44 Scenarios The three scenarios developed are based on the lifecycle scenarios mentioned in the work of Abou-Jaoude et al. [5]. They reflect the size of the industry and the extent to which regulations are streamlined to allow for easy microreactor deployment. Note that the operational cost increase upon the addition of a second/third/… microreactor is given in brackets. Scenario name Description Space requirement [m2] Year Capacity factor [%] Installation cost [M$] Operation cost [M$/y] Risk [credits] Innovation [credits] Small industry The microreactor industry does not lift off, and there is no change in the current nuclear regulations to accommodate these new types of reactors. Microreactors will be available, but at a high cost and with traditional licensing processes. This scenario is pessimistic. 6000 m2 lot with at most one microreactor 2030 55 138 16 (9) 3 3 2035 65 124 16 (9) 2040 75 116 16 (9) 2045 80 113 16 (9) 2050 85 110 16 (9) Medium industry The microreactor industry is moderately large, which lowers the system cost, and regulatory processes for these novel systems are more streamlined. However, the technology is not fully matured yet; there is still room for regulatory efficiency gains and cost decreases. This scenario is a best estimate, but also on the conservative side. 6000 m2 lot with at most two microreactors 2030 60 88 12 (7) 3 3 2035 70 69 10 (7) 2040 80 60 9 (6) 2045 85 56 8 (6) 2050 90 54 8 (6) Large industry The microreactors are massmanufactured, pushing costs down significantly. Additionally, there is significant industry and regulatory experience with these systems, which allows for the smooth execution of microreactor projects. This scenario is optimistic. 6000 m2 lot with at most five microreactors 2030 60 41 8 (6) 2 2 2035 72.5 28 6 (5) 2040 85 22 5 (3) 2045 90 20 4 (3) 2050 90 19 3 (3)
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