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A conference to present and discuss a series of new papers written as part of the global linkages project was held on January 30-31, 2003 at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. The conference was attended by researchers from academia, Washington institutions and think tanks, and policy makers from around the world. A selection of papers presented at the conference will be published in a symposium of The Review of Economics and Statistics.

A few of the main findings of the conference are: 

There is a positive and significant association between comovement across national stock markets and trade integration across countries, both at the firm level through international sales of businesses and at the macroeconomic level through bilateral trade links. 
Regional financial centers and the global business cycle play an important role in the transmission of shocks to emerging markets. 
Long-run factors (such as convergence in the sectoral composition of output across countries) and financial innovations (such as cross-listings and ADRs) are playing an important role in the increasing synchronization of financial markets and real activity.

The conference agenda (a pdf file)

Conference Schedule, Papers, and Presentations


January 30

8:30am - 9:00am

Coffee and pastries


9:00am - 9:10am

Welcome and opening remarks

Kenneth Rogoff (IMF)



Financial Market Comovement and Real Linkages

Chair: David Robinson (IMF)


9:10am - 10:00am

Firm-level Evidence on International Stock Market Comovements

By Robin Brooks (IMF) and Marco Del Negro (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

Discussant: Kathryn Dominguez (University of Michigan)


Conference Paper | Presentation | Discussion | Revised Paper


10:00am - 10:50am

A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets over Time

By Kristin Forbes (MIT-Sloan) and Menzie Chinn (UC-Santa Cruz)

Discussant: Andy Rose (UC-Berkeley)


Conference Paper | Presentation | Discussion | Revised Paper


10:50am - 11:20am

Coffee Break



Global Linkages During Financial Crises

Chair: Montek Ahluwalia (IMF)


11:20am - 12:10pm

The Center and the Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Turmoil

By Graciela Kaminsky (George Washington) and Carmen Reinhart (IMF)

Discussant: Andrew Ang (Colombia Business School)


Conference Paper | Presentation | Discussion | Revised Paper


12:15pm - 1:30pm




A Closer Look at Specific Linkages in Financial Markets

Chair: Charles Collyns (IMF) - before break

Chair: Shang-Jin Wei (IMF) - after the break


1:30pm - 2:20pm

U.S. Investors' Emerging Market Equity Portfolios: A Security-Level Analysis

By Hali Edison (IMF) and Frank Warnock (Federal Reserve Board)

Discussant: Robert Flood (IMF)


Conference Paper | Presentation | Discussion | Revised Paper


2:20pm - 3:10pm

Are Daily Cross-Border Equity Flows Pushed or Pulled?

By John Griffin (Arizona State), Federico Nardari (Arizona State), and Rene Stulz (Ohio State-Fisher School)

Discussant: Steven Kamin (Federal Reserve Board)


Conference Paper | Presentation | Discussion | Revised Paper


3:10pm - 3:40pm

Coffee Break

3:40pm - 4:30pm

Time Varying Synchronicity in Individual Stock Returns: A Cross-Country Comparison

By Kan Li (University of Alberta), Randall Morck (University of Alberta), Fan Yang (University of Alberta), and Bernard Yeung (NYU)

Discussant: John Campbell (Harvard)


Conference Paper | Presentation | Discussion | Revised Paper


4:30pm - 5:20pm

The Role of ADRs in the Development and Integration of Emerging Equity Markets

By G. Andrew Karolyi (Ohio State-Fisher School)

Discussant: Sergio Schmukler (World Bank)


Conference Paper | Presentation | Discussion | Revised Paper



Cocktails and dinner (by invitation only)

IMF Dining Room


January 31


8:30am - 9:00am

Coffee and pastries



Real Sector Comovements and Business Cycles

Chair: Barry Bosworth (Brookings Institution)


9:00am - 9:50am

Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization

By Jean Imbs (London Business School)

Discussant: Marianne Baxter (Boston University)


Conference Paper | Presentation | Discussion | Revised Paper


9:50am - 10:40am

Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles

By M. Ayhan Kose (IMF), Christopher Otrok (University of Virginia), and Charles Whiteman (University of Iowa)

Discussant: David Backus (NYU)


Conference Paper | Presentation | Discussion | Revised Paper


10:40am - 11:10am

Coffee Break



Global Linkages Over the Long Term

Chair: Gerd Hausler (IMF)


11:10am - 12:00pm

Long-term Global Market Correlations

By K. Geert Rouwenhorst (Yale), William Goetzmann (Yale), and Lingfeng Li (Yale)

Discussant: Yishay Yafeh (Hebrew University)


Conference paper | Presentation | Discussion


12:00pm - 1:30pm



1:30pm - 3:00pm

Panel on Global Linkages

Introduction and moderator: Ashoka Mody (IMF) - presentation

Stefano Cavaglia (UBS Asset Management) - presentation

Randall Kroszner (CEA and University of Chicago)

Anoop Singh (IMF)

Vincent Reinhart (Federal Reserve Board) - presentation