Time magazine: Foreign News:
 
Jun. 4, 1951

IRAN'S OIL

Importance. The Anglo-Iranian Oil Co., Ltd. in 1950 was the largest oil-producing company in the world. Its wells spouted 700,000 barrels of oil a day, or more than a third of the total Middle East production, 10% of world production. Its refinery at Abadan, with a capacity of 500,000 barrels a day, is the world's largest. (All of Texas produces 2,000,000 barrels daily; Russia and her satellites, 821,000.)

With four other Middle East areas, Iran furnished three-fourths of the petroleum used in Western Europe. The A.I.O.C. supplied one quarter of Britain's oil requirements, including fuel for the Royal Navy; produced most of the oil imported by India, Pakistan, the Far East, Australia and New Zealand. The U.S., though it produces three times as much as the Middle East, still imports Middle East oil, took 38 million barrels in 1949.

Reserves. Of the world's known oil reserve, the Middle East has 42%; the U.S. reserve is next, with 32%. But the U.S., which now produces about 6,000,000 barrels daily, more than half the world's supply, is drawing on its reserves more rapidly than the Middle East. While the U.S. supply dwindles, the Middle East's grows. Today, the average U.S. well produces twelve barrels a day, the Middle East well 5,000 barrels.

Know-How. Will Iran be able to run Anglo-Iranian? No more than 30 of the company's 300 top senior officials are Iranians, and most of these are administrative rather than technical men. The Iranians may, at the most, be able to keep the existing wells going, but they do not have the technical knowledge to open new ones; they would be able to maintain only patchwork efficiency at the Abadan refinery, which includes an intricate catalytic cracking plant set up for the British by U.S. engineers. Nor does Teheran have the worldwide sales organization and millions of tons of tankers required to market the product.

Alternative Sources. Could the free world make up the loss of 700,000 barrels daily? Replacing Western Europe's deficit alone would require daily production of an additional 300,000 barrels. It could not come from the U.S., whose reserve capacity is reportedly down to 439,000 barrels a day, a near record low. Other Middle East fields could increase their crude oil production, but not for a long time could the refining capacity of A.I.O.C. be replaced. Western Europe is building more refineries, but probably not enough to make up for the loss of Abadan. For basic needs, Australia, the Far East, South and East Africa have no alternative supply in sight.



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