Image of Cabo San Lucas (Courtesy of Paul Bausch)
MIT 11.951
Simulating Sustainable Futures
Spring 2007
12 Units
Schedule/class location TBA
Image of Cabo San Lucas (Courtesy of Paul Bausch)
While issues surrounding sustainable development have garnered a great deal of attention in recent years, implementation of such practices remains challenging and relatively rare. The alternative futures planning method is a GIS-based framework for plan generation and impact evaluation which provides opportunities for substantive participation of citizen stakeholders, designers, planners, and scientific researchers in addressing sustainability issues. In this class, we will apply this general method to a case study area in Cabo San Lucas, Baha, Mexico.
Students will work in a series of small self-selected teams. The initial portion of the class will involve a site visit, with opportunities for both formal and informal data gathering and stakeholder meetings. A GIS depicting current conditions in the area will be constructed. The second phase of the class will involve the creation of spatial evaluation models designed as indicators of various aspects of sustainability (biodiversity, social justice, water quality, energy consumption, etc.) The third phase of the class will be the development of substantive planning proposals for the area in the form of spatial scenarios. The forth and final phase will be the generation of impact analyses and 3D visualizations for each scenario according to each evaluation model. By the end of the term, we will have constructed a synoptic view of the major strategic choices facing the study area, and their likely consequences.
Instructor's permission is required. Participants in the class are expected to have a basic familiarity with GIS equivalent to that provided by the MIT 11.520 “Workshop on Geographic Information Systems.” Each participant will in turns act as a designer/planner, GIS analyst, and subject specialist. The intent of the class is that participant leave having had the experience of applying GIS-based simulation to a real set of planning problems, and be capable of using GIS for their own similar work in the future. Participants will be required to present and document their work in a series of class presentations throughout the semester, and in a final review, but there will be no formal papers required.
Case Study 2007: Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
Sustainable development can be particularly challenging in the context of the developing world. Here, issues of poverty, political transparency and local control run up against globalized tourism and real estate markets. The region of Southern Baja California, Mexico, is a microcosm within which we will examine these issues.
Cabo San Lucas is a mountain-backed beach resort of exceptional natural beauty and fragility. The area is essentially a desert, but one which is subject to strong hurricanes on a regular basis. It has also become an international tourist destination and is current experiencing extraordinarily high growth pressure. In the last three years, tourism has doubled and population has been growing at a rate of 15-20% per year. This area has nearly full employment and a per capita income double the national average – both key issues in a country of widespread poverty.
The current master plan for the area is relatively recent and only 40% built out. However, in response to both growth pressure and to local political concerns about the location of future development and its revenue streams, the state government has commissioned a new master plan. This plan allocates approximately six times the developable area of the current plan. It proposes a new city, a newly reinstated airport, and extensive development in current conservation areas, including mountainous foothills and floodplains. This plan would locate most development on former communally-owned “Ejido” lands, providing income to inland residents who have not benefited as much from recent development as coastal owners.
A consortium of local citizens has asked for our assistance in evaluating current conditions and proposals, and in developing a set of preferred alternatives. Their concerns vary, as do their interests. Local business and hotel owners are interested in increased economic opportunities, but very concerned that the proposed expansion of development could jeopardize the environment which has thus far provided one of the best high-end tourism markets in Mexico. Meanwhile, environmental advocates are alarmed at both the extent and location of proposed development zones, arguing that there is not sufficient water or energy to support the proposal and that the environmental consequences of building in sensitive areas will be substantial. Local community and social service groups take a variety of positions. In general, they remain concerned that official planning ignores “spill-over” development and that insufficient attention has been paid to the very real infrastructure and service needs of the workers staffing the tourism industry and related businesses.
Logistics
*** Mandatory Site Visit January 28th – February 3nd, 2007 ***
Students are expected to make their own arrangements to arrive in Cabo San Lucas on or before 9am, Monday January 29th. We will spend 5 days in and around Cabo, including side trips, and finishing Friday evening February 2nd. (Travel from and to Boston normally takes a full day). Depending on student interest, an optional follow-on excursion to Cabo Pulmo for snorkeling and scuba diving may be organized on Saturday the 3rd at additional cost.
Funding
Roundtrip airfare to the study area and back to Boston will be reimbursed up to $500 per person (current cost on Boston-Cabo roundtrip American Airlines or United flights is about $400 including tax, but please book asap). Note that university rules require that ticket receipts be kept for reimbursement and credit card records are not considered sufficient.
Hotel accommodations consisting of shared rooms will be provided. Food will be provided when eating with the main group. Students should anticipate covering some minor food and expense costs out of pocket when working in groups in the field.
Language
The class and site visit will be conducted in English. However, Spanish speaking ability will be of great utility both to the individual and to the group as a whole.
Visas, etc.
Tourist visas are not currently required by Mexico for U.S. citizens. However, foreign nationals are responsible for checking and meeting appropriate requirements. One source of information is the web site below. You should have a valid passport, and/or other travel documentation as required (also described below).
http://www.consulmexny.org/eng/visas_fmt.htm
Commitment / Schedule
Because travel logistics need to be made with reasonable lead time, and because MIT will be covering costs, participation in this class is subject to the following terms and schedule: