Research Links.
December 10, 2002 So, we can up with a great cattle project (one audience member described it as "genius"). Here is the report that Joey, Tanzeer and I wrote in it's entirety. I hope you enjoy it! You can also find it on the final class web page at: http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2006/final/
Experiment: An International Solution for Sustainable Ranching (ISSR) Group members: Elizabeth Zellner, Tanzeer Khan, Josef Miler
2. Thesis: 3. Background: Cattle ranching is already a very important industry in Brazil and is
becoming even more vital to the Brazilian economy. The Brazilian commercial
cattle herd is the largest in the world. Beef and milk are the top two
livestock products in Brazil and exports of Brazilian beef grew to $1
billion (USD) in 2001. By 2003, Brazilian beef output is expected to reach
7.4 million tons, with exports of 925,000 tons. One problem in Brazilian
beef exporting has been the existence of foot and mouth disease in some
Brazilian states. This has caused the United States to be very stringent
with Brazilian beef imports. However, the United States and Europe are
still major consumers of Brazilian beef. For every 1/4 lb hamburger consumed
in the US from rainforest beef, about 55 square feet of rainforest was
cleared. Although many fast food chains claim not to use rainforest beef,
this claim is simply not valid. The USDA doesn't have an adequate system
of labeling where beef is from. Thus beef grown in the rainforest can
pass through a processing plant in the US and still be labeled as domestic
meat. With the outbreak of many bovine diseases worldwide, Brazil has
been able to conquer some new markets and continues to expand its thriving
cattle industry. It produces the second largest amount of beef in the
world after the United States. Unfortunately, this has disastrous effects
on the rainforest. Cattle ranching depletes the land of nutrients because
cattle often eat to the very dirt, destroying all biomass on a piece of
land and making it very hard for the habitat to restore itself. Slash
and burning is also often employed to clear land for cattle to graze.
Thus cattle ranching is very destructive of land and is not very sustainable.
At present, Brazil produces about 6.14 million tons carcass weight of beef and veal per year, and export around 7% of the world's total beef export (ABARE, USDA 2000). The most important motivation for ranching is the huge fast-food industry that has grown in developed countries, like McDonald's, whose demand for beef is at the rate of over tens of thousands of tons per day (ABARE, USDA 2000). Added to this lucrative trading is the fact that there were government subsidies and tax incentives for ranchers, and this allowed the rich landowners and companies to monopolize the ranching industry. The standing Brazilian law is that landowners must preserve 80% of their land, but this is a law that is very hard to enforce and with 300 inspectors for 5 million acres of land, cannot really be investigated fully. Therefore, our plan calls for outside interests like non-profit environmental organizations to assist in the implementation of a more stringent and diverse set of rules and regulations for ranchers to follow. And unlike the present law, whose violation will result in a fine, violation of our proposed plan would directly affect their production by essentially banning them from the international market. The plan that we are proposing is based somewhat loosely on the dolphin-safe tuna labeling plan of the early 90's (Mitchell, Lorraine (Economic Research Service, 2000) Dolphin-Safe Tuna Labeling). After consumers were informed of killing of dolphins as a by-product of tuna fishing, a movement started to change this practice, and after some debate the US Congress passed a law allowing only the sale of "dolphin-safe" tuna in the country, and proposed a set of standards to define "dolphin-safe". As the specifics of the standards do not pertain to the case at hand, we shall leave it unlisted, but it can be read in the previously mentioned source. Our plan is similar to this, by sealing beef exports from the Amazon region as "tree-safe" or "rainforest-safe" according to standards that we consider safe practices, which will be outlined in the next section. A major concern is how to achieve consumer awareness which is a crucial requirement. In this regard, our job is pretty much cut out considering the fact that global warming is a household concept at present. While some people may not really know what it is, it's common knowledge that global warming is a disastrous consequence of cutting down of trees, i.e. deforestation. In addition to this, people are generally willing to buy products which just sound better over an average product, like "premium quality" beef versus beef. So, all we have to do is carry out a major advertising campaign to inform the public the connection between Amazonian ranching and deforestation and therefore, global warming, and use the "rainforest-safe" label in an effective manner to arouse public interest. These are described in one of the later sections. There are some practices that can improve the sustainability of cattle
ranching. In a study of successful farms in North America these factors
were judged to be most important: 4. Procedure Week 1 - Week 2: Begin analysis of the beef supply and consumption of
potential American and Canadian target cities. Analysis of the target
cities will include, but may not be limited to: Week 2: Determine four (4) American and two (2) Canadian target city. Choose marketing company. Week 3 - 10: The ISSR will begin consumer awareness campaign with the
help of the marketing company, an independent marketing company researched
and chosen by ISSR leadership. The marketing company will create a marketing
strategy to raise public concern for the status of the rainforest, to
educate the public about the possibilities of global warming as a result
of deforestation, and for winning public support for "rainforest-friendly
beef". Though the marketing company may suggest unforeseen possibilities
to our current marketing strategy, the marketing will include: publicity
events (such as a "Walk for Beef"), internet advertising, special
interest group alliances, network news stories, television advertising,
and magazine advertising. Week 11: Compilation and Analysis of Market Analysis: The ISSR will determine the helpful and detrimental aspects of the consumer analysis marketing campaign. They will create abstracts and pamphlets explaining the results of the market research for Brazilian ranchers. The ISSR will continue US and Canadian consumer awareness campaign. Week 12: Funding Analysis: Based upon the market analysis, ISSR economic advisors will project necessary subsidy funds for Brazilian cattle ranchers. These estimates, though certainly more complicated, will rely heavily on how high a premium consumers are willing to pay for Brazilian "rainforest-friendly" beef. They will also rely on the projected US beef market. The ISSR will continue US and Canadian consumer awareness campaign.
Simultaneously, the ISSR Brazilian marketing team will begin targeting cattle ranchers, particularly those near or in the Amazon, to encourage their cooperation with the outlined Good-Grazing Guidelines (GGG). The Brazilian marketing team will explain the advantages of compliance and certification, primarily the potential increase in market share, to Brazilian cattle ranchers. Simultaneously, the ISSR US marketing team will begin a less intensive US marketing approach, primarily because US cattle ranchers will not be forced to alter ranching practices, in most cases. The ISSR will continue US and Canadian consumer awareness campaign. Week 24- 52: The ISSR will initiate and continue certification of "rainforest-friendly"
beef products in all US and Canadian markets. The ISSR will establish interval based market analysis of US and Canadian beef market. The market analysis team will produce data and documentation of the status of the beef market monthly, considering general beef consumption trends and the effects of the consumer awareness campaign, amongst other variables. The ISSR will monitor and analyze the changes in ranching techniques in Brazil. Soil, forest, and water indexation on cattle ranches will be carefully studied and documented. The ISSR Environmental Analysis Team will publicly release documentation of its research and analyses every two weeks. Week 52: The ISSR will release "The First Annual Report of the International Solution for Sustainable Ranching". This report, distributed in both English, French, and Portuguese, will include the analysis of expected results (outlined below), success index for the Brazilian and American ranching industries, success index for the preservation of the Amazonian rainforest, consumer support of ISSR, Brazilian public support of the ISSR, the ranching industry of Brazil support of ISSR, the ranching industry of the US support of the ISSR, unforeseen complications and variables, and projected future of ISSR. The Report should also propose and potentially establish changes in the ISSR, as the leadership determines is reasonable. Week 52-104: The ISSR will continue US and Canadian consumer awareness
campaign. The ISSR will continue interval based environmental analysis. Week 104: The ISSR will release "The Second Annual Report of the International Solution for Sustainable Ranching". The formatting of the report would be similar to the First Annual Report. Week 104-indeterminate: The ISSR will continue US and Canadian consumer awareness campaign. The ISSR will continue interval based market analysis of US and Canadian beef market with significantly longer intervals for market analysis as the leadership determines to be reasonable. The ISSR will continue interval based environmental analysis. Week 156: Expansion
ISSR plans on using the resources and networks of the beef industry and environmental groups to promote our marketing and advertising campaign. These could include a "Walk for the Rainforest", television ads, printed materials and an extensive education program. It is important that the beef industry sees these measures as an attempt to make theirs a sustainable industry and therefore will embrace these changes. Although initially some of the changes in policy (i.e. training herders to practice rotational grazing) may seem to consume a lot of resources, they will ultimately pay off in the long term. When the beef industries in Brazil see the opportunity to grasp more market share, we believe that they will accept the research that ISSR has done and will willingly promote the program's goals. We anticipate that much of our advertising funding will come from the Brazilian Association of Beef Exporters and the National Confederation for Agriculture since these organizations are already spending millions of dollars to promote their beef around the world. Although they are currently pursuing underdeveloped beef markets in smaller nations, they will gladly look to expand the US and European markets if given a chance. They are currently facing high tariffs and trade barriers because of the past existence of foot and mouth disease and countries trying to protect their own ranchers. If it's shown that Brazilian beef will not threaten US markets and both sides can benefit from ISSR, we believe that the current agencies which support the beef industry will have reason to support ISSR. The techniques described to improve the sustainability of the land should not cost too much. However, we will provide some initial money from the Mission 2006 budget to facilitate the training of personnel accustomed to rotational grazing and the purchase of some trees to plant in the pastures. If these measures cost around $1 per head and every rancher in Brazil participated, the subsidy would amount to $143 million dollars. However, we would propose a system where initially about $10 million dollars would be invested in training and if the ranchers wanted to do more, they could obtain loans from the government under low interest rates. However, those who are initially trained will have an obligation to share these techniques with others in Brazil who are interested in learning these sustainable techniques. Hopefully, the Brazilian government would also see the advantage in a sustainable system and would help subsidize some of this money. It is believed that rainforest safe beef could also possibly be sold as premium beef for a few more cents a pound which would also help the ranchers change over to sustainable techniques and would continually support further transfer to sustainable practices. 6. Testing 7. Expected Results 8. Externalities: Foot and Mouth Disease: In recent history, the Brazilian cattle ranching industry has been severely affected by the Foot and Mouth Disease, a very dangerous virus that threatens the health of both domesticated and wild cloven-hoofed animals. The virus caused approximately $300 million dollars of losses in cattle. A great deal of research is underway to eliminate this devastating virus, though none have been found. The success or failure of the Foot and Mouth Disease research may very well affect the Brazilian beef market, and perhaps even the US beef market. This, in turn, would have adverse effects on our market plan. Foreign Diplomacy: Though Brazilian foreign relations with the United States are currently favorable, uncontrollable future changes would adversely affect out plan. If Brazil, for political, economic, ideological, or any other reason, grew hostile to the United States, it is unlikely that ISSR will continue in Brazil. However, the effects of the future international politics will be undoubtedly less threatening after week fifty two (52), when ISSR will produce its First Annual Report and thus, finally establish the full legitimacy of ISSR. November October 29, 2002 I am the cattle queen. Since our class has slightly reorganized according to a "thursday" plan where we're solving smaller problems, I have joined the cattle group. Here a bit of my latest research. Right now, we're investigating a plann based on the idea of dolphin safe tuna. Essentially, we will lay down a guideline of more sustainable ranching practices involving things like rotational grazing, closely monitoring the carrying capacity of the land and constructive waste management (perhaps also human rights issues). Then, there will be some sort of agency which checks if farmers are practicing safe cattle ranching. If they are, they can put "rainforest safe" labels on their products. There will be a campaign through environmental agencies and whatnot in order to propel public support to buy rainforest safe beef. Here's some more basic research to help flesh out our plan. Of the top 14 World Cattle Inventories in 1999 Top 11 World Beef Producing Countries (99) Top 10 World Beef and Cattle Exporters NY Times March 26,2002 US Dept of Ag, Foreign Ag Services CIA World Factbook Labour Force Economic Research Service, US Dept of Ag World Trade Organization Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics I am looking into best practices for ranching for my team. We have dedided to split our sustainable program into some of the things that we believe threaten the rainforest the most. From my analysis of the maps, I believe that ranching is one of the most serious threats to a lot of the rainforest. As you can see, all the orange on this map is threatened by grazing, and orange dominates this map.
I have found that successful ranches employ a number of important factors that make them profitable and sustainable. In a study of successful farms in North America (here), these factors were judged to be most important 1) The land was stocked at a conservative rate (around 30% - 40% under carrying capacity) 2) These ranches employed low cost rotational grazing plans (One plan involved cattle being herded on horses instead of fencing in an area. The cattle were kept close together and grazed a controlled patch of land, but were moved before they ate it to the ground. Then the land was given time to recover and the keystone species were fully restored before cattle were allowed to graze on that land again) 3) Sound breeding, preventative health care, etc. Many of these farms had also diversified their operations. These ranged from being contracted out by the government and other organizations to manage the land ecologically to growing crops (either native grasses or food crops), growing other types of livestock such as horses or goats or using the land for outdoor adventure tourism. This article concluded that promoting preservation of the soild and land helps ranchers the most. He encouraged good stewardship of the land since in the long run it would ultimately be more profitable. Rainforestweb.org - For every 1/4 lb hamburger consumed in the US from rainforest beef, about 55 square feet of rainforest was cleared. Although many fast food chains claim not to use rainforest beef, this claim is simply not valid. THe USDA doesn't have an adequate system of labeling where beef is from. Thus beef grown in the rainforest can pass through a processing plant in the US and still be labeled as domestic meat. Costa Rican Ranchers Thinking Green - Some Costa Riccan Ranchers are adding tree crops to their herds. Incorporating trees can prove useful for fences, windbreaks, and woodlots. The government has been offering assistance and loans to people willing to add trees. The value of beef is smal compared to ecotourism, bananas and coffee. The government is also offering a "technological package" where a farm is evaluated and changes are recommended that could help increase the yield per area. TED Case Studies - The turn to cattle in South America (especially in Costa Rica) came in the 80s when debt and a horrible economy wracked these countries. Cattle ranching also leads to bad soil erosion. Cattle Ranching, Land Use and Deforestation - "pecuarizacao" - cattleization - shows the amount that this is a problem in South America, since they have invented a word for it. Ranching depends on the decision to ranch - based on profits. There are three kinds of ranchers 1) family ranchers whoe ranch for subsistance 2) family ranchers who ranch to sell products to markets and 3) firms with employees and a business structure who ranch on a fairly large level for markets. From my research in to cattle ranching, I propose that ranchers consider a few options to improve sustainability and profit 1) Keep cattle herds at conservative rates for the land their on - don't overburden the land and it won't burn out as quickly. 2) Rotation of land - don't let the cattle entirely destroy the land their grazing on and move them around in a controlled fashion fairly often. 3) Incorporate trees in pasture land - it doesn't have a negative effect on the cattle and could even be a tiny step back to reforestation someday. I believe these are the key ideas that could be utitilized fairly easy by farmers, even on a fairly small scale. Some sort of government support could also really help this program. There is the idea that we could move the ranchers out of the rainforest entirely, but I do not believe that this is a very practical idea. I think it would be hard to find somewhere else for them to go and it would also be extremely hard to force people to move in a non-totalitarian state. I also think that industrialized countries like the US really need to crack down on labelling beef to force fast food and other companies to admit where they buy their beef so consumers can make informed decisions about what they are buying.
October 21, 2002 Brazil Tourism Receipts in Million US $ (from the UN Statistics Division) 1980 - 1794 1990 - 1444 1999 - 3994 This shows there is now a much stronger tourism market interested in Brazil which could possibly be exploited to take some pressure off the market for raw materials coming out of the rainforest. I have been doing a lot of work with the GIS maps in order to make a realistic profile of how the land is really used in the Amazon Basin. If you haven't checked it out yet, the GIS is an amazing resource for a lot of geographical information. When I've combined these maps in the best possible way, I will update them on this site. We have been using them to determine which areas of the rainforest are most developed and most endangered. We will probably be generating a somewhat simpler and more comprehensive map in the future. The UN Habitat Best Practices Database has been a very helpful resource in finding innovative ideas that have worked to improve the environment in places around the world
October 16,2002 Money in The Rainforest - An interesting factsheet about American and industrial interaction with the rainforest. Brings up important questions of how the US and other industrialized countries affect the poorer nations in South America and how this can ultimately hurt the rainforest. Amazon Unsustainable Within A Decade? - Professore James Alcock predists the rainforest could pass the point of no return in 10 to 15 years. Saving Forest is Top Priority in Amazon - A poll shows that preserving the rainforest is the top priority for the 20 million people living in Brazil's Amazon. www.planetark.com - A fabulous resource for interesting facts about the rainforest at large as well as other environmental topics. "Predictors of Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon" - William Laurance - Journal of Biogeography, Vol 29, Iss 5-6, May/June 2002, 737. Brazil has world's highest absolute rates of forest destruction. 3 main factors - human population density, highways and dry season severity. "Developing markets for forest environmental services" - Natasha Landell-Mills - Philosophical transactions : Mathermatical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol 360 no 1797 15 Aug 2002. 4 ways to help poor use and preserve forest: 1) Design property rights and related environmental serves in ways that reflect the poor's tenure 2) Strengthen capacity for market participation (i.e. education and training) 3) Create market "support ceter" to unite buyers and sellers 4) Improve access to finance so that poor can make necessary investments. Interesting Planet Ark Articles
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