45 Risk and Innovation As a novel technology that fundamentally changes the paradigm of nuclear power production, microreactors definitely belong in the more innovative class of interventions for the MIT campus. This high degree of innovation naturally comes at the cost of increased risk and uncertainty. Starting with industry-wide risks, there is currently no regulatory framework well adapted to the microreactor paradigm. This leaves many aspects of microreactor operations undefined and correspondingly causes large uncertainty in their cost and timeline to implementation. In addition, the true market size for microreactors is up in the air, and this will sensitively impact the future cost of these systems, as their business case relies on mass production. On the project-risk side, it remains to be seen whether the 2030 commercialization timeline will be met. Microreactors might only be available at a later date. Furthermore, if MIT is an early adopter of the technology, there is the risk of “growing pains” such as delays due to an immature supply chain and poorly streamlined regulatory process. As always with nuclear, there is the public acceptance – or rather rejection – risk. Finally, there are the typical budget and schedule overruns for which nuclear is notorious. However, microreactors show much lower risk in this regard as their construction is highly modular, and the overall scale of the project is much smaller. Their novelty might make you think that microreactors also carry a higher safety risk – at least until the technology matures. However, this is far from the truth. Starting from the first unit, the regulator will hold these systems up to the same stringent standards as regular nuclear power plants. These standards include ensuring that no super-criticality accident can occur by design (i.e., the reactor cannot explode), providing multiple redundant barriers to contain the radioactive products even under worst-case accidents – these include a direct impact from a commercial airliner – and continuously monitoring the site to ensure that no radiation leaks go undetected. Moreover, several features improve the safety of microreactors beyond the already impressive safety of traditional nuclear power plants. For one, passive cooling is easier to achieve for microreactors due to their small size, making accident scenarios far less consequential. Second, most microreactors use a novel fuel type – TRISO fuel – which encapsulates the fuel in extremely durable ceramic microspheres, preventing fuel meltdown even under extreme conditions. Thus, even in worst-case scenarios, there will be no evacuation of Cambridge. Furthermore, people hoping to steal uranium to make a nuclear weapon will have to look elsewhere, as the fuel's enrichment is too low to be considered weapons-usable, the TRISO fuel makes it next to impossible to retrieve uranium from it, and the spent fuel (waste) is not stored on-site. Model Like all nuclear power plants, microreactors ideally run at full capacity, although they can load following. For commercial viability, we assume the reactor is run at full capacity and excess electricity is sold to the grid, like a photovoltaic system. However, unexpected outages will occur, as microreactors are a novel technology. After all, it took two decades for the traditional nuclear
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MjA2MzQ5MA==