Orhan 2 Day 20 TE 6063

We have an army coming north from Arakin (the capital of Stroane),
heading for Niev. There is a big supply build-up at Niev, sufficient
to get that army at least as far as either Orian or Santa Vallandra,
plus have time for a siege.

Reconnaissance reveals that the army totals about 2500 guys, of whom
1500 seem to be Stroane regulars, plus 1000 in assorted mercenary
companies. As far as we can tell, the mercenaries are cannon fodder
as opposed to high-quality (but we didn't ID all of them).

Koren Maas says that of the remaining Stroane troops, about half (i.e.
about 500) are in Arakin, and about half are nowhere to be found. He
cautions not to underestimate the guy in charge of Stroane (that's the
general who won the 3-headed power struggle). He didn't share his
guess about where they're going.

We consulted Veriac to see if he could tell anything about the
destination of the army or the whereabouts of the missing part. He
got "the ocean" and "the crossroads" (or things amounting to that) in
his divination for the missing guys. We didn't get anything else that
had a clear meaning.

Orian has most of the merchant shipping on the Sea of Votania, and
Stroane has most of the military ships. My best guess about the
meaning of that divination is that the missing troops are on ships,
ready to be landed at an inconvenient time/place.

Orian is starting to see an exodus of people of means--there's clearly
some sense that it's time to get out. Most of Orian's armed forces
are supported by individuals or small groups, so if the people with
money all leave, most of the troops will probably leave as well.
Orian has a wall, and our guess is that they could repulse the
"missing force" if that was all that landed near them, but they have
little chance of holding out if we don't intervene.

Various investigations show that there isn't anyone else in position
to intervene, and no prospect for obtaining significant reinforcements
via mercenaries before the whole thing comes to a head.

Orian is on the far side (from Stroane) of a river that flows into the
Sea of Votania, but the river is thoroughly bridged, so that's not as
useful as it might be. Speculation is that if the Stroane army stays
near the coast, resupply by sea probably won't be hard (unless we
change that situation...). On the whole, it's tricky to protect Orian
without risking uncovering Santa Vallandra.

The upside is that we're definitely higher quality and better equipped
by a long shot. It's probably possible to neutralize the mercenaries
by paying them off (not to switch sides, but to just exit the war),
but this will cost in the ballpark of 2-5K in gold