Tsunami10 is developing a projection of the cost of both the tsunami warning network and the cost of recovery in multiple ways. For the warning network/recovery, we are asking the teams to give an estimate of the cost of their portion of the system. Currents estimates from teams are:
Tsunami10 has determined that finding pledges of money for both construction, preventative relief, and responsive relief would at best be the opinion of the team. Instead of this, the team decided to develop percentages for each system. These percentages give roughly the amount the team expects would come from various funding sources and take into account the current political situation in the world along with the situation of Peru and Micronesia.
Tsunami10 has also determined that the withholding of promised funds may become an issue.1 Our current plan is to refer any incidents to the World Court.2 While this would give a country further reason to provide funds, a World Court order can still be disobeyed. Neither Peru nor Micronesia has the military strength or political might to force a country to pay. The only way to attempt to recover funds is to use the media to spin the offending country in a negative light, much the way the United States was when it initially did not provide enough relief to the Indian Ocean Tsunami. Tsunami10 hopes that it will act in a similar manner to recover pledges.
Peru and Micronesia
Tsunami10 examined the budgets of both Peru and Micronesia and decided that it was not feasible for either nation to contribute to build the system. Costs for the system may easily exceed a 750 million dollars. Peru, while it would have the money to pay for the system, would require that almost 12.5% of is revenue go to the endeavor.3 Micronesia is in no better condition; its total budget doesn't come to that amount.4
Because of this, tsunami10 decided on the following percentages:
Other World Governments
Other World Governments
The majority of non-governmental funding we expect to come in the form of relief supplies and expertise during the construction and start of operation of the system. We felt that the the US was going to have a strong part in the development of both systems, more so in Micronesia due to the closeness of their relationship. US support would be given through both grants and loans to both nations.
In either of these cases, the entire Pacific system would be revamped, meaning that the majority of nations on the Pacific Ocean would participate. Again, Peru and Micronesia will pay little for their new systems. For both instances we would expect the funding to be distributed along the following:
Other World Governments
The United States is still a key contributor to the project, but other nations would become more involved (e.g. China, Japan, Russia). We believe that this will keep the US contribution relatively low. This will be direct US funds to the project. Non-governmental support is a smaller percentage than an independent system because the governments will likely play a larger role and keep NGO influence to primarily universities.
In the event of the tsunami hitting either Peru or Micronesia, tsunami 10 expects an event similar to that of the Indian Ocean tsunami.5 Most likely any event affecting one nation will also affect others nearby, thereby creating an international incident or at the very least the contribution of international funds. However, there would be a lag time in the mobilization of international resources; this is where the supply depots would be the holdover until further support can arrive. Once supplies arrive, we anticipate that they will be approximately like the most recent event, allowing for the change in regional concentration of funds:6
Total in millions of US dollars
Percentage of Total
( of 10 billion dollars)
Non-governmental organizations (NGO's) also played a large part in the reconstruction of the Indian Ocean tsunami.7 Tsunami 10 believes the NGO's would have a similar role in the event of another tsunami. Numerous organizations helped in the recovery effort and the long term cleanup. The best known of these is the Red Cross. Many religious groups also had a presence in the area along with UN programs. While clearly capable of providing assistance, many NGO's take time to organize, meaning that the initial aid would come from larger NGO's and other world governments.
In the event of a tsunami, the majority of pledges will come during a short period of time. However, recovery would most likely be taken over an extended period of time. This is why in all of the coordination possibilities the organization in charge would do as the UN did in creating an estimate of the overall cost of rebuilding the affected area.8 This would allow other nations to see the overall cost of the rebuilding. It also allows the nations to budget the initial aid they get to go toward the long term projects. In an international system, the international relief agency that would be set up would also advocate for long term relief for tsunami hit areas.
Once the new system has been established, funds are going to be needed to continue the warning system. Currently the Pacific system is maintained almost entirely by the United States, with the exception of the Japanese system.9 When the new system is implemented, tsunami 10 expects the funding to parallel the initial funding for the system. For either of the international systems, it would be the responsibility of the director to submit a budget, including the sources of income, to the yearly conference. In the independent systems, both Micronesia and Peru would need to either support the systems themselves in the long term or find international partners for the systems.
Tsunami 10 believes that participation in independent systems would be the most difficult to develop. The nations which are contributing the funds do not receive much in return; neither nation would be able to carry much political weight or have much to offer in the way of economic gain. This is why tsunami 10 recommends an international system. Members of the PWTC would mostly likely join the new organization due to the greater influence they would have in the system. The United States, even though it would have a net loss of power, would shift some of the monitory responsibilities to other nations which would also be in its best interests.