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Focused Question: What is the monetary value of oil in ANWR? (Oct. 15, 2003)

Jaime's estimation: In following the goals of the team, both in Team 8 and in Mission 2007, I took on the task of determining the financial value of the oil in ANWR.  This figure is simply the number of barrels that can be extracted from ANWR times the price of oil per barrel over the time which the oil would be on the market.  Not yet having an estimate from team 1 as to the hydrocarbon potential, I used several sources to estimate the amount of oil in ANWR, and then used several other sources in order to arrive at a reasonable estimate of the price that oil extracted from ANWR may be sold at.  Fortunately, oil prices seem to have remained about some slowly increasing average value, with occasional spikes in either direction.  This task thus became an estimating and averaging task, and here is my best estimate, along with the sources of the figures:

Amount of oil extractable from ANWR:

• 29.4, 31.5, or 49.5 billion barrels total, out of which I approximated ¼ to be recoverable, giving 7.35, 7.88, or 12.38 billion barrels of extractable oil¹
• 4.8 to 29.4 billion barrels, with .6 to 9.2 billion barrels of recoverable oil²
• 10.4 billion barrels of recoverable oil³
• 8.2 billion barrels of recoverable oil average amounts sources

Projected price for which oil extracted from ANWR will be sold:
   Pending analysis of other teams, oil will go on market in twenty to forty years from now.  Price of oil during that time (interpolated from visual data of source):

• $17-27⁴
• $25-30⁵
• $30-32⁶
• Average price: $26.5

Reasonable value of oil extractable from ANWR:
   $217 billion  ± 15%

Sources

1. Montgomery, Scott. "ANWR 1002 area and development: One question, many issues." Oil and Gas Journal. April 14,2003.
2. Background - Oil in ANWR. http://www.anwr.org/backgrnd/potent.html. Artic Power. 2003.
3. Feds Disagree on How Much Oil in ANWR. http://www.evworld.com/databases/shownews.cfm?pageid=news140302-01. ENS. 2002.
4. Fossil Fuel History. http://envstudies.brown.edu/Thesis/2002/Dyer/Residential%20History%20OPEC.htm. 2002.
5. Petrochemistry. http://www.petrochemistry.net/business2/raw.html. 2003.
6. Energy Prices. http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/. Bloomberg LP. 2003.