F):|
|Min T (F):|
|Wind speed (kts):|
Temperature: One error point for every degree difference between your forecasted max and min temperatures and what actually occurs.
Wind: One half error point for every knot wind speed difference.
0.4 error points for each 0.01" error from 0.00-0.10", inclusive.
0.3 error points for each 0.01" error from 0.11-0.25", inclusive.
0.2 error points for each 0.01" error from 0.26-0.50", inclusive.
0.1 error points for each 0.01" error over 0.50".
Example: You put 45F, 29F, 15kts, 0.05". It is actually 47F, 30F, 17kts, 0.51". You get 2+1+1+11.6=15.6 points.
National Forecaster scoring:
Points (which in this case are good) are awarded for each variable according to the formula
with α = 0.5 for temperature and α = 10 for precipitation.
ResultsActual weather verifications from NOAA:
Temperature and Precipitation
Wind (from Daily Climate Report) | Alternate link
Official WxChallenge Standings
* Fully or partially restricted