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[Event "Watertown Open Pairs  2-25-2012"]
[Site ""]
[Date ""]
[Board "4"]
[West ""]
[North "John"]
[East ""]
[South "Lloyd"]
[Dealer "W"]
[Vulnerable "All"]
[Deal "W:KQ2.3.T98762.753 AT9.KJ87.J.AQT82 J543.Q96.Q43.K64 876.AT542.AK5.J9"]
[Scoring ""]
[Declarer "S"]
[Contract "4H"]
[Result ""]
{\n
Today I had the pleasure of watching Lloyd Arvedon and John McLaughlin play a
session of bridge at the Watertown sectional tournament.  This was the final
deal.

The \D10 was led and won by Lloyd with the ace.  He played over to the ace of
trump and back to the king, apparently misguessing the suit.  He then passed
the \CJ, East took his two tricks, and Lloyd claimed, making five.  No big
deal?

Lloyd remarked after the session that he had not cue-bid 4\D, because he did
not want a spade  lead.  Perhaps West should have led a spade anyhow, but she
selected the apparently safe diamond lead.  After a spade lead, Lloyd would
have been guessing trumps for at most one overtrick.

Lloyd's play of the trump suit virtually assured a key matchpoint overtrick
(and a second, if the \HQ drops).  Had he finessed in trump and lost, a spade
shift would have held him to four.  Yes, the drop is a 2% better chance than
the finesse, but that's not the main reason to play for the drop on this deal.
 On the lie of the cards, Lloyd's 52% play was wrong, but it only cost him one
trick.  Taking the 50% finesse and being wrong would have cost him two tricks.
 The expected payoff on his play was better than 2-to-1.

On the strength of steady, tenacious play, Lloyd and John scored a 63.59%
game, winning this single-session event by 3.46 of their 843.17 matchpoints
across the field.}
[Auction "W"]
Pass 1C Pass 1H
Pass 3H Pass 4H
AP
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