Home Mission 2007 Team Members Research Sources Progress Journal	Research - Value of the hydrocarbons in the 1002 Area of ANWR The price of the hydrocarbons in the world market is a crucial determining factor in the 'value' of the 'potential' for the ANWR region, as this is the factor that will ultimately make the distinction between drilling or not drilling in a cost-benefit analysis. According to the Bloomberg energy prices, the current value of hydrocarbons are: Petroleum ($/bbl) Type Price Change % Change Time Nymex Crude 30.16 -0.14 -0.46 10/24 IPE Crude 28.58 -0.05 -0.17 10/24 Dated Brent 30.02 0.55 1.87 10/24 WTI Crushing 29.98 -0.14 -0.46 10/24 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) Type Price Change % Change Time Nymex Henry Hub 4.79 -0.13 -2.58 10/24 Henry Hub 4.8 -0.11 -2.24 10/24 NYC Gate 5.12 -0.4 -7.25 10/24 (these values are mirrored in other economic sources, such as the Economist, and so can be considered trust worthy as- after all- it is the news agency's job to deliver the most accurate pricing for such a hot commodity). As the numbers above demonstrate, there are different types of oil and natural gas that sell for different prices. These prices are, however, very near each other, and so in the long run can be considered the 'same price.' According to the OPEC tables of 'global oil trends' the lowest value of oil is around $20 a barrel and the highest value peaks nearer to $35 a barrel. This figure is subject to change due to political events, fluctuating oil reserves/ production, and to the health of the oil market at the time. A concrete formula for the 'future value of oil' has not yet been found: as a result, an applet is being made that will return the 'value' of ANWR if inputted a range of prices and volumes. The revenue estimates would be equal to the volume of oil/gas extracted multiplied by the value of unit volume. This is under calculation right now; take Andrew's table and multiply it by the lower value, middle value, and upper value, and that will give the overall worth. The "cost estimates" referred to in the Definition of an A refer to the collaboration with Team 8 in comparing the cost of drilling (which Team E will provide) with the potential value of the hydrocarbons that Team 1 will provide. At this time, since the strategy is not made, this is not possible to estimate.
Team 1 - m2007-1@mit.edu