by
Pedro Manuel Barbosa Ferraz de Abreu
Master of Science, Media Arts and Sciences, MIT (1989)
Lic. Computer Engineering, FCT-UNL (1983)
Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning
in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of
Doctor of Philosophy in Urban and Regional Planning
at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
June 2002
© 2002 Pedro M.B. Ferraz de Abreu
All rights reserved.
The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part
Signature of Author__________________________________________________
Department of Urban Studies and Planning
May 28, 2002
Certified by________________________________________________________
Joseph Ferreira Jr.
Professor of Urban Planning and Operations Research
Thesis Supervisor
Accepted by_______________________________________________________
Alice H. Amsden
Chair, Ph.D. Program
by
Pedro Manuel Barbosa Ferraz de Abreu
Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning
on May 28, 2002, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of
Ph.D. in Urban and Regional Planning
ABSTRACT
Given the progress in information technology (IT) in the past 30 years, I hypothesized that new conditions exist for considerable improvements in public participation in decision-making. In order to test my hypothesis, I developed a prototype of an Intelligent Multimedia System to support public and technical consultation and, together with Internet-based collaborative tools, introduced it in the environmental impact assessment review process, for the solid urban waste incinerator of S. João da Talha, Portugal.
Supported by the evidence gathered from this experiment and by my analysis of the qualitative jump these IT developments represent, I argue that it is possible to use this new IT to capture and represent meaningful planning knowledge and with it enable multiple improvements in the public consultation, both qualitatively and quantitatively. On the other hand, observing the institutional responses and constraints during the process, my findings strongly suggest that the current institutional and regulatory context, inherited from old frameworks, is an impediment to fully set in place the improvements enabled by these IT developments. In other words, the decision-making institutional framework has not evolved at a pace fast enough to provide adequate responses to the challenges brought by the new IT. My findings also illustrate how different actors in a decision-making process are constrained by these old frameworks to follow different planning paradigms, further emphasizing the need to adjust to the new technology reality.
In this thesis, I present my hypothesis and research questions; the methodology I followed; the scientific traditions and bodies of literature that support this research; the case study and thesis experiment used to collect direct evidence; the analytical reasoning concerning the IT qualitative jump; the suggested research agenda for this domain; and the conclusions derived from this research, suggesting possible avenues to institutionalize some of the demonstrated IT-based improvements in public participation.
Thesis Supervisor: Joseph Ferreira Jr.
Title: Professor of Urban Planning and Operations Research
Table of Contents
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1. THESIS INTRODUCTION |
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1. Introduction |
19 |
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2. HYPOTHESIS and METHOD |
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1. Hypothesis |
25 |
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2. Research Questions |
29 |
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3. Thesis Methodology |
31 |
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4. Thesis Roadmap |
35 |
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3. ASSUMPTIONS & FOUNDATION |
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1. Assumptions |
47 |
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2. Public Participation Review |
51 |
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3. Information Technology Review |
61 |
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4. DESIGNING AN EXPERIMENT |
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1. Introduction |
85 |
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2. The Problem |
87 |
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3. The Scenarios |
95 |
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4. The Intelligent Multimedia System Design |
105 |
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5. The Experiment Design |
125 |
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6. The Quest for a Case Study |
137 |
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5. THE EXPERIMENT |
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1. Introduction |
153 |
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2. The Case |
155 |
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3. The Actors |
161 |
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4. The Experiment Models |
177 |
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5. The Chronology |
189 |
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6. The Expert Panel |
199 |
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7. The Collaborative Tools |
211 |
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8. The FAQ Model |
225 |
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9. The Institutional Response |
235 |
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10. The Knowledge Acquisition |
257 |
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11. The System |
279 |
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12. The Public Consultation |
301 |
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13. The Knowledge Gap |
327 |
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14. Results Summary |
335 |
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6. DISCUSSING THE EXPERIMENT |
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1. Introduction |
349 |
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2. Experiment Overview |
351 |
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3. The FAQ Paradoxes |
389 |
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4. Planning Paradigms |
405 |
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5. The Institutional Implications |
419 |
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7. THE QUALITATIVE JUMP |
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1. Introduction |
433 |
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2. The Nature of the Problem |
435 |
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3. The Decision Model Implications |
439 |
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8. THESIS CONCLUSIONS |
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1. Conclusions |
449 |
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BIBLIOGRAPHY |
457 |
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APPENDIX |
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FAQ |
469 |
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IMS Acknowledgments |
497 |
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CITIDEP |
499 |
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IMS Portfolio |
503 |
List of figures
Number Page
3.3.5.2.-1 - Rule Index card in the Expert System for Infrastructure Shortfalls 73
3.3.5.2.-2 - Rule example in the Expert System for Infrastructure Shortfalls 74
3.3.5.2.-3 - Expert system inference showing intermediate steps 75
3.3.5.3.-1 - Graph representation of the inference net of shortfall consequences 77
3.3.5.4.-1 - Data Model for Case-Based Knowledge Representation 80
3.3.6.-1 - Role levels for information systems in impact assessment 82
4.4.2.-1 - IMS Trail Template 106
4.4.2.-2 - IMS Trail Book page (theme: Pedro at MIT) 108
4.4.2.-3 - IMS Trail Book editing menu 109
4.4.4.-1 - Example of test of the intelligent automatic layout system 117
4.4.5.-1 - Data Model for Knowledge Based Virtual Office 119
4.6.3.-1. Partial view of the area planned for World Expo 98, in Lisbon (photo 1992) 140
4.6.4.-1 Loures plan for estuary of Trancão (EXPO 98 area) 145
5.2.2.-1 - Municipalities in Valorsul 157
5.7.2.-1 - Personal Computers in European Union, 1997 (source: MCT 1999) 214
5.7.2.-2. Web hosts in Portugal vs. EU and OCDE averages (source: MCT 1999) 215
5.7.2.-3. Yearly increase on web domains in Portugal (.pt domain) 215
5.7.3.-1 - IMS Vocabulary Management Tool - Inserting new group 218
5.7.3.-2 - IMS Vocabulary Management Tool - Merge and Consistency Check Routines 219
5.7.3.-3 - IMS Vocabulary Management Tool - Help card 222
5.7.3.-4 - IMS Vocabulary Management Tool - Classification card, with children nodes 223
5.7.3.-5 - IMS Vocabulary Management Tool - Classification card, with glossary 225
5.11.2.-1 - Intelligent Multimedia System Prototype entry screen 280
5.11.2.-2 - Metaphoric Interface: Public and Technical Consultation "Virtual Village" 282
5.11.2.-3 - Module "Reception Booth" 285
5.11.2.-4 - Module "Community Center for Public Consultation" 285
5.11.2.-5 - Module "Expert's Virtual Office Area" 286
5.11.2.-6 - Module "Expert's Virtual Office Area" 286
5.11.2.-7 - Module "Expert System Center" in the Prototype 287
5.11.2.-8 - Module "Post Office" in the Prototype: Read and /or send comments 287
5.11.2.-9 - Module "Data Archives" - photos 288
5.11.2.-10 - Module "Data Archives" - videos 288
5.11.3.-1 - IMS prototype module implementing data class "Events" 290
5.11.3.-2 - IMS prototype module implementing data class "People" 290
5.11.3.-3 - IMS prototype module implementing data class "Places" 291
5.11.3.-4 - IMS prototype module implementing data class "Entities" 291
5.11.4.-1 - IMS module "Computer Center", for knowledge maintenance 293
5.11.4.-2 - IMS prototype module implementing data class "Answers" 294
5.11.4.-3 - Each answer may include multiple multimedia files in support 294
5.11.4.-4 - IMS prototype module implementing knowledge class "Issues" 295
5.11.5.-1 - Entry page at the FAQ Web site with trails 297
5.11.5.-2 - FAQ question list with technical levels assigned 297
5.11.5.-3 - FAQ answer to selected question 298
5.11.5.-4 - FAQ answer with suggested trails, also with technical levels assigned 298
5.12.3.-1 - "Virtual Office" added feature: select author to check answers by each 304
5.12.3.-2 - Trace Analysis Tool, using trace data 308
5.12.3.-3 - Trace data for user C (all targets, visited modules, Virtual Office, questions) 309
5.12.3.-4- Trace data for users C, F and A (all targets, visited modules) 310
5.12.3.-5 - IMS Trail page on incineration 311
5.12.3.-6 IMS Trail booklet pages on garbage ("lixo") 312
5.12.3.-7 - IMS Trails - IMS Expert Panel session 312
5.12.4-1 - IMS Trails - Public hearing S. João da Talha with sound recordings 315
5.12.5.-1 - Results from the opinion survey at the public hearing at S. João da Talha 318
5.12.5.-2 - Results from the opinion survey at the public hearing at LNEC 318
5.12.5.-3 - Results from the opinion survey with students of Environmental Eng. 319
5.12.5.-4 - Results from the opinion survey with students of Psychology 319
5.12.6.-1 - Survey in S. João da Talha area (NIMBY) 322
5.12.6.-2 - Results from all IMS opinion surveys, by residence 323
5.13.2.-1 Knowledge test questions 327
5.13.5.-1 - Results from the opinion survey at the controlled experiment (before and after) 329
6.2.8.-1 - Evolution of FAQ question compilation 365
6.2.8.-2 - Percentage of FAQ answers inserted in IMS, by actor 367
6.2.15.-1 - FAQ web site accumulated number of visitors 382
6.2.15.-2 - FAQ web site daily rate averages of visitors 383
6.3.2.-1 - Graphs comparing sources of compiled questions and answers 392
6.3.3.-1 - Graphs comparing sources of compiled questions and answers by FAQ class 402
6.3.3.-2 - Graphs comparing sources of compiled questions and answers by FAQ class 403
7.3.2.-1 - Internet access world wide, 1999. source: IDH 445
List of tables
Number Page
3.2.4.-1 - Current Techniques of Public Participation 58
3.3.3.-1 - Chronology of IT landmarks 65
3.3.5.1.-1 - Knowledge Representation Models 71
4.2.6.1 - Summary of problems in EIA and role of IT 93
4.4.3.2.-1 - Example of data structure for composite media object 112
4.4.6.1.-1 - Extract of IMS formal definitions - initial form 122
4.4.6.1.-2 - Extract of IMS formal definitions - examples of metaclasses (i) 122
4.4.6.1.-3 - Extract of IMS formal definitions - examples of metaclasses (ii) 122
4.6.2.-1 - Number of processes by year 138
4.6.2.-2 - Duration of processes (in days) 138
4.6.2.-3 - Number of consultation sites per process 138
4.6.2.-4 - Number of written summaries produced, per process 138
4.6.2.-5 - Number of written summaries produced, per process 138
4.6.2.-6 - Number of ads in newspapers, per process 138
4.6.2.-7 - Number of invited entities (G or NG), per process 138
4.6.2.-8 - Number of people participating (G or NG), per process 138
4.6.4.-1 - Trancão case summary "business card" 147
5.3.15.-1 - Actors’ characterization summary 175
5.5.4.-1 - Thesis Experiment Main Steps and Milestones 191
5.5.5.-1 - IMS / Case studies timeline 194
5.5.5.-2 - CTRSU Case Study Timeline for 1995 195
5.5.5.-3 - CTRSU Case Study Timeline for 1996 196
5.5.5.-4 - CTRSU Case Study Timeline for 1997 197
5.6.3.-1 - Sample of IMS Vocabulary 202
5.6.4.-1 - Knowledge Classes or Canonical Representation 204
5.6.4.-2 - Sample of the vocabulary classification table 205
5.6.5.-1 - Domain Taxonomy for Domain "Environment" 208
5.6.5.-2 - Partial Domain Taxonomy for Sub-Domain "Air" 208
5.6.6.-1 - Initial version of "Issue" Taxonomy, root level 210
5.6.7.-1 - Guidelines for the use of taxonomies to structure IMS knowledge 212
5.8.3.-1.- Issue Taxonomy for the FAQ 230
5.8.4.-1 - Knowledge unit "question-answer" template form 233
5.8.4.-2 - Example of a knowledge unit "question-answer" with template form filled in 234
5.9.6.-1 - System Content and Use Guidelines 251
5.10.2.-1 - Methodology to follow (For each question/answer) 261
5.10.3.-1 - FAQ questions sample 262
5.10.8.-1 - Issue Taxonomy top-level classes 276
5.10.8.-2 - Source of FAQ questions compiled, by Issue class 277
5.10.8.-3 - Source of FAQ answers collected, by Issue class 277
5.10.8.-4 - Source of FAQ answers inserted in IMS prototype, by Issue class 277
5.11.4.-1 - IMS Prototype Knowledge Base 292
5.12.3 -1 - Sample data collected by the "trace" function on user steps in the IMS 308
5.12.5.-1 - Opinion Survey made during the public consultation period 317
5.12.5.-2 - Opinion Surveys background data (public hearings and students) 320
5.13.4.-1 - Knowledge Test grade results 330
5.14.7.-1 - Summary of expected IT roles and corresponding performance findings 345
6.2.17.1 - Total number of projects with public participation and number of opinions 385
6.5.6.-1 - Visible and the invisible IT, from the perspective of the general public 426
6.5.6.-2 - Visible and the invisible IT, minimum requirements for project replication 427
7.3.1.-1 - Period before broadcasting 439
7.3.1.-2 - Period between broadcasting and microcomputer + world wide network 439
7.3.1.-3 - Period after microcomputer + world wide communications network 439
7.3.2.-1 - Evolution of Information Technology and its impact on decision models 444
Acknowledgments
The author wishes to express his gratefulness to family, friends and colleagues, for their support and encouragement; to the many persons, either individually or representing their institutions, that made contributions to this research and as such recognized in this Thesis; to Fullbright, FLAD, INETI, JNICT, FCT-MCT, DCEA-FCT-UNL, MARN, CITIDEP and MIT, for the grants and awards that funded this research; and to Professors Joseph Ferreira Jr, Ralph Gakenheimer, Bish Sanyal, Karen Polenske, Melvin King, Marvin Minsky, Paul Brown (MIT), Michael Shiffers (U. Illinois), Lyna Wiggins (Rutgers U.), Gary Marx (U. Colorado), Lucia Vaina, Helen Patricia Hynes (Boston U.), Fernando Santana, António Arnaud (FCT-UNL), Omar Razzaz (WB), Bernard Marchand (U. Paris), Pimenta Rodrigues (ISEL), João Toste Rego, Fernando Carvalho Rodrigues, José Rebordão (INETI) and Rómulo de Carvalho (LNPN), for their guidance and mentorship.
I dedicate this thesis to my Father and my Mother.
Glossary
AI. Artificial Intelligence
CD-ROM Compact Disc - Read Only Memory
CITIDEP. Centro de Investigação de Tecnologias de Informação para uma Democracia Participativa (Research Center on Information Technology and Participatory Democracy)
CTRSU. Central de Tratamento de Residuos Solidos Urbanos (Solid Urban Waste Processing Unit)
DB. Data Base
DGA. Direcção Geral do Ambiente (Environmental Ministry General Agency)
DRARN-LVT. (or DRA-LVT) Direcção Regional do Ambiente e Recursos Naturais - Lisboa e Vale do Tejo (Environmental Ministry Agency for the Region of Lisbon and Tagus Valley)
DCEA-FCT-UNL. Departamento de Ciencias e Engenharia do Ambiente, Faculdade de Ciencias e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa (Dept. of Environmental Sciences and Engineering of the New University of Lisbon).
EIA. Environmental Impact Assessment
ENGO. Environmental Non-Government Organization
EPA. Environmental Protection Agency, USA
FCT-UNL. Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal
GEOTA. Grupo de Estudos de Ordenamento do Território e Ambiente (Environmental and Land Use Planning Study Group, an ENGO)
KB. Knowledge Base
IPAMB. Instituto de Promoção Ambiental (Institute for Fostering Environment)
IT. Information Technology
IMS. Intelligent Multimedia System
LPN. Liga para a Protecção da Natureza (Environmental Protection League, an ENGO)
MARN. Ministério do Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources)
MDB. Multimedia Data Base
MIT. Massachusetts Institute of Technology
NGO. Non-Governmental Organization
PP. Public Participation
Quercus. Associação Nacional de Conservação da Natureza (National Association for Preserving Nature, an ENGO)
SUW. Solid Urban Waste
WB. World Bank