Home Objectives Research Value of Oil Conclusions Progress Log Team Members Mission 2007 - Course Site	Research Focused Question: What is the monetary value of oil in ANWR? (Oct. 15, 2003) NOTE (Dec 1, 2003): The analysis below uses information that we roughly came up with for the amount of oil extractable from ANWR.  A revised estimate was produced with information from Team 1 and this can be found on our team report, or on the final website under Costs and Benefits.  Jaime's estimation: In following the goals of the team, both in Team 8 and in Mission 2007, I took on the task of determining the financial value of the oil in ANWR.  This figure is simply the number of barrels that can be extracted from ANWR times the price of oil per barrel over the time which the oil would be on the market.  Not yet having an estimate from team 1 as to the hydrocarbon potential, I used several sources to estimate the amount of oil in ANWR, and then used several other sources in order to arrive at a reasonable estimate of the price that oil extracted from ANWR may be sold at.  Fortunately, oil prices seem to have remained about some slowly increasing average value, with occasional spikes in either direction.  This task thus became an estimating and averaging task, and here is my best estimate, along with the sources of the figures: Amount of oil extractable from ANWR: 29.4, 31.5, or 49.5 billion barrels total, out of which I approximated ¼ to be recoverable, giving 7.35, 7.88, or 12.38 billion barrels of extractable oil1 4.8 to 29.4 billion barrels, with .6 to 9.2 billion barrels of recoverable oil2 10.4 billion barrels of recoverable oil3 8.2 billion barrels of recoverable oil average amounts sources Projected price for which oil extracted from ANWR will be sold:    Pending analysis of other teams, oil will go on market in twenty to forty years from now.  Price of oil during that time (interpolated from visual data of source): $17-274 $25-305 $30-326 Average price: $26.5 Reasonable value of oil extractable from ANWR:    $217 billion  ± 15%   Sources Montgomery, Scott. "ANWR 1002 area and development: One question, many issues." Oil and Gas Journal. April 14,2003. Background - Oil in ANWR. http://www.anwr.org/backgrnd/potent.html. Artic Power. 2003. Feds Disagree on How Much Oil in ANWR. http://www.evworld.com/databases/shownews.cfm?pageid=news140302-01. ENS. 2002. Fossil Fuel History. http://envstudies.brown.edu/Thesis/2002/Dyer/Residential%20History%20OPEC.htm. 2002. Petrochemistry. http://www.petrochemistry.net/business2/raw.html. 2003. Energy Prices. http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/. Bloomberg LP. 2003.
Last updated: Dec. 1, 2003 Email Team 8: m2007-8@mit.edu