Annotated GAME Jim Kramer plays Geoff Thevenot in Final Round 3 at the 2006 USSO. Notes by Jason Katz-Brown (MA) and artificial intelligence Quackle (http://quackle.org) >Jim: AACGOST 8F AGO +8 8 AGO and COG (8G, 12, AAST) are both great. AGO sets up the S with the SAGO hook, and ACST is the best leave possible. COG has fantastic defensive value because over and underlaps are difficile. >Geoff: GIIIMRS -GIIIM +0 0 -GII keeping IMRS is the best play. Leaves with 2-vowels, 1-consonant, and an S are solid. -GII averages almost 3 more points per his next turn than -GIIIM. >Jim: ?AACRST H1 CASTRAtO +80 88 Nice! >Geoff: AIIIPRS -IPII +0 0 Exchanging just II, keeping AIPRS, wins approx. 2% oftener. (T)IPI (4H, 6, AIRS) is second best as it sets up a big TIPIS-hooking bingo on column L, but exchange is attractive because (T)IPI makes it hard to bingo through the S, T, and R of CASTRAtO. >Jim: BEILNPT 7C BLIP +15 103 BINT (I6, ELP, 19) is best because ELP has great synergy. Many words include the letters L and P together, and the vowel-consonant ratio 1 to 2 is perfect for an early-game leave. BIN (I6, 17, ELPT) is also good for the same reasons, and the vowel-consonant ratio 1 to 3 is helped by the openness of two A's to play eight-letter words through, as well as defense against vowelitis. BLIP is less defensive and will lose Kramer's 88-point lead more often because it opens up a B and L for eight-letter bingos and leaves the R of CASTRATO open for a double-double bingo. >Geoff: AAAIRRS 1F SACRARIA +61 61 Nice! >Jim: EGIKNRT F7 PARK +20 123 (PA)RK is very strong because EGINT is a great leave for making eight-letter bingos on this board. The PARKA onto row 10 is not a big concern. GINK (I6, 25, ERT) is also attractive but does not bingo as often on Kramer's next turn. >Geoff: DNOSTUW 3H SWOUND +28 89 Great play. SWOUND's ST leave is excellent for getting back in this game. >Jim: EEEGINT 8A GEE +16 139 Best for keeping the passable EINT leave, which is about as good as EGIN. At least he has the opportunity to make an -ING bingo down column A and the R of row 5 to work with. >Geoff: IILMPST 5G PRIMI +18 107 The ILPST leave of IM(PARK) (F5, 20), the best play, is powerful and flexible. There's no reason to play off one's only vowels with PRIMI. IMP (2M, 18, ILST) is also a very interesting play. Having the P at O2 is not risky and Geoff, holding one of only two unplayed S's, can make a high-scoring word from O1 beginning with SP-. He also has good chances to make a seven-letter or longer word starting with the P because of the strong P-L synergy and overall balance of his leave. IMP and the third-best play PIM(A) (2E, 18, ILST) share score and leave, but IMP wins 1% oftener because of these positional considerations. LISP (N1, 34, IMT) making SACRARIAL is wicked but weak. >Jim: EEIINTT 9C TIER +11 150 Best score and leave. >Geoff: LNOSTTZ J1 AZO +32 139 Best because an I or U gives him a bingo (SLOTTING or GLUTTONS down column A), and if he doesn't draw a bingo he can play off a few tiles keeping his powerful NST tiles for a bingo soon. >Jim: DEEINTY 6H ANY +31 181 Best by far because it scores lots of points. >Geoff: ?LNOSTT A1 SLOTTiNG +77 216 (G)LuTTONS 8A and SLOTTiN(G) are equivalent. >Jim: DEEIINT D4 DIEL +10 191 Choices with approx. win percentage: ID (B5, 15, EEINT, 27.4 win%); ID (B2, 13, 26.2%); (K)ITED (10F, 14, EIN, 25.6%); DIEL (EINT, 24.8%). The ID plays are defensive and score well, but the 5 one-point tile leave is virile. (K)ITED is very aggressive but prone to vowelitis as the bag is almost half vowels. DIEL strikes a solid balance, as Kramer averages the highest score on his next turn of the three plays. >Geoff: EFMNOUV 2A LUV +12 228 VENOM (C1, 27, FU, 69.2 win%) is certainly best because it scores tons and draws lots of new tiles so Geoff can get an A for PARKA or an S for general happiness. The EFMNO leave is not horrible but LUV sacrifices way too many points and about 3 win percentages! >Jim: AEEIINT C2 VIE +15 206 The only choice. >Geoff: AEFMNOV 11B FOEMAN +33 261 FOVEA (11B, 3, MN, 79.9%) is the only reasonable play. The V is a very undesirable and FOEMAN wins only 73.4%. >Jim: ADEFINT 12A NEIF +33 239 Kramer would really like a bingo, and FA (12D, 24, DEINT, 24.4%) will net him one most often. Kramer's NEIF (21.7%) is a good play too because it keeps one of two unplayed and valuable A's. Quackle however gives NAIF (21A, 33, DET, 22.3%) the nod over NEIF. With these plays Kramer also retains the T for hooking EF into EFT, and the 9 extra points is a boon especially considering that Quackle is overestimating how often Kramer will bingo after FA. >Geoff: BDEHTVW -BDHVW +0 261 This is simply a huge mistake. Geoff must keep scoring, and W(I)T (5C, 22, BDEHV, 72.0%) is a great scoring play. -BDHVW wins only 57.9%. Like with Wiegand's TUB, playing this rack is correct. In Scrabble, consonant-heavy racks are not a worry. (-BDVW is the best exchange and wins 60.6%.) >Jim: ADEJLST E2 JEST +30 269 Other options are TAJ (13D, 16, DELS) and LASTED (N1, 44, J). The volatile J leave makes LASTED too risky and saccing 14 points with TAJ is a bit promiscuous. However, all three plays win about 47.5%. >Geoff: ACEQRTY -QYC +0 261 -QY wins about 49.52% of the time! -QY is best because ACERT is awesome. Bingos starting with a vowel fit on row 12, bingos starting with T fit on row 13, and bingos starting with R making CASTRATOR fit on row 9! -CQY wins 9% less than -QY because keeping the C shoots up the chance of drawing a bingo next turn dramatically. >Jim: ADGLLOW 13A OWL +29 298 Hoot. >Geoff: ADEEORT 2L ODE +16 277 ODE (38.6%) is innovative because it threatens ODEA, but (J)O (2E, 15, ADEERT 46.2%) is sounder. Geoff can bingo on row 9 making CASTRATOR after JO if he draws C (REACTED), B (REBATED), D (REDATED), L (RELATED), X (RETAXED), or R (RETREAD). He can also bingo on row 12 if he draws A (AERATED), L (ALERTED), or V (AVERTED). This is 8 out of 21 tiles, and it is unlikely that these bingo lines will be blocked. >Jim: ADGHILU O1 LAUGH +38 336 LAUGH and LAIGH O1 are both very good and each shoot Kramer's expected wins above 90%. LAUGH is nice to keep the I for the QI possibility later. LAIGH is nice to prevent the LAUGHTER extension and keep a U to go with the unseen Q. >Geoff: ABEERTV A12 NOVA +21 298 Unseen: CDEHINOOQRUXY. (A)B (G1, 8, AEERTV, 18.0%) is a good play because Geoff can bingo after drawing D (AVERTED), R (AVERTER), or O (OVEREAT, OVERATE) on row 12 or column N (4 out of 13 tiles in the bag). (LAUGH)TER (O1, 36, ABEV, 8.9%) is the play if Geoff wants to try to outscore Kramer without bingoing. After LAUGHTER Geoff is down by only 23, and if Kramer has the Q he could have trouble keeping ahead of Geoff. (NO)VA is to be avoided because it neither poses a big threat to outscore Kramer nor to bingo. Saving LAUGHTER for next turn is unideal because being forced into a three-tile play next turn ruins Geoff's endgame timing; Kramer will leave one or two tiles in the bag and Geoff won't be able to go out in two. But NOVA does offer one very fruitful scenario... >Jim: DINOOXY N5 OX +30 366 Excellent play. Because the unseen tiles BCEEEHQRRTU are very inflexible, Kramer's main goal is to not empty the bag. A two or three tile play is necessary, and OX (99.8%) is high-scoring and leaves flexible letters that can survive being stuck with the Q if he draws it. The only bingo threat from Geoff is ERECTER, on row 12 or column N, or REERECT, making CASTRATOR on row 9. These bingos score a maximum of 72, and then Kramer would be at a deficit of only 4 points if he had played OX, and could make up these points in the endgame. However, Geoff could win after OX if he hits the bingo and Kramer draws an unplayable Q as one of his two tiles. >Geoff: BCEERRT 6L REX +10 308 Unseen: DEHINOQUY. The only play that can win is (A)B (G1, 8, CEERRT). If Geoff draws E he can play REERECT/CASTRATOR on row 9 or ERECTER on row 12 or column M. If he draws O he can play ERECTOR on row 12 or column M. If he draws I he can play RECITER/CASTRATOR. After Geoff draws one of these magical letters, though, the pre-endgame is hideously complex. If Kramer does not have the Q already, he naturally passes after AB and Geoff is dead by Q-stick. If Kramer holds the Q and both E and O on his rack, but not I, his correct play is to block RECITER and play (AGO)NY 8F if he holds NY or pass if he does not. If Kramer does not hold one of E or O, he must pass, and hope to pull through in the endgame. For example, if Kramer holds DHINOQU and Geoff draws the E and plays ERECTER 12G, Kramer wins by 1 point after QUO(T)H K9 and Geoff's (OX)Y N5 riposte. I calculate that Kramer wins about half of these endgame scenarios. If Geoff does not draw one of EIO, and Kramer passes, Geoff can fish off the tile he drew and try again. If he draws E or O on this second try, he has a sure win. >Jim: DEHINOY 7K YEH +24 390 The optimal endgame sequence is: Kramer HOY 7M 32; Geoff (Y)URT O7 21; Kramer I(N)NED G10 13. This results in a final score Kramer 445 Geoff 329. >Geoff: BCEQRTU 10F KERB +12 320 Best is REC (8J, 21). >Jim: DINO 8J NOD +17 407 Now the optimal sequence is: Kramer OD 8K 16; Geoff C(OD) 8J 6; Kramer IN B5 9. This results in a final score Kramer 439 Geoff 326. But when you're US Open Champion no matter what you do, who's counting? >Geoff: CQTU 15A ACT +5 325 >Jim: I I10 BI +4 411 >Jim: (QU) +22 433 Congratulations Jim Kramer! What an extremely well-executed game!