Short Programs

Epoch-Based Thinking: Anticipating System and Enterprise Strategies for Dynamic Futures

This course is currently only offered as a custom program. The below description should be taken as an example of content and can be tailored to meet company needs. If you have been thinking about a customized course for your group of 25 or more, please review additional information on the Custom Programs page.

Overview  |  Learning Objectives  |  Who Should Attend  |  Course Outline  |  Participants' Comments  |  About the Lecturers  |  Updates

Overview

Contemporary systems and enterprises operate and evolve within dynamic environments characterized by changes in leadership, policy, technologies, markets, and stakeholder needs. Learn to apply contextual, temporal, and perceptual-based approaches to anticipate possible futures, and evaluate impacts on systems and enterprises. Understand how to formulate responsive decision strategies for technology and organizational solutions.

Learning Objectives

• Understand the motivation for and increasing importance of developing products, systems, and enterprises for dynamic futures.
• Gain appreciation of the impact of epoch-shifts on technology and organizations through several example cases.
• Understand the concept of epoch-based thinking and how to apply it in formulating decision strategies.
• Have an appreciation for contextual and temporal methods used to develop scenarios and strategies to address uncertainties and anticipated changes.
• Understand how external drivers and factors (political, economic, cultural, market, etc.) can be formally described and evaluated.
• Have an appreciation for temporal properties (ilities) and epoch-based metrics used to aid strategic decision making.
• Discuss perceptual issues faced in strategic decision making including, cognitive preferences, risk aversion, domain biases, and others.
• Have knowledge of the latest published literature in the field and insight into new research directions.

Who Should Attend

This course is targeted for professionals and executives who are responsible for developing and evolving products and systems, and related organizational strategies. The course will be of particular benefit to professionals who must make strategic decisions in the face of a dynamic environment involving complex factors related to technology and organizational strategy, and the policy, market, and resource environment.

Outline of the Course

Day 1: Fundamentals of Epoch-Based Thinking
Students will be introduced to the fundamental concepts for epoch-based thinking, and the dynamic world challenges faced by systems and enterprises. The Epoch-Era Analysis method will be introduced, and contrasted with other contextual or temporal methods such as scenario planning and morphological analysis. Several example cases illustrating the impact of epoch shifts will be discussed, and participants will participate in exercises to deepen their understanding of epoch-based thinking. Topics will include:

• Challenges of the Dynamic World
• Concepts and Constructs for Epoch-Based Thinking
• Related Methods for Considering Context and Time
• Class Exercise 1: Characterizing an Epoch
• Case Examples of Epoch Shifts and Their Impact
• Class Exercise 2: Analyzing Impacts of an Epoch Change
• Perceptual Aspects of Epoch-Based Thinking including Cognitive Limits, Risk Aversion, and Domain Biases
  

Day 2: Application and Advanced Topics
The second day of the course will discuss qualitative and quantitative application of epoch-based approaches, including some of the implementation challenges and considerations. Participants will learn how to perform multi-epoch analysis, including scenario analysis of ordered sequences of possible futures. Class exercises will provide hands-on experience to enhance understanding, and the class will participate in a discussion on advanced aspects of epoch-based thinking. The topics will include:

• Methods and Metrics for Multi-Epoch Analysis
• Class Exercise 3: Decision Making Using Multi-Epoch Analysis
• Formulating Epoch-Based Strategies for Technology and Organizations
• Scenario Building and Analysis Using Ordered Sequences of Epochs
• Class Exercise 4: Epoch-Based Strategies Across a Scenario
• Highlights of Quantitative Epoch-Based Implementations
• Temporal Properties (ilities)
• Summary and Class Perspectives

Note: Various case studies and examples are used throughout the course to highlight concepts or demonstrate application of epoch-based thinking to systems and enterprises. Participants do not require in-depth domain knowledge for lectures or the exercises, but basic knowledge of developing strategies for systems and enterprises is helpful.

Participants' Comments

Robert Chew, Center Director, Singapore Management University
"Donna and Adam covered a broad area, introducing new concepts, done at a good pace with exercises that reinforced understanding of the concepts. [They] were very helpful and responsive, and most importantly, very open with us as some of the concepts were been evolved."

Chris Russo, Manager Architecture and Engineering, ASA
"[The faculty were] very knowledgeable on the subject and eager to teach the concepts."

About the Lecturers

Dr. Donna H. Rhodes
Donna Rhodes is currently a Senior Lecturer in the MIT Engineering Systems Division and a Principal Research Scientist in the MIT Center for Technology Policy and Industrial Development (CTPID). She is a co-founder and research lead for the MIT Systems Engineering Advancement Research Initiative (SEAri) and is also affiliated with MIT’s Lean Advancement Initiative (LAI). Dr. Rhodes has research interests and advises ongoing research projects in the following areas: advanced systems engineering methods; systems engineering leading indicators; defense and commercial systems practices and case studies; value based decision analysis; systems principles and practices applied to enterprises; managing for complexity and uncertainty; systems-of-systems engineering; and strategies for high performing enterprises in the engineering systems context. Prior to joining MIT, Dr. Rhodes had 20 years of experience in the aerospace/defense systems, systems integration, and commercial product industries, where she held senior management positions at IBM Federal Systems, Lockheed Martin, and Lucent Technologies. Dr. Rhodes has been very involved in the evolution of the systems engineering field, as well as the development of several university graduate programs. She has served on a number of boards and study panels to advance systems practice and education and to address issues of national and international importance. She has published numerous papers and research reports in the field of systems, and has co-authored industry and corporate engineering policies, standards, and reports. She has been an invited speaker for numerous international and national events in the field of systems. Dr. Rhodes received her Ph.D. in Systems Science from the T.J. Watson School of Engineering at SUNY Binghamton. She is a Past President and Fellow of the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE), and is a recipient of the INCOSE Founders Award and several INCOSE Distinguished Service Awards. She is also member of IEEE, AIAA, and ASME. In 2008, she received three best paper awards for papers relevant to this course.

For more information on the MIT Systems Engineering Advancement Research Initiative (SEAri), please visit http://seari.mit.edu.

Dr. Adam Ross
Adam M. Ross is currently a Research Scientist in the MIT Engineering Systems Division, and was previously a Postdoctoral Associate with the MIT Center for Technology Policy and Industrial Development (CTPID) and a research assistant with the MIT Lean Aerospace Initiative. He is one of the co-founders of the MIT Systems Engineering Advancement Research Initiative (SEAri) and actively conducts research and advises graduate students. He has work experience with government, industry, and academia including NASA Goddard, JPL, Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, Boeing Satellite Systems, MIT, Harvard, and Florida State University, performing both science and engineering research. Dr. Ross has published papers in the area of system conceptual design and selection, including many publications describing his research and development of the Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration (MATE) method. He has presented research presentations, tutorials, and workshops on the MATE method to a number of government, industry, and academic organizations. He received his dual B.A. in Physics and Astronomy and Astrophysics from Harvard University in 2000, and his M.S. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and M.S. in Technology and Policy from MIT in 2003. He also holds a Ph.D. in Technology, Management, and Policy of Engineering Systems from MIT (2006). He is a member of INCOSE, IEEE, AIAA, and ASME. In 2008, he received three best paper awards for papers relevant to this course.

For more information on the MIT Systems Engineering Advancement Research Initiative (SEAri), please visit http://seari.mit.edu.

Updates

There are no updates at this time.