2/29 The Evolution of Markets and Patterns of Technology
Changes
Foster, S. 1986. "The S-curve: A new forecasting tooal." Chapter 4 in Innovation:
The Attacker's Advantage. New York: Summit Books.
EMI & CT Scanner (HBS #9-383-194)
Rogers, E. 1983. "Innovativeness and
adopter categories." Chapter 7 in Diffusion of Innovations, 3rd Edition, New
York: The Free Press, 241-270.
- What determines the limits of an S-curve? How would you determine what to map on the
vertical axis of an S curve?
- Can you draw the S curve(s) for an industry with which you are familiar?
- What is the relationship between Foster"s "S-curve" and Abernathy and
Utterback"s transition from "radical" to "incremental"
innovation? What is a dominant design?
- Both Foster and Abernathy and Utterback suggest that the nature of competition and of
firm competence will change over the life cycle of a technology. Are their predictions
different? Why or why not?
- Why do most technologies not diffuse instantaneously? Make a list of all of the factors
that can determine the rate at which a technology diffuses.
- Which of these factors was most important in shaping the diffusion of a technology with
which you are familiar?
- What would diffusion look like in a market populated by identical buyers?
- What would diffusion look like if the technology changed as it diffused
- Where is the technology headed? Why?
- Forecast the future demand for the CT scanner.
- What will drive diffusion?
- Why was the scanner initially so profitable?
- Is this likely to continue?
- What strategy would you recommend EMI pursue? Why?
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