MISSION 2009 TEAM 1: Risk Assessment
Methods of Discussing Risk Assessment
Study on a Simplified Method of Risk Assessment
A group of scientists decided in 2000 that they wanted to determine an effective and simple way of assessing the risk for Japan¡¯s coastline to the impact of a tsunami. This, they believed was very important due to the infrastructure along Japan¡¯s coastline and its location of being exposed directly to the entire Pacific Ocean which is very seismically active. In order to come up with a quantitative risk assessment they designed a series of algorithms which could be solved in order to determine a numeric value of risk for a given area. They mainly wanted to determine the way that was most effective evacuate people so the citizens would have the least amount of risk of death or injury as possible. The main basis for their assessment of risk was based on the fault lines of the surrounding area.
These are the three general equations that the scientists came up with. The second and third terms in equations one and two do not apply in depths over 50 m.
t=time = change in water height
f= coefficient of friction with the ocean floor = vertical seabed displacement
g= gravity accelerator h= water depth M&N= discharge flux in x and y direction
Equation 6 is based on the linear propagation of waves
The equations are evaluated under certain parameters (P) and a range is determined in which certain areas are understood to have the wave hit sooner and with more power based on the specific coastline in the area. The areas with the highest risk will have the larges run up and the soonest impact time. The numbers obtained through these calculations were used to inform the public within the studied areas in Japan the situation in which they were living, and how they should act in case of a tsunami.
Other links:
"A Tsunami Mitigation program Within the California Earthquake Loss Reduction Plan"
"Short Term Inundation Forecasting of Tsunamis"
Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific : Master Plan. by UNESCO
SOURCES:
Sato, Hiroaki, Hitoshi Murakami, Yasunori Kozuki, and Naoaki Yamamoto. "Study on a Simplified Method of Tsunami Risk Assessment." Natural Hazards (2003): 325-340.
CD: Submarine landslides and tsunamis NATO science series Kluwer Academic Publishers
Yalciner, Ahmet C., Efim N. Pelinovsky, Emile Okal, and Costas E. Synolakis. Submarine Landslides and Tsunamis. Boston: Kluwer Academic, 2003.