Spring 2013 Seminar Series

DATE: February 21st
LOCATION: E51-315
TIME: 4:15pm
Reception immediately following

SPEAKER:
Edward H. Kaplan

TITLE
Terror Queue Staffing and the Duration of Terror Plots

ABSTRACT
How many good guys are needed to find the bad guys? Simple staffing formulas are developed to prevent a specified fraction of terror attacks (or satisfy related objectives) via the terror queue model of the detection of terror plots. Motivated by a recently published estimate of the probability distribution for the duration of Jihadi plots in the US (time from plot initiation until interdiction or an attempted attack, whichever comes first), the staffing formulas are shown to hold for terror queues with proportional hazards, that is, when the instantaneous probability of detecting a plot is proportional to the instantaneous chance of a terror attack.