Noelle Eckley Selin

My research in this area addresses the question of how future air pollution and climate change policies can be designed to minimize the impacts, especially to human health, of air pollution in urban areas. In particular, I am focusing on assessing the global health and economic impacts of future ozone and particulate pollution under different climate and emissions scenarios. Central research questions include:

• How will technologies and policy choices in response to global change, specifically transportation technologies, impact air quality, human health and the economy on global to local scales by 2050?
• What are the quantified costs and benefits of these different adaptation choices?

To address these questions, I am using the MIT Integrated Global System Model, coupled with MIT/NCAR version of the Community Atmospheric Model version 3 (CAM3) of NCAR’s Community Climate System Model version (CCSM) for three-dimensional air quality analysis.

For more information:

N.E. Selin, S. Wu, K.M. Nam, J.M. Reilly, S. Paltsev, R. Prinn and M.D. Webster. 2009. "Global health and economic impacts of future ozone pollution." Environmental Research Letters, submitted [pdf]

N.E. Selin, K.M. Nam, C. Wang, J. M. Reilly, S. Paltsev, M. D. Webster, R. G. Prinn, A. van Donkelaar, and R.V. Martin. "Assessing Uncertainties in Modeling Aerosol Health Impacts." Poster at: Atmospheric Chemistry Gordon Research Conference, Waterville Valley, NH, 23 August 2009. [pdf]

Funding Sources:

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Program, "Air Pollution, Health and Economic Impacts of Global Change Policy and Future Technologies: An Integrated Model Analysis" (co-PI, with Mort Webster), 9/09-9/12 [html]

Mercury is a global environmental pollutant, and current atmospheric concentrations of mercury are three times higher than pre-industrial concentrations. The dominant source of anthropogenic emissions is burning of coal, but industrial processes such as metals production and intentional uses of mercury are also sources. Mercury accumulates in food webs as toxic methyl mercury, posing a risk to human health and the environment. Despite increasing attention to mercury as an environmental problem, there are significant outstanding scientific questions regarding its behavior and chemistry in the atmosphere and biosphere. One area of uncertainty is the atmospheric redox chemistry between gaseous elemental mercury (Hg(0)), which has a mean atmospheric lifetime of 0.5-2 years and is thus transported globally, and divalent mercury (Hg(II)), which is water-soluble and thus subject to dry and wet deposition to ecosystems. Another is the cycling between the atmosphere and land and ocean reservoirs, and the extent to which natural sources and the legacy of past anthropogenic activities affect the current mercury cycle. From a policy perspective, a key objective is to quantify the extent to which domestic and international emissions influence present-day deposition (and thus ultimately human exposure), so that emissions reduction activities can be implemented effectively.

My research focuses on improving understanding of the global sources, sinks and cycling of mercury in the atmosphere and biosphere, using a global 3D atmosphere-ocean-land model for mercury (GEOS-Chem) in combination with analysis of observations of mercury concentrations and deposition. Research questions include:

• What are the major processes controlling the atmospheric chemistry and deposition of mercury?
• What is the role of natural sources and historical mercury emissions in the present-day mercury cycle, and what are their contributions to present-day deposition?
• How can mercury cycling through the atmosphere and biosphere and the natural mercury budget be better quantified?
• What is the relative importance of domestic vs. international emissions to present-day mercury deposition in the United States?

For more information:

N.E. Selin, E. M. Sunderland, C.D. Knightes, and R.P. Mason. 2009. "Source attribution of mercury exposure for U.S. seafood consumers: Implications for policy." Environmental Heatlh Perspectives, submitted [pdf].

N.E. Selin and D.J. Jacob. 2008.“Seasonal and spatial patterns of mercury wet deposition in the United States: Constraints on the contribution from North American anthropogenic sources.” Atmospheric Environment, 42, 5193-5204, 2008, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.02.069. [pdf]

N.E. Selin, D.J. Jacob, R.M. Yantosca, S. Strode, L. Jaeglé, and E.M. Sunderland. 2008. "Global 3-D land-ocean-atmosphere model for mercury: present-day vs. pre-industrial cycles and anthropogenic enrichment factors for deposition," Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 22, GB2011, doi:10.1029/2007GB003040. [pdf]

S. Strode, L. Jaeglé, D.A. Jaffe, P.C. Swartzendruber, N.E. Selin, C. Holmes, and R.M. Yantosca. 2008. “Trans-Pacific transport of mercury.” Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, in press, doi:10.1029/2007JD009428. [pdf]

N.E. Selin, D.J. Jacob, R.J. Park, R.M. Yantosca, S. Strode, L. Jaeglé and D. Jaffe, 2007. “Chemical cycling and deposition of atmospheric mercury: Global constraints from observations.” Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmopsheres, 112, D02308, doi:10.1029/2006JD007450. [pdf]

Funding Sources:

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Graduate Research Fellowship, "Mercury Rising and Falling: Exploring Mercury Cycling through Atmosphere and Biosphere," 9/05-11/07 [html]

My research in this area focuses on the interactions between science and policy on environmental issues. Specifically, I address the challenge of devising scientifically-sound, precautionary policies on hazardous substances, including toxic chemicals and heavy metals. My work has addressed the ways in which scientific assessment processes have been influential in international policy and negotiating processes on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and mercury, as well as explored whether and how the precautionary principle has been applied in European chemicals management. I have also analyzed policy options for global agreements on toxics and heavy metals.

For more information:

H. Selin and N.E. Selin. 2008. “Indigenous Peoples in International Environmental Cooperation: Arctic Management of Toxic Substances.” Review of European Community and International Environmental Law, 17(1):72-83, doi:10.1111/j.1467-9388.2008.00589.x. [pdf]

N.E. Selin and H. Selin. 2006. “Global Politics of Mercury Pollution: The Need for a Multi-Scale Approach.” Review of European Community and International Environmental Law 15(3):258-269. [pdf ]

N.E. Selin. 2005. “Mercury Rising: Is Global Action Needed To Protect Human Health and the Environment?” Environment 47(1):22-35. [pdf]

N. Eckley and H. Selin. 2004. “All Talk, Little Action: Precaution and its Effects on European Chemicals Regulation.” Journal of European Public Policy 11:1 February 2004, 78-105. [pdf]

H. Selin and N. Eckley. 2003. “Science, Politics, and Persistent Organic Pollutants: Scientific Assessments and their Role in International Environmental Negotiations.” International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics 3(1)17-42. [pdf]

N. Eckley. 2002. “Dependable Dynamism: Lessons for Designing Scientific Assessment Processes in Consensus Negotiations.” Global Environmental Change 12:15-23.[pdf]

N. Eckley. 2001. “Traveling Toxics: The Science, Policy, and Management of Persistent Organic Pollutants.” Environment 43(7):24-36. [pdf]

B. D. Rodan, D. W. Pennington, N. Eckley, and R. S. Boethling. 1999. “Screening for Persistent Organic Pollutants: Techniques to Provide a Scientific Basis for POPs Criteria in International Negotiations.” Environmental Science and Technology 33: 3482-3488. [pdf]