Importance. The Anglo-Iranian Oil Co.,
Ltd. in 1950 was the largest
oil-producing company in the world. Its wells spouted 700,000 barrels
of oil a day, or more than a third of the total Middle East production,
10% of world production. Its refinery at Abadan, with a capacity of
500,000 barrels a day, is the world's largest. (All of Texas produces
2,000,000 barrels daily; Russia and her satellites, 821,000.)
With four other Middle East areas, Iran furnished
three-fourths of the
petroleum used in Western Europe. The A.I.O.C. supplied one quarter of
Britain's oil requirements, including fuel for the Royal Navy; produced
most of the oil imported by India, Pakistan, the Far East, Australia
and New Zealand. The U.S., though it produces three times as
much as the Middle East, still imports Middle East oil, took 38 million
barrels in 1949.
Reserves. Of the world's known oil reserve, the Middle East has 42%;
the
U.S. reserve is next, with 32%. But the U.S., which now produces about
6,000,000 barrels daily, more than half the world's supply, is drawing
on its reserves more rapidly than the Middle East. While the U.S.
supply dwindles, the Middle East's grows. Today, the average U.S. well
produces twelve barrels a day, the Middle East well 5,000 barrels.
Know-How. Will Iran be able to run Anglo-Iranian? No
more than 30 of the
company's 300 top senior officials are Iranians, and most of these are
administrative rather than technical men. The Iranians may, at the
most, be able to keep the existing wells going, but they do not have
the technical knowledge to open new ones; they would be able to
maintain only patchwork efficiency at the Abadan refinery, which
includes an intricate catalytic cracking plant set up for the British
by U.S. engineers. Nor does Teheran have the worldwide sales
organization and millions of tons of tankers required to market the
product.
Alternative Sources. Could the free world make up the
loss of 700,000
barrels daily? Replacing Western Europe's deficit alone would require
daily production of an additional 300,000 barrels. It could not come
from the U.S., whose reserve capacity is reportedly down to 439,000
barrels a day, a near record low. Other Middle East fields could
increase their crude oil production, but not for a long time could the
refining capacity of A.I.O.C. be replaced. Western Europe is building
more refineries, but probably not enough to make up for the loss of
Abadan. For basic needs, Australia, the Far East, South and East Africa
have no alternative supply in sight.