Paulo Goncalves


Associate Professor

University of Lugano, Lugano, Switzerland


Research Affiliate

MIT Sloan School of Management, Cambridge, USA



I am an associate professor at the Institute of Management at the University of Lugano and a research affiliate in the System Dynamics Group at the MIT Sloan School of Management. I am also the academic director of the Master in Advanced Studies in Humanitarian Logistics and Management (MASHLM), a part time master program intended for professionals in the humanitarian sector.

I am interested in managerial decision making in traditional operational settings. Previous work investigates the operational and strategic consequences of managerial decisions made during supply shortages. To explore the amount and impact of retailersí order inflation when they compete for scarce supply, I used a number of quantitative research methods such as empirical, experimental and modeling approaches. Current research includes the development of experiments for understanding and de-biasing managerial decision making in logistic systems. My research is both applied, working with decision makers in diverse contexts, and cross-disciplinary, drawing from literatures in operations management, marketing, and judgment decision theory, combining a number of modeling techniques such as simulation, optimization, econometrics and nonlinear dynamics.

I grew up in Brazil and lived there until 1995. I did my undergraduate studies in Mechanical Engineering at the Instituto Tecnologico de Aeronautica, ITA and a master of science at the Universidade de Sao Paulo, USP. I also have a master degree from the Technology Policy Program (TPP) from MIT and hold a PhD in Management Science  (with a concentration in System Dynamics) from the MIT Sloan School of Management.




NEW ∙ 2010. Balancing Provision of Relief and Recovery with Capacity Building in Humanitarian Operations. Forthcoming Operations Management Research.

††††††††††††††† Revised and previously titled 2008. System Dynamics Modeling of Humanitarian Relief Operations.

∙ 2010. Construction by Replacement: A New Approach in Simulation Modeling. Forthcoming System Dynamics Review. (with J. Hines, T. Malone, G. Herman, J. Quimby, M. Murphy-Hoye, J. Rice, J. Patten, H. Iishi). 2009. Updated replacement hierarchy (hierarchy.pdf)

∙ 2010. Bodies of Knowledge for Behavioral Operations Management. Production and Operations Management.19(4) 434-452. (with E. Bendolly, R. Croson, and K. Schultz).

∙ 2009. Behavior Modes, Pathways and Overall Trajectories: Eigenvalue and Eigenvector Analysis of Dynamic Systems. System Dynamics Review. 25(1) 35-62.

2007. The Art of Managing New Product Transitions. MIT Sloan Management Review. 48(3) 73-80. (with Feryal Erhun and Jay Hopman).

∙ 2006. The Impact of Customer Response on Inventory and Utilization Policies. Journal of Business Logistics. 27(2) 103-128.

∙ 2005. The Impact of Endogenous Demand on Push-Pull Production Systems. System Dynamics Review. 21 187-216.(with Jim Hines and John Sterman) - Supplemental material.

∙ 2001. Past the Tipping Point: The Persistence of Firefighting in Product Development. California Management Review. 43 (4) 64-88. Summer. (with Nelson Repenning and Laura Black).

2002. Reprinted as Repenning, N., P. Goncalves, and L. Black. "Past the Tipping Point: The Persistence of Fire Fighting in Product Development." IEEE Engineering Management Review, 30 (4) 29-41.


Working papers:


∙ 2010. Optimizing WFPís Food Aid Distribution. Under preparation (Bervery Chawaguta).

∙ 2007. Dealer Hoarding, Sales Push and Seed Returns: Characterizing the Interdependency between Dealer Incentives and Salesforce Management. Under second round of reviews at Production and Operations Management.

∙ 2007. Behavioral Causes of the Bullwhip Effect: Satisficing Policies with Limited Information Cues. Under revision for resubmission to Journal of Operations Management. (with R. Oliva).

∙ 2007. To Whom, When and How Much to Discount? A Constrained Optimization of Customized Temporal Discounts. Under review. (J. Johnson, G. Tellis, E. Ip).



Other Publications:


NEW ∙ 2009. Humanitarian Logistics 2009 POMS Chronicle 16 (2).

∙ 2009. Heuristics, biases and wrong lessons learned in humanitarian operations 2009 International Aid & Trade Review 15.

∙ 2005. Demand Bubbles and Phantom Orders in Supply Chains in TSL Dissertation Abstracts 2004 Transportation Science and Logistics Section Dissertation Prize Competition Transportation Science. 39 (3): 429 - 440.

∙ 2003. Demand Bubbles and Phantom Orders in Supply Chains. Unpublished Dissertation Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA. (Received doctoral dissertation award 2004 Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals - CSCMP.) MIT MLOG news for CLM award

∙ 2002. Supply Chain Management: Our Future, Our Opportunity, Our Responsibility. Awarded academic scholarship Council of Logistics Management New England Roundtable.