January - March 2000 Issue
Energy Challenges and
Opportunities in the 21st Century:
Perspectives of Energy Laboratory Researchers
Introduction
In this first issue of the year 2000, we present the perspectives of several
Energy Laboratory researchers on key directions for future research in
their areas of interest. Specifically, we asked them: "What do you think
are the most important and exciting issues, challenges, and forthcoming
technologies in your research area for the next 20 years? What research
should be undertaken to meet those challenges and to take advantage of
opportunities?" We instructed them not to constrain their responses based
on the Energy Laboratory's current activities or capabilities. The titles
of their pieces appear below. The first piece describes major worldwide
trends that will affect how we make and use energy in the future. The final
piece addresses issues relating to energy education for the 21st century.
[Back to Table of Contents]
Setting the Stage for a Sustainable Energy Future
Jefferson W. Tester
Energy resources and the services they provide have long been critical to the
world's social, economic, and environmental well-being. As shown in the
figure below, we use energy to stay comfortable indoors, to move people
and things, to perform industrial processes, and to support essential agricultural
activities. During the next 100 years, our need for such services will
remain; but the methods we use to provide energy for them will likely change
dramatically as we move toward a more sustainable energy system.
|
Energy Services
 Buildings
- Heating, cooling, and comfort
- Lighting and appliances
- Pumps, fans, and motors
- Commercial and residential
Transportation
- Road, rail, air, and ship
- People, freight, and post
Industry
- Chemicals and primary metals
- Construction
- Food processing
- Pulp and paper
Agriculture
- Irrigation and treatment
- Tillage and harvesting
- Fertilizer
|
Energy Supply and
Delivery Options
Fuels
- Fossil, nuclear, and biomass
- Extraction and refinement
- Transportation and storage
Electricity
- Fossil (coal, oil, methane)
- Renewable (hydro, wind,
solar, geothermal, biomass)
- Nuclear
Heat/Thermal Energy
- Process use
- District heating
|
Impacts
Climate Change
- Regional rainfall and
temperature changes
- Disruptions, severe storms
- Endangered ecosystems
- Sea level rise
Air Quality
- Local
- Regional
Terrestrial Impacts
- Land use
- Water use and quality
- Solid waste/extraction
Health Impacts
- Morbidity and mortality
- Acute and long-term
Economic Effects
- Cost and cost-effectiveness
- Equity issues
- Balancing short- and
long-term
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|
Despite the many energy-supply options available (listed above), we have come
to depend more and more on one type: fossil fuels. Fossil fuels offer convenience,
high performance, relatively low cost, and abundant supplies. As a result,
more than 85% of the world's primary energy is now provided by coal, oil,
and natural gas. Indeed, the 20th century might well be labeled the "age
of hydrocarbons."
However, there is growing concern about the impacts of fossil fuel use. Burning
fossil fuels generates emissions--particulates, sulfur oxides, nitrogen
oxides, and hydrocarbons--that endanger our environment and may potentially
harm our health. It also emits carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases
that may cause long-term, potentially irreversible changes to our global
climate. As we enter the 21st century, we must make major changes in our
energy-supply and energy-use habits. We must shift to an "age of carbon
management" based on energy habits that are sustainable over the long term.
Predicting the future with any certainty is nearly impossible. However, we can identify
some "megatrends" that will influence the appropriateness and feasibility
of energy systems in the century ahead.
-
Global
demand for energy will grow substantially--at a rate exceeding the rate
of population growth. As economies of developing countries mature, more
energy will be needed for growing mega-cities as well as for rural and
agricultural regions.
-
There
will be increasing electrification in both developed and developing countries.
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A
wide range of local, regional, and global environmental and health concerns
will continue to motivate most energy policy actions and technological
advances.
-
Technologies
for finding and extracting all forms of fossil fuels will evolve and improve.
As a result, coal, liquid petroleum, and natural gas supplies will continue
to be abundant and affordable commodities in world markets.
-
Climate
change concerns will spur the development of alternative energy technologies
based on solar, wind, and geothermal energy; hydropower; biomass-based
fuels; and nuclear power.
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High
priority will be placed on developing ways to reduce or to capture and
sequester greenhouse gas emissions from fossil-fuel-using technologies.
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Global
geopolitical forces combined with national concerns about energy security
and balance-of-trade issues will continue to influence energy policies.
Meeting environmental objectives on all scales will be balanced against
other social and economic goals.
-
The
transformation of energy industries from monopolies to disaggregated markets
will continue. These restructured industries for the supply and distribution
of electricity and fossil fuels will grow increasingly competitive. The
oil and gas industries will become more consolidated.
-
Policymakers,
technology-developers, and society in general will benefit from an increased
awareness and understanding of the links among energy, the environment,
and economic performance.
Inevitably, these trends will evolve, as the energy-environmental arena is highly dynamic.
New issues will no doubt arise, and some of those mentioned here may lose
their importance. However, this list serves as a useful framework when
we consider energy research needs in the coming decades.
What are those research needs? In the following articles, selected Energy Laboratory
researchers present their visions of future challenges and opportunities
in their areas of expertise. Again, making predictions is a risky business.
Nevertheless, these researchers have agreed to take that risk, drawing
on their experience, knowledge, and intuition.
MIT faculty, staff, and students have made important contributions to the energy
technologies and policies that are in place today. Their future contributions
will no doubt help shape the technology and policy portfolio that evolves
in the 21st century. And the Energy Laboratory will continue to facilitate
energy research at MIT, helping to define and implement timely research
programs that are flexible and responsive to the changing energy R&D
landscape.
Jefferson W. Tester, director of the Energy Laboratory and H.P. Meissner Professor
of Chemical Engineering, leads research programs on energy engineering
and environmental remediation and control technologies, chemical processes
in supercritical fluids, gas hydrates, geothermal energy, and advanced
rock drilling systems.
[Back to Table of Contents]
Global Climate Change: A Formidable Research Challenge
John M. Reilly
Global climate change is one of the most important environmental issues the world
will face during the next century. Quantifying the seriousness of the climate-change
problem and determining what level and type of response would be appropriate
and effective requires consideration of science, economics, and policy.
From
the scientific perspective, the challenge is to understand how we humans
are affecting earth systems and to identify and quantify triggers that
cause change. Of most concern is the increasing concentration of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere. One question is the extent to which the behavior
of earth systems and our impacts on them are predictable. If, for example,
critical systems respond in a nonlinear fashion, climate may change gradually
for decades and then suddenly shift, profoundly disrupting ecosystems and
the world economy. Oceans and the Antarctic ice shelves could exhibit such
unpredictable behavior, and their long time scales and inertia further
complicate our ability to make predictions. Such systems may be responding
now to changes in climate that occurred many thousands of years ago.
From
the economics point of view, the challenge is to assess and evaluate the
climate-change problem, despite its inherent uncertainties and long time
scales. Analysts need to identify potential impacts, determine their likelihood,
and evaluate the consequences for society, using terms that are understandable
to business and government leaders as well as to the general public. One
difficulty is quantifying different types of impacts on the same basis.
The impact of climate change on the economy can be described in traditional
economic terms, but other potentially important changes cannot be easily
"monetized." Another problem is understanding future technology well enough
to answer key questions. For example, what will future levels of greenhouse
gas emissions be? To what extent can we reduce emissions through technological
change? And how does the economic and policy environment affect the evolution
of technology?
The
fundamental policy issue is how the world can craft a workable solution
for climate change. Negotiation must involve most nations worldwide--nations
with incredible disparities in power, geographic size, economic size, and
per-capita wealth. Other participants include nongovernmental organizations,
both business and environmental, that operate across national boundaries
without allegiance to any one nation. Complex questions must be addressed.
How do interests of nongovernmental organizations interact with the processes
and goals of governments? How can we construct successful international
policies and multinational business strategies? Finally, how do we assure
that the outcomes of these complex negotiation processes represent the
varied interests of people across the world?
Given
the range of issues involved, tackling the global climate change problem
requires an unprecedented level of cooperation among economists, policy
experts, and various earth scientists and engineers. At MIT, the Energy
Laboratory and others have established an innovative program that brings
together the needed experts from across campus and outside MIT. At the
program's intellectual center is the "Integrated Global Systems Model,"
which incorporates a model of economic development and associated emissions,
coupled models of atmospheric chemistry and climate, and models of natural
ecosystems. Deepening our knowledge of each of those systems, articulating
the connections among them, and understanding the implications of those
connections for the world's economy and for global policymaking will continue
to be a challenge well into the next century.
John M. Reilly, associate director for research of the Energy Laboratory, is
an agricultural economist who studies global systems models with particular
emphasis on the biosphere and its interaction with human activities, especially
in the agricultural and forestry sectors.
[Back to Table of Contents]
Improving Energy Infrastructures--Old and New, Supply and Demand
Stephen R. Connors
Turnover
of the capital stock we use to acquire and utilize energy resources is
often overlooked when considering the transition to a sustainable energy
future. The world's current energy infrastructure--on both the supply side
and the demand side--can be characterized as being "built too fast" rather
than "built to last." Little consideration was given to how individual
components would interact with one another and the environment during their
decades of service and as the total infrastructure evolved.
Those
of us who look at the broader consequences of energy supply and use recognize
that one of the quickest ways to clean up energy use is to get rid of less-efficient,
dirtier technologies, whether they be old trucks, buses, and cars in Mexico
City, antiquated coal-fired industries in China, or "grandfathered" fossil-fuel-burning
power plants in the United States. In each case, newer, cleaner, and more
efficient technologies can supply the same services better and with radically
smaller environmental footprints. In less-industrialized countries, the
rush for development provides both an opportunity and a threat to people's
future livelihood and environmental security. Failure to deploy superior
technologies is likely to hobble their future economic development, as
population and land-use stresses combine with burdensome energy uses to
reduce overall productivity and well-being. Industrialized nations need
to find ways to turn over their substantial but more modestly growing energy
infrastructures so that they too can adopt superior technologies.
Debates
over the world's future energy options should beware of the "supply-side
bias." We need coordinated turnover of both how we supply energy and how
we use it in our houses, offices, factories, and transportation systems.
Accomplishing that turnover will require government, financial, and industrial
sector actions that foster the development, deployment, and use of environmentally
responsible technologies. And new institutional structures must promote
"finesse" instead of "brute force" practices.
In
May 1997, John Browne, CEO of British Petroleum (now BP Amoco), stated
in describing BP's then-new strategy with respect to climate change, "What
gets measured, gets managed." Basic physics tells us that there are limits
to energy efficiency. There is no such thing as a 100%-efficient generator
or automobile engine. "What gets measured, gets managed" speaks to the
convergence of efficient design and modern management practices, including
those promoted by the implementation of such new concepts as competition
in the electric sector. Better tracking of energy losses in the transmission
and distribution of electricity can promote investment in modern high-voltage
transmission equipment, increased distributed generation (including cogeneration),
and price-responsive electric loads. Inherent in those changes is the synergistic
application of energy efficiency and operational efficiency. The house
that knows you're not home; the office light that knows the sun is shining
in the window; the electric drivetrain (hybrid) automobile that knows you're
waiting at a stoplight--these existing technologies save energy by means
of operational sophistication as well as inherently more efficient design.
Numerous "smart" retrofit applications also exist. Better understanding
of the local environmental and meteorological conditions assists the introduction
of renewable generation resources and leverages investments in cleaner
technologies across local, regional, and global impacts such as ozone,
acid rain, and climate change. Understand society's energy-service needs
and potential environmental impacts. Do the life-cycle design. Make the
systems smarter. Plug the leaks. Reduce the waste. A sustainable energy
infrastructure is within reach in this century.
Stephen R. Connors, director of the Analysis Group for Regional Electricity Alternatives
(AGREA) at the Energy Laboratory, is using AGREA's multi-attribute trade-off
analysis approach to evaluate the comparative cost and environmental performance
of possible energy and environmental strategies in Shandong Province, China;
Mexico City, Mexico; Switzerland; and elsewhere. Mr. Connors also works
with Dr. Marija Ilic on alternative approaches in the design of competitive
power systems (see section below)
[Back to Table of Contents]
Environmental Policy: New Approaches for a New Century
A. Denny Ellerman
The
interplay of public and private interests is an issue that has engaged
philosophers and the practical-minded since at least the time of Aristotle.
In modern guise, this engagement takes the form of research; and one area
of particular interest at the start of this new century is the relationship
between public and private interests with respect to the environment.
The
last half of the 20th century has demonstrated convincingly that high-income
societies value environmental amenities such as clean air and water and
that economic activity in such societies will be regulated to protect those
amenities. During the past thirty years, significant environmental accomplishments
have been achieved through industrial regulation and government policy.
Market prices have adjusted to accommodate regulatory and policy costs.
Because
regulations and policies can be made by diverse groups with differing interests,
debate about specific objectives to pursue will no doubt continue. But
another debate is becoming more and more prominent: Is there a better way
to go about regulating economic activity to achieve environmental goals?
Recent proposals for achieving new environmental goals increasingly call
for emissions trading. One might well ask: Why do we need emissions trading?
What is wrong with the approaches that worked so well in the past?
The
short answer is that times have changed, and new approaches may permit
us to do even better. Specifically, two things have changed. First, the
late 20th century has not been kind to those who believed in the ability
of men and women of intelligence and good will to act through government
to improve the lot of all. Surprisingly (at least for those believers),
the failures of governmental actions have come to be seen as even greater
than those of the market. As a result, there is a marked predisposition
to rely less on government and more on markets where feasible.
That
qualification--"where feasible"--leads to the second factor that has changed.
Improvements in information technology have made decentralized solutions
more feasible and thus central control and coordination less necessary.
The combination of changing perception and changing technology has been
fatal to the old style of regulation. One area of human endeavor after
another has been restructured, and change is still occurring. Witness the
evolving electric power industry. Environmental regulation will not be
spared such transformation.
In
general, restructuring involves constructing markets where none existed
before; and constructing markets involves assigning property rights and
setting up rules for exchanging and enforcing those rights. Emissions trading
presumes such markets, with the concomitant rights and rules. As in all
cases, the basic question will be whether the rights and rules by which
the market is created will lead to the desired outcome.
The
first major test of this approach involved establishing a market for trading
sulfur dioxide (SO2)
emissions within the United States. That experience has clearly demonstrated
that such a market can be constructed with good environmental and economic
results. Now interest is developing in the use of global carbon-dioxide
emissions trading as a means of controlling greenhouse gas emissions. Developing
rights and rules for such a global market will prove especially challenging
because of the involvement of complex international trade and equity issues
and the need to establish new metrics.
It
is already evident that markets for various environmental goods will differ,
just as markets for regular goods do. Although all may have emissions trading
in common, the specific characteristics of each market will be determined
by the motivating environmental problem, the available technology, and
the institutions in place. The interplay among those three factors will
motivate our research agenda for the first decades of the 21st century--an
agenda that will inevitably engage both philosophers and the practical-minded.
A. Denny Ellerman, executive director of the Center for Energy and Environmental
Policy Research, is an energy economist with special interest in the coal
industry, energy and emissions trading, and environmental policy. His current
interests focus on the US SO2
emissions-trading program, productivity improvements in the US coal industry,
and the economic aspects of global warming.
[Back to Table of Contents]
Better Buildings: Critical Needs and Enormous Potential
Leon R. Glicksman
Finding
ways to improve existing and new buildings should be a top research priority
in the 21st century. Today's buildings consume more than a third of the
total energy and half of the total electricity used in the United States.
Moreover, they are increasingly beset by indoor air quality problems. Cost-effective
and practical measures already exist that could address those problems,
but few of them are carried out. Improving our buildings will thus require
economic and policy studies as well as technological advances.
Development
and demonstration of several technologies could lead to more sustainable
performance of buildings. Information technology can be used to monitor
and control buildings and appliances for optimal performance. Energy Laboratory
researchers have demonstrated this approach in several large buildings
at MIT, where they used advanced controls to halve fan energy consumption
while maintaining existing ventilation and comfort standards. Advanced
fault-detection systems can monitor building performance from a remote
location and identify poorly performing or damaged components. In properly
designed buildings, natural ventilation can provide comfortable conditions
throughout much of the summer, making mechanical air conditioners unnecessary.
And advanced designs for building exteriors will allow control of solar
energy and insulation levels in both summer and winter.
Air
quality inside buildings is a serious concern. In the United States, people
typically spend 90% of their time indoors; and the incidence of "sick"
buildings is increasing. The first step in dealing with indoor air quality
problems is to determine pollutant emissions from building materials and
equipment over their lifetime. The next step is to couple that information
with simulations of ventilation system operation that can predict pollutant
concentrations in an indoor space. Finally, advances in health science
are needed to relate pollutant concentrations to health effects. With sufficient
understanding, advanced techniques such as displacement ventilation can
substantially reduce health hazards while providing a comfortable environment.
The
need for better building technologies is made more critical by economic
and social changes going on in developing countries--changes that could
substantially increase energy consumption and pollution in coming decades.
Many developing countries are undertaking massive programs of residential
and commercial building. In China, for example, the average living space
per person is increasing dramatically; and consumers are demanding more
comfortable living conditions. Such countries need energy-efficient building
designs and technologies that can be implemented using local manpower and
materials and that are responsive to the desires of the local population.
A major challenge is to educate developers, architects, and engineers in
good sustainable practices and to provide proper incentives for their use.
Regardless
of location, establishing incentives is key to getting energy-efficient
measures adopted in the building sector. In the United States, businesses
may begin investing in better buildings when ongoing research confirms
and quantifies an expected connection: Providing adequate ventilation,
natural lighting, and improved comfort can significantly increase worker
productivity. In new building projects, combined planning of facilities
for electricity generation and for heating and cooling can yield an optimal
balance between investing in improved end-use efficiency and investing
in energy supplies. In most cases, it costs less to invest in more sustainable
buildings than in conventional energy supply systems. From a broader perspective,
there is need for large-scale planning that integrates building design
and performance with urban planning and large-scale energy systems.
Dealing
with technological and policy challenges in the buildings area is complicated
by the fragmented nature of the industry. Concentrated efforts are difficult
to mount, and the problem is ignored at the national level due to the absence
of large-scale advocates. Despite such barriers, building technologies
and systems will remain important and fertile fields of study for the coming
decades.
Leon R. Glicksman, professor of building technology and mechanical engineering
and director of MIT's Building Technology Program, leads research on energy
use in buildings for developing countries, insulation, air circulation,
indoor air quality, and new materials and systems. He is also performing
studies of fluidized beds as a low-pollution source of energy from fossil
fuels.
[Back to Table of Contents]
Vehicles and Fuels for the Future
Malcolm A. Weiss
John B. Heywood
During the past century, access to personal transportation has come to be the
almost-universal expectation in the developed world and the almost-universal
aspiration in the developing world. We all have motor vehicles now, or
want them. There seems little prospect that vehicle ownership will become
less important to individuals in the foreseeable future. Therefore, there
will be increasing numbers of vehicles on the roads with increasing potential
for problems. Advances in fuel and vehicle technology can ease some of
those problems, notably various environmental insults. Other problems,
such as congestion and land use, will need other solutions.
The
Energy Laboratory's long-term research on vehicle and fuel technologies
should have the objective of reducing greenhouse gas and other emissions
while maintaining or enhancing the other attributes of vehicles desirable
to customers such as economy, performance, capacity, convenience, safety,
and reliability--no easy task. Some challenging but potentially fruitful
long-term research objectives include:
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reduction
of vehicle weight through development of low-cost methods to manufacture
and to recycle fiber-reinforced lightweight composite materials;
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development
of new storage batteries with cost and performance characteristics sufficient
to make general-purpose electric cars feasible;
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improved
storage of hydrogen in fuel-cell vehicles to increase range and offer more
flexibility and safety than do current high-pressure gas-storage systems;
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identification
of new approaches to converting natural gas to liquids with higher energy
efficiencies, thus making clean-burning fuels available with lower greenhouse
gas emissions;
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determination
of the well-to-wheels health and environmental trade-offs between reducing
greenhouse gas emissions and reducing further other contaminants that are
already at low levels.
As
the table above shows, new passenger cars entering the US fleet (light
trucks and sport utility vehicles are excluded) have shown large improvements
in fuel economy and emissions compared to the fleet in the late 1960s,
before Federal controls were first imposed. The predictions for 2010 and
2020 represent further advances that we think can be reasonably achieved
with new technologies in the future but at higher costs than at present.
Malcolm A. Weiss, a senior research staff member in the Energy Laboratory, leads
research on major issues of energy and the environment, including energy
use and global climate change, environmental impacts of transportation,
and nuclear and hazardous waste management. John B. Heywood, Sun Jae Professor
of Mechanical Engineering and director of MIT's Sloan Automotive Laboratory,
conducts research on internal combustion engine processes to improve efficiency
and emissions and develop new engine concepts. Dr. Weiss and Professor
Heywood are now collaborating on an assessment of future road transportation
options in a greenhouse-gas-constrained world.
[Back to Table of Contents]
Information Technology for the New Competitive Electric Industry
Marija Ilic
Electric
power systems are among the most complex man-made physical systems. As
a result, they require extensive computational methods for planning and
real-time operations. When the electric industry was a regulated monopoly,
typical utility control centers had well-established methods of monitoring,
decisionmaking, and system control--methods that hinged on the assumption
that operators knew the characteristics of the system and could determine
generation usage in a coordinated way. Under those conditions, the main
objective was to generate and deliver sufficient power to meet the forecasted
demand at minimum cost. The operator did not engage in real-time decisionmaking,
except when the system was under stress due to equipment outages or unusual
deviations in electricity demand. During such times, electricity costs
went up; but typical consumers had no means of monitoring changes in price
and therefore had no incentive to reduce their demand. To ensure reliability,
the industry maintained extra generation reserves, resulting in more expensive
electricity overall.
Now
the structure of the electric industry has changed. In response to new
regulations, the industry is becoming competitive. Many suppliers offer
power that varies in price and in the future perhaps quality (for example,
ranges of voltage and rate of interruption). In response, consumers can
(potentially) adjust their demand according to their needs and market prices.
Such competition is expected to materialize at both the wholesale (utility-to-utility)
and the retail (local utility) levels.
The
restructuring process raises new questions about the technological paradigms
needed to facilitate a truly competitive electric power industry. Significant
breakthroughs at the individual equipment level are making competitive
power supply a reality. Smaller, cost-effective power plants and systems
based on various sustainable resources are coming into use. But countless
market imperfections remain in the evolving industry. Notable examples
include potential market domination by providers of electricity and of
transmission services and a lack of choice on the consumer's side.
Many
of those problems can be alleviated by providing information technology
(IT) support by which individual players--competitive power suppliers,
consumers, and power-delivery companies--are provided Internet-assisted
on-line information tools. These tools furnish each decentralized provider
and user with information on the status of delivery systems and other system
characteristics and with market mechanisms for buying and selling delivery
service. Only through the introduction of systematic IT support can competitive
electric power systems reach their full potential.
Much
research is needed to develop and implement such IT tools. Developing technologies
that facilitate consumers' on-line decisionmaking is essential to keep
power suppliers from controlling the competitive environment. Perhaps even
more challenging is finding ways to manage the delivery system flexibly,
based on the value it provides to its users. Preventing transmission congestion,
for example, requires both theoretical advances that permit on-line pricing
for transmission use and technological innovations that provide direct
control of power flows. Implementation of those methods will require an
on-line Internet-assisted information backbone.
Our
Energy Laboratory research group is currently working on these problems.
We are developing IT tools that will permit decentralized decision-making
at the supply and demand levels, and we are formulating separate IT tools
that will support power delivery. Challenges include separating those two
functions yet ensuring that together they will work to maximize the performance
of the industry as a whole. Complicating our endeavor is the lack of financial
incentives for ensuring that the evolving electricity markets perform well.
After all, markets thrive on arbitrage and uncertainties. Use of IT tools
will bring electricity markets closer to "perfect" competition, a situation
in which financial rewards can be reaped only by those who provide the
value.
Marija Ilic, senior research scientist in the Department of Electrical Engineering
and Computer Science, is investigating new concepts for the operation and
management of competitive power systems. Of special interest are software
and hardware to accomplish the real-time operation of the industry while
influencing longer-term technological and investment factors.
[Back to Table of Contents]
Clean Energy Technologies and Global Sustainability
William A. Peters
Abundant,
stable energy supplies at manageable prices have enabled remarkable economic
and social progress in the developed world. Yet slovenly use of energy
has polluted our air, water, and land, and wasted natural resources. Consequently,
our global economy faces an energy-prosperity-environmental dilemma, namely,
how to provide energy-derived benefits to all people and preserve the earth
for future generations. Sustainable energy can be defined as new paradigms
for energy supply, use, and conservation that solve this dilemma. Sustainability
strategies will nimbly blend stakeholder-sensitive public policies and
technologies. Clean energy technologies will catalyze global sustainability
by reducing pollution, improving energy efficiency, and expanding economical
use of renewable resources. Breakthrough opportunities include:
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Biotic
Oil Refineries. The astonishing progress in biotechnology suggests
breeding new plants that grow rapidly, perhaps in saline or polluted waters,
and that regularly secrete premium fuels or chemicals that would be tapped
and collected as is sap from a maple tree. In effect, each plant would
be a miniature oil well and refinery, using sunlight to convert water and
carbon dioxide (CO2)
to useful products such as gasoline and home heating oil. This idea is
not new. In the 1970s, Professor Melvin Calvin and his colleagues at the
University of California at Berkeley studied the growth of rubber-like
plants that produce hydrocarbon-like liquids.
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The
Energy Superhighway. Solar radiation is rather weak. Thus, huge remote
areas are needed to collect enough energy for major urban areas. A century
ago, broadbanding communication signals around the globe was unimaginable.
Today we can hardly keep pace with the extraordinary progress in "info-tech"
hardware and software. Scientists may someday create a worldwide energy
superhighway to move energy, just as the Internet and wireless technologies
move information today. Advances in materials and information technology
may provide novel devices that allow large-area solar-collection farms
to "rebroadcast" their energy to central "relay stations" for eventual
transshipment to major user centers.
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Electrification
of the Process Industries. Electricity has flexible sources and enables
useful chemistries. It rearranges chemical bonds (electrochemistry), generates
high temperatures without burning fuel (hot and cold plasmas), and synergistically
joins forces with light (photoelectrochemistry), as when plants convert
sunlight, CO2, and
water to carbohydrates (photosynthesis). In the future, we may employ artificial
photosynthesis to manufacture valuable fuels and chemicals using solar
and other light sources. We may also use controlled sparks (electrical
discharges) and novel electrochemistries to manufacture metals more efficiently
and economically and to generate clean fuels, chemical feedstocks, and
molecular hydrogen (H2)
from diverse raw materials, for example, biomass, coal, and heavy oil.
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The
"Just-in-Time" Global Energy Supermarket. Tomorrow's energy industry
may link suppliers and customers thousands of miles apart. We may generate
electricity for the United States at hydro stations in far Northern Canada,
for Europe at solar photovoltaic farms in the Sahara Desert, and for the
Asian Rim at geothermal energy "plantations" in Indonesia. Energy brokers
may "surf" vendors to provide consumers green energy at optimal prices.
Novel robotics, sensors, and information technologies will automate remote
generating stations and customer service. Superconducting cables and perhaps
electromagnetic waves and mechanical vibrations (sound) will efficiently
transmit electricity underground and underwater.
-
Green
Earth Science. We may someday process fuels, store CO2,
and generate energy beneath the ground or the oceans. First we must learn
how to protect those delicate ecosystems during grand-scale human interventions,
that is, we must master green earth science. Then we can access a vast
new energy source. Under the earth and oceans, deposits of natural gas
that may exceed all the world's other fossil fuels combined are locked
up in crystalline solid cages of frozen water called hydrates. We need
clever ways to economically degas hydrates in situ and to harvest
the gas or use it in place.
-
Converting
Natural Gas to Liquid Fuels. Natural gas is abundant, but many important
deposits are thousands of miles from users. New chemistries that use "designer
catalysts" and smart process engineering enabled by mathematical simulation
of chemical reactions, process reactors, and materials may allow us to
economically convert natural gas to clean liquids equal to or better than
petroleum-based gasoline and diesel fuel.
-
Energy
Storage. Energy storage is crucial to expanded use of renewable energy
and electric vehicles. Advances in nanotechnology and molecular design
of materials may lead to robust devices that store electricity and H2
compactly and cheaply.
In
summary, novel clean energy technologies are expected to help humans wisely
shepherd the earth's energy and environmental resources.
William A. Peters is associate director for fuels and environmental research in
the Energy Laboratory. He leads research on applications of thermal processing
and electrothermal processing to energy and environmental problems. His
current interests are sustainable utilization of natural resources, for
example, biomass, mineral ores, fuels, and water.
[Back to Table of Contents]
Using Carbon Fuels Without Carbon Emissions
Howard J. Herzog
No
single strategy will enable us to meet the world's growing demand for affordable
energy and simultaneously reduce greenhouse gas emissions, notably carbon
dioxide (CO2). Improving
energy efficiency and increasing the use of renewable energy sources will
be helpful but not sufficient, and nuclear energy is unlikely to become
politically viable any time soon. Supplies of fossil fuels will remain
plentiful and relatively inexpensive, so there will be pressure to use
them. Therefore, another strategy should be considered for our arsenal
of technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions: capturing CO2
emissions from electric power plants and other stationary sources and injecting
it into the ocean or underground. Energy Laboratory researchers have been
examining this method of carbon management for the past ten years, and
international interest in this approach is now growing rapidly.
Three
key challenges must be addressed to make carbon capture and sequestration
a reality in the coming decades. First, we need to show that CO2
can be sequestered underground or in the deep ocean in a safe, effective,
and environmentally sound manner. Pumping CO2
into the ground is already common practice at many oil fields. Therefore,
for underground storage, the primary concern is the long-term stability
of any geologic formation being considered as a reservoir. For ocean disposal,
the method of injection is critical. Captured CO2
can be dissolved at moderate depths to form a dilute solution or injected
deeper to create a CO2
lake. Research is needed to determine which method would best sequester
the CO2 while minimizing
impacts on ecosystems. A primary concern is the effect on the ocean's acidity
and hence on local organisms. Developing the needed knowledge will require
research on multiple scales, from exploration of the basic mechanisms of
sequestration in the various reservoirs up to demonstration projects--large-scale
undertakings that will require industry and government leadership.
A
second challenge is to reduce the cost of the capture and sequestration
process. Concern focuses on the cost of capturing CO2
from exhaust gases--the most expensive step in the overall process. Current
methods of separating CO2
were developed decades ago for other applications. Optimizing them for
use on exhaust gases will lower costs. In the longer run, larger cost reductions
are possible by redesigning electric power plants and other stationary
sources and by developing novel CO2-capture
technologies. The overall economics of CO2
capture and sequestration can also be improved by using the captured CO2,
but current markets for CO2
are very limited. A second challenge is to reduce the cost of the capture
and sequestration process. Concern focuses on the cost of capturing CO2
from exhaust gases--the most expensive step in the overall process. Current
methods of separating CO2
were developed decades ago for other applications. Optimizing them for
use on exhaust gases will lower costs. In the longer run, larger cost reductions
are possible by redesigning electric power plants and other stationary
sources and by developing novel CO2-capture
technologies. The overall economics of CO2
capture and sequestration can also be improved by using the captured CO2,
but current markets for CO2
are very limited.
The
final challenge is to gain public acceptance of CO2
capture and sequestration. A first step is to publicize activities already
under way. For example, since 1996 Statoil of Norway has been storing CO2
from the Sleipner West gas field in a sandstone aquifer beneath the North
Sea. In other parts of the world, companies are now undertaking similar
projects. Over time, the most effective means of building public confidence
will be by consistently conducting our research and communicating the results
in an objective and open manner.
Howard J. Herzog, principal research engineer in the Energy Laboratory, leads
the Laboratory's research program on CO2
capture and sequestration from large stationary sources. He also performs
research on industrial energy use in energy-intensive industries, geothermal
energy with an emphasis on enhanced geothermal systems, and supercritical
water oxidation and other environmental remediation technologies.
[Back to Table of Contents]
Energy Education for the 21st Century
Elisabeth M. Drake
Basic
research is expanding our knowledge frontiers in many exciting areas: biosciences
and engineering, nanoscale phenomena, surface sciences, communications
and systems engineering, and others. At the same time, our world is moving
toward a global economy and is struggling with such complex issues as global
environmental management, social equity, and political stability. In the
future, graduates of schools like MIT will have to function not only with
a deep understanding of fundamental sciences but also with knowledge of
the broad context for applying science and technology in society. Most
of them will have careers that require effective interaction across disciplines
and cultures as well as leadership skills to steer responsible application
of science and technology to provide a better future for the world community.
Nowhere
today are the synergies between science and society more apparent than
in the field of energy. Three years ago, Energy Laboratory colleagues began
teaching a graduate course designed to strike a balance among the topics
of energy, economics, society, and the environment. "Sustainable Energy"
is an interdepartmental elective popular among MIT students interested
in both engineering and policy. Several students from Harvard University's
Kennedy School of Government have also participated. In this course, a
culturally diverse, multinational group of students and selected outside
experts focus not only on solid technical material but also on the broad
spectrum of issues surrounding energy use--economics, environmental impacts,
societal impacts, mobility, urbanization, and so on. The resulting learning
interactions have enriched and educated all participants far beyond original
expectations.
Similar
experimental courses are now springing up at MIT and elsewhere. These ventures
demonstrate that meeting the educational needs of the future will require
a diverse academic community, comprising both research specialists and
others who are drawn to tackling complex interdisciplinary problems. But
the time is ripe now for broad rethinking of graduate and undergraduate
curricula relating to societal applications of technology and policy. I
can see development of a graduate energy "track" that integrates and refines
existing classes in technology, systems management, regional planning,
and environmental economics. There are likely to be similar tracks relating
to building and transportation systems, water management, etc. The academic
community will need to plan and adapt and improve these curricula that
cross traditional departmental lines just as carefully as departments now
develop disciplinary curricula. Filtering elements of these interdepartmental
curricula down to undergraduate and even high school levels is another
important challenge.
Classrooms
of the future will no doubt benefit from the information revolution, and
I am sure the delivery of education in 2020 will be quite different from
that of today. Telecommunications is already providing a hint of things
to come. By participating in interactive, classroom-like discussions, business
and governmental leaders as well as traditional students are attaining
new skills and knowledge not provided by their conventional educational
backgrounds. As we consider such methods, let us not forget the other important
part of a college education--the living environment. Here is a great training
ground for learning teamwork, the taking and sharing of responsibility,
conflict resolution, leadership, and tolerance and respect.
The
world will always need inquisitive scientists who advance the frontiers
of knowledge, and MIT is preeminent in educating such leaders. Education
for future practitioners of science and technology poses a greater challenge.
Such practitioners must learn how to achieve a balance between providing
technical depth and understanding of contextual issues; between vying competitively
for personal achievement and contributing effectively as a team member;
between pursuing career and corporate goals and the goals of the "community"
on local, regional, and global scales. I trust that MIT will continue to
apply its leadership and creativity in shaping an innovative educational
agenda for the world's next generation of leaders and practitioners.
Elisabeth M. Drake, associate director for new technologies at the Energy Laboratory,
conducts research on new technology development in light of the growing
importance of environmental sustainability and resource conservation in
internationally competitive markets.
[Back to Table of Contents]
From the Editors . . .
We
would like to thank you for your continuing interest in e-lab, the
Energy Laboratory, and energy-related research at MIT. If you would like
to comment on this issue or on e-lab in general, please write to
us at the address on the last page or e-mail us at <stauffer@mit.edu>.
We
would like to thank Stephen R. Connors for conceiving of this issue, for
helping in the editorial process, and for taking all the photos.
Nancy W. Stauffer, editor
Karen K. Luxton, associate editor
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