46 power plants to achieve their current reliability record with > 90% capacity factors. So, the model forces outages randomly such that the average yearly production matches the specified capacity factors. Besides the capacity factor, the installation and operational costs are specified. The installation cost covers the full cost of installation including, e.g., site work, or licensing and permitting costs. Similarly, the operational cost includes the full operational cost including the personnel cost, fuel cost, fixed operational costs, waste disposal, and the cost of refueling and maintenance. The commercial timeline is kept the same for all cases, i.e., commercialization in 2035 with a tenyear ramp-up to full market volume. The 2030 commercialization timeline is consistent with Westinghouse’s estimates for the eVinci reactor deployment. The market volumes between each scenario, as well as the learning rates, drive the capital cost decrease over time. They are chosen to be mutually reinforcing between scenarios – i.e., the lowest market volume with lowest learning rates – to capture the strong nonlinearity and full range of possibilities. This results in the large differences in installation costs seen between the scenarios. Regulatory efficiencies are implicitly taken into account in the guard and operator requirements, where the “small industry” scenario has static requirements, and the “medium industry” and “large industry” scenarios allow for less staffing over time. The difference in staffing requirements is the main driver for changes in operational cost between the scenarios. Importantly, there is a difference between the staffing requirements of a first reactor and any subsequent reactor because the staffing is partly site-bound – especially guards. So, operational cost associated with newly added reactors (labeled N+1) is significantly lower. Although the reactor module itself is small (roughly 8x4x4 m), it requires supporting infrastructure around it, including turbine and I&C modules, an enclosure structure, and a security perimeter. Westinghouse's current eVinci site proposals span approximately 1.5 acres. The exact requirements for site clearance and dimensions are unresolved. They will depend on future regulations, but based on the eVinci site size, the undeveloped lots between Albany and Vassar Street seem like viable sites for the eVinci reactor. Even though three potential sites for the microreactor deployment were identified, we assume that MIT will only use one of them. Stacking multiple units on the same site might be allowable by the regulator. Thus, the maximum number of reactors differs between scenarios In the most optimistic scenario, space constraints will match those currently reflected in eVinci’s models, which allows up to six microreactor lots per site. Given that one spare lot will need to be available due to refueling logistics, we have 5 lots at most in the ”large industry” case. In a more conservative scenario, the microreactor lots will need to be accessible from both sides of the identified site boundaries, which leaves us with one row of three reactors and a maximum of two considering the spare lot (“medium industry”). Finally, in the most conservative case (“small industry”), we chose only one reactor possible if MIT is willing to only pilot the microreactor technology but not commit to it at scale.
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