Time is running out for the oil-exporting states
Speakers: John V. Mitchell, Associate Research Fellow, Chatham House and Research Adviser, Oxford Institute of Energy Studies
Paul Stevens, Senior Research Fellow for Energy, Chatham House and Emeritus Professor, Dundee University
Date: Friday, September 12, 2008
Time: 2:00 PM
Location: Muckley Building, Room E40-496
Sponsor: Co-sponsored by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change and the MIT Energy Initiative
Abstract
Petroleum-fuelled prosperity is masking the challenge of oil depletion and removing the sense of urgency that is desperately needed to promote diversification in oil-exporting states. All eyes are on supply-demand dynamics instead of how these countries' economies can be sustained as oil and gas resources deplete.
A new report by Chatham House, Ending Dependence: Hard Choices for the Oil-Exporting States, says today's oil-price boom may be raising the global profile and financial clout of oil-exporting countries, but it also has increased their dependence on oil, (and gas) revenues. This cannot continue: production will level off and eventually fall, and rising energy consumption at home will reduce the amount available for export. For these countries to continue to prosper, dependence on oil revenues must be reduced, but time is running out for finding sufficient alternatives to sustain current or even moderate rates of growth.
The authors of the report will discuss this challenge and the hard choices that the oil-exporting states face, and the implications for global energy markets.
About the speakers
John V. Mitchell received a lifetime achievement award for research from King Abdullah at the opening of the 3rd OPEC Summit in Riyadh in November 2007. Mitchell has written three books, published by Chatham House/Earthscan: The New Economy of Oil (2001); Companies in a World of Conflict (editor, 1998); and The New Geopolitics of Energy (1996). He was a contributor to Oil Titans by Valérie Marcel (Brookings/Chatham House, 2006), and has written numerous reports, briefing papers and journal articles, including Oil for Asia (Chatham House, 2007); A New Era for Oil Prices (Chatham House, 2006); ‘L'autre face de la dependence énergétique’ (Politique étrangère, 2006). He retired in 1993 from British Petroleum where his posts included Special Adviser to the Managing Directors, Regional Co-coordinator for BP's subsidiaries in the Western Hemisphere, and head of BP's Policy Review Unit.
Paul Stevens was educated as an economist and as a specialist on the Middle East at Cambridge and the School of Oriental and African Studies, London. He taught at the American University of Beirut in Lebanon (1973-79), interspersed with two years as an oil consultant; at the University of Surrey as lecturer and senior lecturer in economics (1979-93); and as Professor of Petroleum Policy and Economics at the Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee (1993-2008) — a chair created by BP. Professor Stevens has published extensively on energy economics, the international petroleum industry, economic development issues and the political economy of the Gulf. He also works as a consultant for many companies and governments.
