Economic Impact Team - Mission 2007
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Minutes for Nov. 5, 2003

Team Meeting 11/5/03

Present: all

Model: What figures/quantities we need to compute the costs and benefits for oil corporations and society (see 11/4/03 minutes)…

Oil Corporations:

1. Exploration:

            -trend for world oil market

            -seismic testing

            -size of area

2. Transportation:

            -cost of pipeline (materials)

            -cost of maintaining pipeline

            -roads (materials)

            -shipping costs

3. Production:

            -how many wells

            -depth of well

            -type of well

            -type of machinery

            -amount of (extractable) oil in the well

            -replacement due to wear and tear

4. Wages:

            -no. of jobs

            -wage rate for each type of worker

            -#hours/ week

            -import of workers ?

5. Oil Spill Clean-up:

            -how frequently

            -cost of cleaning:

-how many people

-how bad the spill (area)

6. Building infrastructure: (more of a cost to society ?)

            -hospitals

            -schools

            -houses

            -supplies- import

            -entertainment, building a “city”

7. Refining

            -how much oil

            -cost of transporting it to refineries

8. Revenue from Oil:

            -how much oil is extracted

            -current price:

-trend

-probability of conflicts/disruptions globally

            -time lag (7-8 years)

            -demand curve and supply curve: equilibrium price

 

Society:

1. Environmental:

            -no. and type of wildlife affected

            -degree to which they are affected

            -pollution

2. Risk of Oil spills:

            -how often

            -clean-up costs

            -cost of damage (impact of what is left- pollution)

3. Disruption to culture:

            -% of people who’s lives are altered

            -value for degree of alteration

4. Jobs:

            -no. of jobs

            -wage rate

            -who gets the jobs: unemployed or move from another job?

5. Access to Infrastructure:

            -price decrease in gas due to easier transportation to the area

            -greater access to goods due to easier transportation to the area

-increase in no. of schools, hospitals, etc. (inc. in no. of people educated, decrease in teacher:student ratio)

 

Notes:

-spoke to team 4: will give us a relative ranking of environmental impact .. no numbers

-look up papers on what happened in Pudhoe Bay (estimates)

 


 

Team Meeting with Alumni Mentors (11/5/03):

 

-Is oil profitable in ANWR? Look up do big corporations want to drill or is it only small Canadian companies (team 8)

-environmental cost= cost of replacement (team 4)

            -one way, not best, but we don’t have a best

-cost of dismantling the oil production equipment- do we need additional equipment to dismantle? (team e)

-explain assumptions

-disruption to culture (ask team 10)

-email teams saying what we are going to need from them for model

            -ask teams for sources

-team 4 will be very, very general email for specifics

-for environmental impact:

-ask an environmental economist on faculty

-EPA, environmental agencies

-ask teams 5 and 6 for which animals/wildlife affected

-use ‘currency’ – per capita/ per caribou

-simplify the research and state what we considered and what we deemed was of too little and impact to include

-assumption:

-price of oil set by supply and demand: ANWR not much of an impact on supply (esp. over 20 year time period) therefore no decrease in price

-no alternative sources of fuel considered: corporations have no positive impact on alternactive fuel research

            -no political impact 

-look at stuff that matters largely, not small things

-factors involved in drilling:

            -environmental (team 4, 5, 6)

            -sociological

                        -no. of jobs (team 10, 8, e)

                        -culture (team 10)

            -oil revenue: net

                        -quantity (team 1)

                        -mgf. costs (team e)

                        -price of oil (team 8)

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Last updated: November 10, 2003 Email Team 8: m2007-8@mit.edu